201
FXUS64 KTSA 291710
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1210 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1012 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Visibilities continue to improve this morning across the area
so the Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire at 15z. Cloud cover
in the areas that saw fog earlier will also continue to give way
to a mostly sunny/sunny sky by early afternoon so going afternoon
max temperatures look good. Main adjustments to this update were
to tweak sky cover through 18z and remove fog headlines from the zone
text. Rest of first period elements look good as well.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Quiet weather will continue for much of Tuesday, with temperatures
surging into the low to mid 80s as southerly flow resumes. By
Tuesday evening a boundary will sag into northeast OK, with at least
a low end chance of a few showers and thunderstorms north of this
boundary. Heading into Wednesday this boundary will mostly wash out,
but better forcing will arrive as a shortwave ejects from a trough
in the west into the area. This will keep the chance of showers and
thunderstorms going, with 15-30 PoPs across the area. Model
soundings show good instability and sufficient wind shear to support
a low end severe threat, but the highest threat will likely remain
west of the area.

The western trough will move into the northern Plains Thursday, with
a sharp shortwave rounding the base of this trough. This will
greatly increase wind shear and lift Thursday, but will also send a
strong cold front into the region. Much more widespread
precipitation is expected to develop with scattered to numerous
thunderstorms. This is most likely the best chance for severe
weather during the next week. Some lingering showers could
continue into Friday before we get another break from the action.

Cooler and drier weather will settle into the area by later Friday
and Saturday. Heading into Sunday and Monday ensemble guidance
indicates another weather system could impact the area, bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Initial MVFR cigs at KMLC and KFYV will scatter out within
the first hour or two of the valid period. Thereafter at
those sites and at the remaining sites through the entire
period, VFR TAF elements will prevail

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  85  64  85 /   0  10  20  30
FSM   58  87  63  87 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   59  85  66  84 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   53  85  61  85 /   0  10  30  40
FYV   54  83  61  85 /   0   0  10  20
BYV   53  83  60  85 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   56  83  63  84 /   0   0  10  20
MIO   54  83  62  85 /   0   0  20  30
F10   57  83  64  83 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   58  84  64  82 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...23