Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 020849
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
249 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NOTHING REALLY CHANGES TODAY FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE REGION SUNNY...HOT...AND DRY.
MUCH THE SAME IS EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP IN AND GIVE THE REGION IT`S FIRST SLIM SHOT AT
ISOLATED STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND PROVIDE
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN TO NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE KEEP THE STATUS QUO OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD. LAST NIGHT`S SOUNDING BROUGHT OUR PW
DOWN TO A HALF INCH...WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE SLIVER OF
MID-LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
BELOW TO THE POINT THAT EVEN CLOUDS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO
DEVELOP. THERE IS NO HOPE FOR STORMS WITH SUCH DRY AIR AND A HUGE
WARM INVERSION LAYER ALOFT CAPPING LIFT. ANOTHER DAY OF VERY WARM
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR RECORDS.

WEDNESDAY WILL MARK THE STAR OF THE REVERSAL IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FOCUS EAST AND
ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING IN GULF MOISTURE TO
THE EAST ZONES AND MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OUT OF N MEXICO TO THE WEST ZONES. AT THIS
TIME WE BELIEVE THE MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH THAT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL NOT SEE ANY PCPN/STORMS. HOWEVER THERE ARE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THE SACS FOR THE WED PM HOURS. THURSDAY WE CONTINUE
THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND GET ALL OF THE ZONES IN POSITION TO SEE
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. PW`S WILL GET BACK UP TO 1" OR ABOVE
AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT WILL ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER AND DEEPER CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF
COOLER TEMPS DUE TO THE LOSS OF HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE AND MORE
CLOUDS IN A MORE MOIST AIRMASS.

FRIDAY ONWARD THE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY AS SEVERAL SUBTLE MODEL
DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR HUGE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
OUTCOME. THE FIRST QUESTION IS "HOW FAR EAST...AND FOR HOW
LONG...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE RECEDE TO THE EAST"? THIS TRANSITION
WILL AIDE THE AREA IN GETTING A RETURN OF MOISTURE. IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TROPICAL STORM "DOLLY" WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE MEXICAN
COAST S OF BROWNSVILLE AND TRACK ACROSS N MEXICO TOWARD OUR
REGION. TO OUR SOUTH A SECOND TROPICAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BECOME
TROPICAL CYCLONE "NORBERT". THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N
TOWARD THE BAJA. THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD TEAM UP TO ADD COPIOUS
MOISTURE TO THE FETCH THAT WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO OUR
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER MODELS ARE WAFFLING ON THAT VS.
SHOVING THE MOISTURE TO OUR WEST AND CONCENTRATING THAT PLUME OVER
AZ. THE FORMER SCENARIO WOULD GIVE OUR REGION VERY GOOD CHANCES AT
A WET PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE NEXT TUESDAY...AND THE ECMWF
MODEL FAVORS THAT OUTCOME. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE LATER OUTCOME
WITH MOST OF THE PCPN OVER AZ KEEPING. THIS KEEPS MUCH OF OUR REGION
MORE DRY THAN WET. THUS THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IS QUITE WIDE
AND CONFIDENCE IS MEAGER AT BEST.

OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR A THU-TUE DURATION OF SCATTERED
RAIN/STORMS OVER W AND MOUNTAIN ZONES...ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT THE FORECAST TO CHANGE...MAYBE SIGNIFICANTLY...OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE FRI-TUE FORECAST PERIODS AS WE HUNT
FOR MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/12Z - 03/12Z...
VFR CONDS THRU PD. P6SM SKC-FEW120 THRU PD. WINDS W 5 TO 12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE TEENS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE SACS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WOULD BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REALLY MAKE A RETURN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE EAST AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY
STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHEN SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                100  73  98  72  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           96  70  95  70  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              98  67  97  68  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              97  66  96  70  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              77  50  74  51  70 /   0   0  20  10  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   97  66  94  67  92 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             93  61  92  61  87 /   0   0   0   0  20
DEMING                  99  63  97  67  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               97  63  96  66  95 /   0   0   0   0  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      99  72  98  71  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY              100  70  98  71  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            99  74  97  74  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              93  70  93  67  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  97  71  96  72  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            99  70  97  68  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  69  95  69  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           96  63  96  66  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   98  65  97  67  92 /   0   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS                96  67  95  68  92 /   0   0   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               97  69  96  71  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 85  56  83  57  78 /   0   0  10  10  20
MESCALERO               86  56  84  55  81 /   0   0  10  10  20
TIMBERON                86  54  84  57  80 /   0   0  10  10  20
WINSTON                 87  58  86  55  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
HILLSBORO               92  63  92  62  86 /   0   0   0   0  20
SPACEPORT               96  66  95  67  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            90  56  89  55  85 /   0   0   0   0  20
HURLEY                  94  61  94  62  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
CLIFF                   95  58  92  55  92 /   0   0   0   0  20
MULE CREEK              92  52  90  52  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
FAYWOOD                 92  62  92  62  86 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANIMAS                  95  67  95  67  93 /   0   0   0   0  20
HACHITA                 97  62  96  66  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          95  61  94  65  93 /   0   0   0   0  20
CLOVERDALE              93  63  93  63  91 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD




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