Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 292004
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
204 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Easterly winds will continue to pump moist unstable air into New
Mexico and west Texas while an upper level trough approaches from
the west. This weather pattern will continue to generate
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the
Borderland through next Thursday with heavy rains and flash
flooding possible over a few areas. Thunderstorm activity will
diminish next weekend as drier air moves into the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Regional surface weather pattern will remain dominated by large
area of low pressure west of the divide and high pressure across
the plains. As a result low level flow will be mostly east to
southeast through the week with transport of abundant moisture
mainly from the Gulf of Mexico. Surface dewpoints will remain from
the mid 50s to lower 60s most locations into early Saturday
contributing to precipitable water rising to around a very high
1.3 to 1.6 inches most locations by Wednesday. Despite extensive
cloud cover and temperatures mostly below normal the abundant
moisture will also keep air mass somewhat unstable with afternoon
mucapes around 500 to 100 J/kg Tuesday increasing to around 800 to
1600 J/kg Wednesday. Thus potential for deep convection will
continue.

As usual the main question and uncertainty concerns updraft
initiation mechanisms. An upper level trough will move slowly into
western New Mexico this evening and pretty much dissipate by 12z
Tuesday. However another deeper trough with a closed low will be
moving into the west coast on Tuesday while upper high center
becomes located near Arkansas. Resultant circulation will include
a more southerly flow aloft which will add to moisture increases
mentioned above. In addition models indicate embedded
waves/vorticity maxes will move northward into the cwa enhancing
convective activity...especially Tuesday night and Wednesday.
vertical wind profile favors slow moving or back building cells
which combined with deep moisture indicates a risk of heavy
rainfalls and flooding. Hail and stronger wet downdrafts may also
occur with several storms mainly in areas of higher instability.

Models continue to diminish rain threat later periods by moving
rather deep upper trough into the Rockies which in turn induces a
drier westerly flow aloft across the region. Low level winds will
be south to southeast however so sufficient low level moisture
should be present for at least isolated storms most areas after
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 30/00Z-31/00Z.
P6SM FEW-SCT060-080 SCT-BKN150-200 thru pd with sct to nmrs mountain
and sct lowland 1-3SM TSRA BKN030-050 mainly thru 06Z and after 17Z.
Wind gusts to 40kts with thunderstorms...otherwise E to SE winds 5-
15kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low level moisture will gradually increase over our area during the
next three to four days. This moisture will help fuel scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A few of these storms may
produce some flooding of flood prone areas and low water crossings.
Best chances for increased activity in intensity and areal coverage
be around mid week. Min RH`s values will run from 30to40% lowlands
and 40 .to 50% Sacramento mountains Monday with all values
increasing about 10% overall on Tuesday.Surface winds will be from
the east to southeast at around 10 to 15 knots through the end of
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 68  81  66  82 /  30  50  40  60
Sierra Blanca           64  80  63  80 /  50  60  40  60
Las Cruces              64  79  63  81 /  30  40  40  60
Alamogordo              63  80  62  80 /  40  50  40  60
Cloudcroft              48  62  47  61 /  60  60  60  70
Truth or Consequences   62  78  62  78 /  30  30  40  50
Silver City             58  75  58  74 /  40  40  60  60
Deming                  64  80  63  81 /  30  30  50  60
Lordsburg               64  83  64  83 /  20  30  50  60
West El Paso Metro      68  81  67  82 /  30  50  40  60
Dell City               63  81  61  80 /  50  60  40  50
Fort Hancock            67  83  67  82 /  40  50  40  60
Loma Linda              62  76  60  76 /  40  50  40  60
Fabens                  66  82  65  82 /  40  50  40  60
Santa Teresa            66  80  65  82 /  30  50  40  60
White Sands HQ          65  78  64  79 /  30  50  40  60
Jornada Range           62  79  61  80 /  30  40  40  60
Hatch                   64  79  63  79 /  30  40  40  60
Columbus                65  81  64  82 /  30  30  50  60
Orogrande               65  79  64  80 /  40  50  40  60
Mayhill                 51  67  50  66 /  60  60  60  70
Mescalero               53  69  52  69 /  60  60  60  70
Timberon                51  67  49  67 /  60  60  60  70
Winston                 52  73  52  72 /  40  40  50  60
Hillsboro               58  77  58  76 /  40  40  50  60
Spaceport               62  77  61  78 /  30  40  40  60
Lake Roberts            53  76  53  75 /  40  40  60  60
Hurley                  58  77  58  75 /  30  40  60  60
Cliff                   59  83  59  81 /  40  40  50  60
Mule Creek              55  81  54  78 /  20  30  50  60
Faywood                 59  77  59  77 /  40  40  50  60
Animas                  62  83  62  83 /  20  30  40  60
Hachita                 62  81  62  82 /  30  30  50  60
Antelope Wells          62  80  62  79 /  20  30  40  60
Cloverdale              60  77  59  76 /  20  30  40  50

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash/20 Novlan



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