Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282144
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
344 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...BUT INCREASINGLY THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARM AND
BREEZY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON...AS OF 3PM
WE WERE JUST 3 DEGREES AWAY FROM OUR RECORD HIGH OF 88 AT EL PASO.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT DOWN TO THE WIRE.

THE WARM WEATHER IS COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD. AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...A PLUME OF HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ARE TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AND FAIRLY THICK HIGH
CLOUDS WHICH ALONG WITH A SLIGHT DROP TEMPS ALOFT...WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW. TOMORROWS RECORD IS
ALSO 88...BUT WE WILL BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES SHORT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS WILL FORCE A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT UP TO AROUND AN LRU-ELP LINE BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA...WITH 40S
DEWPOINTS SNEAKING INTO THE MESILLA VALLEY IN THE MORNING...BUT
QUICKLY MIXING OUT TO THE EP/HUDSPETH COUNTY LINE BY THE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH EACH RUN. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH ISOLATED...MAINLY TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY...BUT STRONG CAPPING WILL LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THERE.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN...IT APPEARS LIKE ITS
EFFECTS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL HAVE WASHED OUT BY THEN...AND WE WILL SEE
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. STILL...
LINGERING 40S DEWPOINTS EAST OF AN ALM-ELP LINE AND INCREASING PVA
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW FAVORS SOME WEAK/ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SCANT QPF... ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWLANDS. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
SUGGEST SOME GUSTY "VIRGA-BOMBS" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME GUSTS
GETTING ABOVE 40 MPH.

ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS WED-FRI. TYPICAL SPRING TIME WEATHER...BUT NO
MAJOR BLOCKBUSTER WIND EVENTS ARE ON THE HORIZON YET. ANOTHER
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRECIP
WITH ANOTHER WEAK SOUTHERN-STREAM DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH
SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z-30/00Z...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ARIZ WILL SHIFT EAST AND MOVE OVERHEAD
AND FLATTEN IN INTENSITY SUNDAY. PREVAILING SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FM THE WNW 5-10KTS EXCEPT 10G20 KTS 18-24Z. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT CI CLOUDS FM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT FEW-SCT250 BECOMING SCT-
BKN BY THE END OF THE FCST PD. OROGRAPHIC TURBC WILL REMAIN NIL-
LGT AND THERMAL TURBC WILL BE LGT AT TIMES 17Z-24Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND WITH MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORDS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH THIN CLOUDS BY
SUNDAY. MONDAY A FAST MOVING PACIFIC FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GIVING US A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
WITH DEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WITH LOW RH AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AT THAT TIME. AFTERNOONS LOOK
BREEZY BUT STILL NO BIG WIND EVENTS. MEAN RH VALUES WILL RANGE IN
THE 5% TO 15% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 55  87  60  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           50  84  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              48  85  53  82  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              46  84  53  81  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              45  63  43  59  41 /   0   0   0  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  83  54  79  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             47  76  51  73  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEMING                  43  85  53  84  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               44  84  50  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      56  87  61  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
DELL CITY               47  87  52  80  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            52  89  59  82  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              55  80  55  78  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
FABENS                  54  88  59  83  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            51  86  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  84  58  82  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           42  84  46  82  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
HATCH                   47  85  52  82  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS                47  84  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               51  84  56  82  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 48  73  45  68  46 /   0   0   0  10  20
MESCALERO               44  72  43  68  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                46  72  45  69  44 /   0   0   0  10  10
WINSTON                 43  76  47  71  43 /   0   0   0  10  10
HILLSBORO               50  81  53  77  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPACEPORT               46  84  49  81  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            41  75  45  71  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
HURLEY                  46  79  50  76  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
CLIFF                   42  82  49  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              35  80  41  78  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  79  52  76  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANIMAS                  46  84  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 43  85  50  83  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          43  84  50  81  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              44  81  51  78  47 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN/20-NOVLAN




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