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000
FXUS63 KTOP 201916
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
216 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near freezing temperatures tonight.

- An active week ahead with several chances for rain and
  thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

By this evening and into Sunday morning, surface high pressure
builds in. With light wind and clouds slowly clearing from north
to south, we could see temperatures near freezing along the
NE/KS border. While a fairly dry boundary-layer is currently
forecast by several of the short-term models (HRRR/RAP), there
may be some patchy frost around by Sunday morning.

High pressure quickly moves out Sunday and return flow develops
by the evening. A tight pressure gradient develops Monday,
leading to gusty south/southwest winds Monday afternoon. The
gusty wind and mostly clear sky will aid in a quick warmup
Monday with highs returning to the 70s area-wide. A cold front
is still on track to move through Monday night into Tuesday
morning, but with limited moisture advection ahead of the
front, instability and precipitation amounts will likely be
minimal. Some isolated thunderstorms may develop, but rain
showers appear more likely at this time.

As we approach the end of the work week, rain and storm chances
will increase as a deep upper-level wave ejects out of the
southwestern US. A few mid-level waves embedded in
southwesterly flow ahead of the upper low could bring some early
elevated rain and storm chances Thursday morning before the
main waves enters the region. Shear and instability needed for
severe weather should co-locate somewhere across the central
Plains as this system moves east, but is still too far out to
pin down exact timing and location of any severe weather threat.
Long range deterministic guidance does have decent agreement
with the synoptic-scale features, but still has a wide range of
timing solutions for when the mesoscale features pass over
northeastern Kansas. There will likely be many changes to
location and timing of rain and storm chances over the next
several days, so make sure to stay updated with the latest
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with scattered to
broken high clouds and light northerly wind.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ036-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones