719
FXUS65 KVEF 190923
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
224 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds increase through the weekend and Monday
with the strongest winds expected to occur in San Bernardino County.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible again today, but will mainly
be confined to Lincoln County and the Sierra crest. Temperatures
will decrease as an upper level trough moves into the area leading
to near normal temperatures by Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Monday.

An upper level trough moving into the western US will bring
increasing southwest to west winds, cooler temperatures, and a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to portions of central
Nevada and the Sierra crest. Most of the area will see breezy
conditions through the afternoon, but surface pressure gradients are
expected to tighten this evening and bring increasing winds to areas
across San Bernardino, Clark, and Mohave Counties. Most areas will
see winds increasing to 20-30 mph, but some areas across western San
Bernardino County will see winds 30-40 mph. The latest NBM gives
Barstow about a 50-55% chance of winds reaching 40 mph, a 20-25%
chance of winds reaching 45 mph, and less than 10% chance of winds
reaching 50 mph. Like the previous shift mentioned uncertainty does
remain in the spatial extent and duration of 40+ mph wind gusts, as
well as their impact to population centers and roadways. Have
elected to hold off on any wind advisories at this point. The nice
convergence boundary that brought showers and thunderstorms to
central Nevada and northern Inyo County has weakened and shifted
east, however, there will be enough moisture and instability
remaining to bring a few isolated showers and possible thunderstorms
to portions of Lincoln County and the Sierra crest this afternoon,
but overall coverage will be a lot lower than Saturday.

With the trough axis swinging through the region Monday we will
continue to see a few showers over portions of Lincoln County along
with gusty afternoon southwest winds. Once again, most areas will
see winds Monday afternoon 20-30 mph with western San Bernardino
County seeing winds gusting up to 40 mph.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday.

As one trough exits the area Tuesday, another system digging south
down the British Columbia coast will reestablish the longwave trough
across the west heading into the Memorial Day Weekend. Both the GEFS
and EPS maintain H5 heights below normal through at least Saturday.
Temperatures will be at or below normal during the period. Should be
windy at times with gusts 30 to 40 mph at times across the western
Mojave Desert of San Bernardino County and the southern Sierra.
Elsewhere, it will be breezy with gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range.
For the time being, any precipitation chances stay across central
Nevada but may sag as far south as the panhandle of Lincoln County
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will become light and
variable after 12Z this morning then south-southwest winds will
increase with gusts 20-25 knots early this afternoon through this
evening. No operationally significant clouds are expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty west to southwest winds will pick up again over
most of the region early this afternoon, with the strongest
afternoon gusts 30-35 knots in the Barstow area. There could also be
brief downslope winds and rotors on the east side of mountain ranges
such as the Sierra Nevada and the Spring Mountains on the west side
of Las Vegas. Isolated afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will be confined to eastern Nevada between Pioche and
Ely with clouds bases around 15 kft MSL.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gorelow
LONG TERM...Pierce
AVIATION...Adair

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