661
FXUS21 KWNC 031836
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT May 03 2024

SYNOPSIS: Mid-level high pressure over the West Coast and surface high pressure
over the Great Plains results in a relatively tranquil period of weather for
week-2. High temperatures and continued rainfall deficits lead to a risk for
rapid onset drought (ROD) for portions of central Florida.

HAZARDS

Rapid onset drought possible for portions of central Florida.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR MONDAY MAY 06 - FRIDAY MAY 10:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR SATURDAY MAY 11 - FRIDAY MAY 17: At the outset of week-2 ensemble models
favor moderate ridging(troughing) over the West Coast(Great Lakes) as depicted
by 500-hPa height anomalies. Model solutions dampen both features over the
course of week-2, with weak positive height anomalies and mostly zonal flow
over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) by the end of the forecast period. At the
surface, building high pressure is favored over the Great Plains, which will
help to bring cooler temperatures for the southern CONUS. Positive height
anomalies over the Pacific Northwest at the outset of the forecast period are
favored to bring much warmer-than-normal temperatures to portions of Washington
and Oregon, however these are not expected to exceed hazardous thresholds so no
hazard is posted.



In Alaska, as we move into the middle of May snowmelt season is underway and
frozen rivers are beginning to break up. This leads to the potential for river
flooding related to ice-jams. We continue to monitor the situation but
currently there are no indications of impending major river break-ups or
serious threat of ice-jamming so no flooding-related hazards are posted at this
time.



In Florida, above-normal temperatures and near- to below-normal precipitation
is forecast during week-1 and into week-2. In parts of the central Florida
peninsula soil moisture levels are declining due to limited precipitation in
recent weeks and months. Abnormal dryness (D0) has been developing and
expanding across this region. As we approach the middle of May, increasing sun
angles and temperatures in the 80-90 Deg F could lead to further drying of
soils and potentially lead to drought conditions across this region. Therefore,
an area of rapid onset drought (ROD) is posted for portions of central Florida.

FORECASTER: Danny Barandiaran

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