Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 281139
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
439 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY WE WILL SEE OUR CLOUDS INCREASE AND WE WILL
SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY WE
WILL DRY OUT BUT WE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING WINDS WE WILL SEE TODAY. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION HAVE GONE LIGHT (THOUGH HERE AT THE OFFICE THEY ARE STILL
STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE EAST). AS WE START TO MIX OUT TODAY WE
WILL SEE THE WESTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. AND WITH THE
WESTERLY WINDS WE WILL SEE A NICE WARM UP. IT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
WARM AS I WAS THINKING YESTERDAY AS THE COOL AIR IS STILL IN
PLACE. I WAS THINKING TODAY WE WOULD SEE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE NEAR NORMAL WILL WORK TODAY. THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUR WARMING TREND SO THAT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OUR ZONAL
FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND FLING IT UP INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AS THE
FIRST BIT OF ENERGY APPROACHES THE AREA WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION START OUT WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A PRETTY WARM
SYSTEM SO SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8K. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
HAD BEEN TRYING TO GIVE US SOME WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...BUT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WIND DYNAMICS WILL BE MISSED TIMED AND
ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING. THE LEE SIDE TROUGH IS QUICKLY DISPLACED
SOUTH OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY OUR NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...JUST NOT AS STRONG AS WE HAD BEEN
THINKING. AFTER THE FIRST TROUGH GOES BY IT WILL USHER IN SOME
COOLER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL COOL OUR
TEMPERATURES SOME WHAT ON WEDNESDAY. THEN A THE SECOND TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE GONE IT WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE TO WORK WITH AND SHOULD PASS QUIETLY BY. THEN ON
THURSDAY THE BEFORE MENTIONED FRONT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
TRY AND PUSH IN. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS YEAR THE FRONT WILL
HAVE A STRUGGLE TO PUSH AGAINST THE WEST FLOW ALOFT. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE THIS FRONT WILL PUSH IN TO AT LEAST THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SO
EAST OF THERE WE CAN EXPECT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. BY FRIDAY WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER
SOME...BUT STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/12Z-01/12Z
WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL START OUT
FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST BUT BY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SWING
BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. WE WILL
OCCASIONALLY SEE HIGH CEILINGS OF SCT-BKN250.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL SEE OUR COOLER EAST WINDS REPLACED TODAY BY WINDS FROM THE
WEST. THE WEST WINDS WILL HELP JUMP OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES. WE WILL
AGAIN SEE GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT LIKE TODAY THEY
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. ON MONDAY WE WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION AND BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS. WE WILL BE COOLER...BUT DRIER FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MIN RH`S TODAY WILL RUN IN THE 20`S IN THE LOWLANDS AND
IN THE 30`S IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER
VALUES BEFORE THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
MIN RH`S IN THE TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE 20`S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  48  73  49  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           60  42  71  46  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              62  42  70  45  67 /   0   0   0   0  20
ALAMOGORDO              58  43  68  44  66 /   0   0   0   0  20
CLOUDCROFT              40  33  49  32  47 /  20   0   0  10  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   54  44  64  42  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
SILVER CITY             54  40  56  39  56 /  30  20  20  20  40
DEMING                  62  41  67  41  65 /   0   0   0   0  20
LORDSBURG               61  40  64  40  64 /   0   0   0  10  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      65  50  72  50  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
DELL CITY               58  38  71  41  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            65  45  75  48  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              57  46  65  46  65 /   0   0   0   0  20
FABENS                  68  45  75  47  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            66  45  71  47  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          62  46  68  47  67 /   0   0   0   0  20
JORNADA RANGE           61  39  67  39  66 /   0   0   0   0  20
HATCH                   63  42  68  43  67 /   0   0   0   0  20
COLUMBUS                61  45  67  46  66 /   0   0   0   0  20
OROGRANDE               61  46  70  47  69 /   0   0   0   0  20
MAYHILL                 49  37  57  36  56 /  20   0   0  10  20
MESCALERO               48  34  56  33  55 /  20   0   0  10  30
TIMBERON                49  37  56  37  56 /  20   0   0  10  30
WINSTON                 46  40  56  38  57 /  30  20  10  10  20
HILLSBORO               56  44  61  42  61 /  20  10  10   0  30
SPACEPORT               59  39  67  40  65 /   0   0   0   0  20
LAKE ROBERTS            51  38  55  36  54 /  30  30  20  20  50
HURLEY                  56  40  59  39  59 /  20  20  10  10  30
CLIFF                   60  40  62  38  61 /  20  30  20  10  50
MULE CREEK              54  34  58  33  57 /  20  30  30  20  50
FAYWOOD                 56  42  59  42  60 /  20  10  10   0  30
ANIMAS                  64  42  65  43  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
HACHITA                 64  41  67  42  67 /   0   0   0   0  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          66  42  67  43  67 /   0   0   0  10  20
CLOVERDALE              62  42  63  43  64 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15/15




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