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000
FXUS64 KSJT 241144
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
644 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Isolated thunderstorms developing off the dryline in the eastern
Permian Basin and South Plains this afternoon, may move east into
the Big Country and northern Concho Valley this evening. With GFS
MUCAPES of 2000 to 2500 J/KG and 0-6 bulk shears of 40 KTS, some
storms could be severe. With fewer short range CAMS models
indicating convection, however, confidence in storm development is
less than Tuesday. Hail up to 2 inches and winds up to 70 mph
possible.

It will be otherwise another warm day with highs in the 80s.
Areas from the Concho Valley could hit 90 degrees. Southerly winds
will continue to advect moisture into the region with redevelopment
of low clouds again tonight. Mild tonight with lows in the mid an
upper 60...as clouds and south winds of 10 to 20 mph keep
the atmosphere mixed and temperatures up.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...Severe thunderstorms possible Thursday night...

A negatively tilted shortwave trough will lift northeast from
the Desert Southwest Thursday morning and into the central/southern
Plains by early Friday morning. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop west of the area along the dryline Thursday evening, as
lift increases ahead of the shortwave. Thunderstorms are expected
to increase in coverage across West Central Texas mainly after
midnight, as the dryline/Pacific front advance eastward. Ample low
level moisture, coupled with strong deep layer shear will support
some severe storms well into the overnight hours, with the
greatest threat expected from the Concho Valley northward into
the Big Country. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary hazards, although a couple of tornadoes will be possible
as low level shear increases with a strengthening low level jet.
Thunderstorms are expected to end early Friday morning, as storms
move off to the east.

Another upper level trough will develop over the Desert Southwest
early Saturday and is forecast to lift northeast into the
central/southern Plains late Saturday night and early Sunday. This
system will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the area Saturday
into early Sunday, along with another threat for some severe
storms.

Still looks like mainly quiet weather for the area early next
week, with thunderstorms possible again by mid week as yet another
shortwave develops southwest of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

MVFR stratus (and likely IFR status at KSOA) this morning will
scatter out early afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm is possible
near KABI this evening, but will not include due to low chances.
MVFR stratus otherwise returns late evening and overnight across
the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     83  67  84  63 /   0  20  10  80
San Angelo  89  68  85  63 /   0   0  10  60
Junction    88  68  88  67 /   0   0  10  30
Brownwood   82  67  82  64 /   0  10  10  70
Sweetwater  83  67  82  62 /  10  20  20  70
Ozona       86  67  82  63 /   0   0  10  40
Brady       83  68  83  66 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...04