054
FNUS75 KTFX 131128
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Dalton Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
528 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MDT on May 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Warmth continues today ahead of a cold front that will sweep
through the area on Tuesday. Expect mostly dry conditions through
the morning, but the afternoon will bring the development of a few
showers and thunderstorms in the area. Expect showers and
thunderstorms to begin to develop over the mountains around 1400,
with some of the showers and storms producing some gusty and
erratic outflow winds. The threat of showers and thunderstorms
will continue through the overnight and into the day on Tuesday,
with winds shifting from the west to the north around sunrise on
Tuesday. Rain showers will taper off Tuesday evening as drier air
works into the area.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
CWR.................15 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....62-67.
Min humidity........27-32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......9000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers overnight.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....40-45.
Max humidity........73-78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 15 mph.
Haines Index........

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the morning, then rain showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................30 percent.
LAL.................3.
Max temperature.....54-59.
Min humidity........46-51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds around 10 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 15 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Ludwig
Requested by...Nick Boucher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413871.0/TFX
.DELDT 05/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nicholas.boucher@usda.gov,dillon.krier@usda.gov,jarel.kurtz@usda.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov