Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 130843
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
343 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD SPELL WILL COMMENCE DURING THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO WILL SLIDE S-SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR FROM
NORTHERN CANADA INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY IS SHOWING TEMPS
AT 850 MB/700 MB/500 MB RANGING BETWEEN 2 TO NEARLY 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THUS IT SHOULD COME AS NO SURPRISE THE
REGION IS LOOKING AT RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS ON
MONDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RECORD TO
NEAR RECORD LOWS TUESDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH KPIR AND
KMBG WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING RECORD LOWS.

WITH A SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 MONDAY AFTERNOON IS THE ONLY TIME PERIOD
FOR PCPN.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MEANS COOLER TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE EARLY
PART OF THE EXTENDED. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
IN MOVING A LOW OFF THE ROCKIES BY THE WEEKEND...BUT JUST HOW
LIKELY POPS WILL BE OVER THIS CWA IS NOT AS CLEAR. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE
ECMWF BUILDS IN ANOTHER SFC HIGH.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE. LOOK
FOR NW WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT DURING THE 14Z-17Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY LASTING THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN



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