598
FXUS64 KSJT 011842
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
142 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Late Thursday afternoon, a dryline will be situated across our
central counties. Meanwhile a cold front will be across the Big
Country and is forecast to slowly move south through the evening
hours, then stall somewhere across our central or southern counties.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during
the evening hours, ahead of the front and east of the dryline. Most
of this activity should be confined to our eastern counties. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with large hail and
damaging winds being the main hazards.

Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s across the Big
Country, behind the weak cold front, and in the upper 80s to lower
90s elsewhere. Overall, drier conditions are forecast on Friday,
although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible with the remnant cold front in the region.

Saturday into Sunday, West Central Texas will be in the southwest
flow aloft, with a weak remnant cold front in the region. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible both days, with the higher rain
chances across the Big Country. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
with any thunderstorms. Highs will be slightly cooler, generally in
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Drier conditions are expected next week
with much warmer temperatures. Highs by Tuesday will be in the low
to mid 90s, with highs on Wednesday in the approaching the upper 90s
in some locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Mainly looking at VFR ceilings around 5K feet this afternoon,
with south to southeast winds gusting 20 to 25 knots. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline to our
west late this afternoon and move east across the terminals
through the evening hours. Some of the storms may become strong
to severe, with damaging winds and hail the main hazards. Will
maintain TEMPO groups at the terminals for convection based on
latest high resolution model data. Convection will end from west
to east between 05Z-07Z. Expect MVFR ceilings to develop across
the terminals late tonight into Thursday morning, with some
possible IFR ceilings across the southern terminals after 10Z. For
now, will keep ceilings MVFR due to lower confidence in IFR
conditions

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     64  90  62  86 /  70  10  20  30
San Angelo  64  94  65  91 /  80  10   0  30
Junction    66  90  69  92 /  70  10  10  30
Brownwood   65  86  66  85 /  90  20  20  20
Sweetwater  64  90  62  86 / 100  10  10  30
Ozona       66  92  65  89 /  40  10   0  30
Brady       66  87  67  86 /  80  10  10  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...24