389
FXUS64 KTSA 281729
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The back edge of an expansive area of showers and a isolated
thunderstorms currently extends from SE OK through NW AR. This
trend will continue into the early to mid afternoon hours when
at that time focus will be on additional convection that develops
along the dryline/cold front. While redevelopment is likely later
this afternoon with increasing coverage as the boundary pushes
east, the amount of destabilization that occurs remains in
question. This may be a limiting factor for overall severe
potential. Additional heavy rainfall remains possible this
afternoon and evening from SE OK through NW AR with the stronger
activity. Combined with previous rainfall, the flood threat will
be maintained into this evening in these locations. Therefore, the
flood watch has been extended to 06z Monday. Further back to the
west. Storm coverage is expected to remain limited, so the flood
watch has been cancelled. This update mainly reflects adjusting
PoPs through 00z and removing/extending flood headlines as needed.
At this time, will leave temperatures and the rest of the first
period elements as they are.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly...Updated FFA already sent.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A quiet night will be on tap into Monday morning, with cooler low
temperatures expected, mostly in the 50s. Monday will be mild and
dry with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Temperatures will warm
further Tuesday, with low to mid 80s expected.

A broad and deep trough will settle across the Great Basin and
northern Great Plains by Tuesday evening, continuing into the
weekend before it finally lifts out. This will induce a prolonged
period of moist southerly flow with periodic upper level ascent,
with the forecast area on the edge of the right entrance region of
the upper level jet. Showers and thunderstorms may develop along
weak frontal features that will move into the area Tuesday evening
and Wednesday. More widespread and substantial precipitation is
then anticipated Thursday and Friday as a stronger cold front
pushes south into the area. There is some potential for severe
weather during this period given the unstable airmass, good wind
shear, and decent forcing. The exact details of any severe weather
will come down to smaller scale details that we won`t know for a
few more days. Cooler and drier weather is then expected by next
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Thr focus for additional rain and storms will come later this
afternoon and continue into the evening so will tempo thunder from
late afternoon and into the evening at KMLC and all AR sites with
MVFR cigs and vsbys. Expect MVFR cigs to prevail across the AR
sites after 05z. Across the NE OK sites, conditions are expected
to improve VFR in time with storm coverage later today expected
to remain east of KBVO/KTUL/KRVS. Will include a period of MVFR
vsbys in fog after 09z at KMLC/KBVO and KRVS as clearing skies,
light winds and saturated grounds will support fog potential.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  81  59  86 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   62  83  58  87 /  60  10   0  10
MLC   59  83  59  84 /  20  10   0  10
BVO   49  79  55  86 /  10   0  10  10
FYV   57  80  55  85 /  60  10   0  10
BYV   58  78  54  84 /  70  10   0   0
MKO   57  80  57  84 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   53  78  55  83 /  30   0   0  10
F10   57  80  58  84 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   60  81  59  81 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ049-053-058-063-068-069-
     072-074>076.

AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...23