Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 240523 AAD
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION. WIND
ADVISORY FOR BROWN/SPINK COUNTIES WESTWARD WILL BE TAKEN DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT...WHILE THE WIND ADVISORY FURTHER EAST AND THE FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY CONTINUE.

SECOND UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADD FREEZING PRECIP PHENOMENON TO WX
GRIDS AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF SODAK AND WC MN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GETTING
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. AND THEN LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHASE THE FZ RN
THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT.

FIRST UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP THE WIND ADV HEADLINE FROM THE
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHICH WAS DUE TO GO AWAY AT 03Z ANYWAY.
IF WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE
WIND ADVISORY FROM THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES AT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN STRONG CAA SEQUENCE. RADAR/OBS
SUGGEST A FEW POCKETS OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS(AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT KMBG/KPIR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF THESE TWO TERMINALS. MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT
KABR/KATY WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS SAME CLOUD EDGE
PUSHES THROUGH THESE TWO TERMINALS. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND
TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER.
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO MONDAY BEFORE
SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR GRANT-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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