Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 272022
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
222 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Pleasant weather is expected across the region the next several
days. Skies will be mostly sunny with temperatures near normal
throughout the long holiday weekend. Moisture will eventually
return to the region later next week with chances for showers and
thunderstorms increasing as the week progresses.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
It has taken a while, but the winds will finally begin to back
off as an upper low ejects out over the central pains and ridging
aloft develops over New Mexico. With the ridging over us and a
developing trough along the California coast we will be returning
to southwest flow aloft for the weekend along with a corresponding
warm up. Temps should run near or slightly above seasonal norms
the next few days while the moisture remains east of the area
allowing for sunny to mostly sunny days through Memorial Day.
Surface gradients don`t appear to be excessively strong through
the period meaning that winds will be lighter than in recent days.
However afternoon breezes will intensify each afternoon as deeper
mixing occurs in association with the warmer temps.

As the upcoming week gets started the upper trough will begin to
migrate over our region. While cooler temps aloft will help to
destabilize the atmosphere a bit, moisture still looks to be very
limited. Cumulus buildups will be common over the higher terrain
and even some dry lightning could occur. However as a stronger
upper low drops into the plains states it will help to push a back
door front through by midweek. This will serve to bring in higher
dewpoints with easterly surface winds. The result will be an
increasing chance for shower and thunderstorm development across
the area Wednesday afternoon through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z-29/00Z.
P6SM SKC-FEW250 thru pd. West winds 10-15G20KTS thru 03Z and south
to southwest 10-15KTS after 16Z. Winds will be variable below 10KTS
between 03Z-16Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southwest flow will redevelop aloft as an upper low forms over
Southern California. This will allow temperatures to rebound back to
near normal starting Saturday and continuing through at least
Tuesday. Relative humidities during this time will continue to drop
into the single digits most locations with light winds Saturday but
increasing some for Sunday into Monday although remaining below
critical speeds. As the upper low approaches the middle part of the
week, there will be some moisture pushing into the area raising
humidity values and bringing a small chance for thunderstorms to the
region...mainly in the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 58  90  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           58  91  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              50  86  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              54  88  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              42  65  49  64 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   56  85  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             51  81  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  49  88  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               51  88  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      57  91  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               50  90  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            55  94  62  95 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              54  84  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  54  91  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            50  88  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          61  87  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           50  87  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   49  90  50  92 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                50  89  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               54  88  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 45  78  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               43  76  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                41  73  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 43  80  41  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               53  84  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               53  86  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            40  85  35  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  46  81  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   45  86  41  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              39  83  36  83 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 49  84  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  52  88  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 50  90  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          53  90  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              50  82  47  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27-Laney/26-Grzywacz



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