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FGUS61 KTIR 271521
ESGTIR
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
1115 AM EDT Wednesday March 27 2024

...Flood Potential across the Ohio Valley for the next two weeks is near normal
to slightly below normal...

...Flood Potential for the next 90-days is near normal to slightly below for
the Ohio Valley...

PAST PRECIPITATION THE LAST 14 DAYS...
Over the last 14 days, rainfall across the Ohio Valley generally ranged from
0.50-3.00 inches (25 to 200 percent of normal).  The heaviest amounts fell
across middle Tennessee, northern Indiana, northern Ohio and western
Pennsylvania. Southern Indiana and western Kentucky were the driest.

For more information please visit:
https://water.weather.gov/precip

SOIL MOISTURE...
Current soil moisture conditions are generally below normal across the region.

State rankings:
Southeast Illinois - Below normal
Indiana - Below normal
Ohio - Below normal
Western Pennsylvania - Near normal
West Virginia - Near normal
Kentucky - Below normal
Tennessee - Below normal

For more information please visit:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/Monitoring/smp.shtml

USGS STREAMFLOWS...
Current streamflows are generally below normal across the Ohio Valley with some
areas near normal.

State rankings:
Southeast Illinois - Below normal
Indiana - Below normal
Ohio - Below normal with pockets of above normal east from rainfall over the
last day
Western Pennsylvania - Below normal
West Virginia - Below normal
Kentucky - Below normal
Tennessee - Near normal

For more information please visit:
https://watermonitor.gov

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...
Reservoir levels are near the normal winter pool levels across the Ohio Valley.

OHIO RIVER FLOWS...
Current flows along the Ohio River are below normal.

Values are in percent of normal with above 100% are above normal and below 100%
are below normal.

Pittsburgh -  70%
Huntington -  70%
Cincinnati -  60%
Louisville -  50%
Evansville -  50%
Smithland  -  50%

SNOW WATER CONTENT IN SNOWPACK...
Currently no snow pack exists across the Ohio Valley.

For more information please visit:
https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa

ICE COVER...
No ice cover is present across the Ohio Valley.

2-WEEK FUTURE RAINFALL AND FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

The two-week flood outlook is near normal across the Ohio Valley.

Rainfall potential is slightly above normal in the northern basin and normal in
the south.

Flood potential is near normal across the Ohio Valley.  Upcoming rains will be
counteracted by spring green up and growth.


OHIO RIVER AVERAGE FLOW FORECASTS THE NEXT 2 WEEKS...
The Ohio River flow forecasts are expected to be return to near normal over the
next 14 days.

Values are in percent of normal with greater than 100% being above normal and
values below 100% being below normal.

Pittsburgh - 100%
Huntington - 100%
Cincinnati - 110%
Louisville - 110%
Evansville - 110%
Smithland  -  90%

For more information on the 10-day flood risk potential please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs

Official forecasts can be found at:
https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc

90 DAY FLOOD OUTLOOK

The flood outlook for the next 90 days acorss the Ohio Valley continues to
favor
normal to slightly below normal flood risk.

STATE BY STATE 90-DAY EXPECTED RIVER FLOOD RISK...
Southeast Illinois - Minor flooding possible
Indiana - Minor to isolate moderate flooding possible
Ohio - Minor flooding possible
Western Pennsylvania - Isolated minor flooding possible
Southwestern New York - Isolated minor flooding possible
West Virginia - Minor flooding possible
Western Virginia - Minor flooding possible
Kentucky - Minor flooding flooding
Tennessee - Isolated minor flooding

For more information on the 90-day flood risk please visit:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps/long_range.php

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

Flood risk is defined as follows:
Below normal - flooding will be limited
Normal - minor flooding in the typical locations
Above normal - widespread flooding with some moderate or major possible

Winter/spring flood outlooks are issued weekly by the National
Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center during winter and early spring to
summarize basin hydrological and meteorological conditions. It also assesses the
potential for flood risk. The outlooks are based on current and forecast
conditions.

The Ohio River Forecast Center also issues a 30-90 day water resources
outlook monthly throughout the year for a continuous water watch. This
can be found at https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/wro

Factors considered in assessing flood potential include antecedent
conditions, past precipitation, current streamflows and reservoir levels,
soil moisture, water content in snow cover, ice conditions and future
precipitation.


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