Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 210939
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
339 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY
AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOWS BACK INTO THE REGION AND A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GENERATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
AND SHOWERS. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...SMALL
STREAMS...ARROYOS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS IN POSSIBLE. A WEST
FLOW WILL PUSH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SEASONAL VALUES FOR THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SIERRA COUNTY
PRODUCING HALF INCH TO WINCH AND HALF RAIN MOUNTS IN AN HOURS
TIME. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AREA WIDE AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOWS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH. SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ENHANCED A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
ADD ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE ALREADY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

THIS WET AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA TO RECEIVE
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. SINCE THE GROUND IS STILL SATURATED FROM
THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS OF A FEW DAYS AGO...MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF RUNOFF WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ALONG
DRAINAGES...ARROYOS AND SMALL STREAMS. URBAN AREAS COULD SEE SOME
STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING
AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST ALLOWING A DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL PUSH MUCH OF THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE MOST ACTIVE
AREAS BEING OVER THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMALS FOR THE WEEK.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS A
LARGE MID LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD...IT WILL PULL UP MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF IT...RESULTING IN A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
WEEKEND. STRONG FORCING FROM THIS TROUGH MAY RESULT IN STRONGER
STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL A POSSIBILITY. SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS WILL RESOLVE THIS DEVELOPING EVENT IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z - 22/12Z...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LOWER VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR LEVELS NEAR STRONGER
STORMS. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
AND TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND EAST. TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH GRAZES
OUR AREA. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DROP TO AROUND 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY AS CLOUDS AND
T-STORMS INCREASE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH... WITH
RAINFALL KEEPING SOIL MOISTURE HIGH AS WELL. VENT RATES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FAIR CATEGORY TODAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 84  67  81  65  82 /  60  60  60  40  10
SIERRA BLANCA           79  62  76  61  77 /  60  60  70  40  10
LAS CRUCES              82  66  80  63  80 /  50  60  50  40  10
ALAMOGORDO              83  65  80  63  82 /  70  70  60  40  10
CLOUDCROFT              62  49  60  48  63 /  70  70  70  50  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  62  80  61  81 /  50  60  50  30  10
SILVER CITY             78  61  77  59  79 /  60  60  50  30  20
DEMING                  83  64  82  63  83 /  50  60  50  40  10
LORDSBURG               83  65  84  64  85 /  50  50  40  30  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      85  68  82  66  82 /  60  60  60  40  10
DELL CITY               83  64  80  63  79 /  70  70  70  40  10
FORT HANCOCK            85  68  82  66  83 /  70  70  70  40  10
LOMA LINDA              78  62  75  61  77 /  70  70  60  40  10
FABENS                  87  67  84  64  85 /  60  60  60  40  10
SANTA TERESA            84  66  81  65  81 /  60  60  60  40  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          83  65  79  64  80 /  60  60  60  40  10
JORNADA RANGE           84  63  82  61  82 /  50  60  50  40  10
HATCH                   81  64  80  62  80 /  50  60  50  40  10
COLUMBUS                84  66  84  64  81 /  50  60  50  40  10
OROGRANDE               82  66  79  64  80 /  70  70  60  40  10
MAYHILL                 67  54  68  53  70 /  70  70  70  50  30
MESCALERO               71  55  70  53  73 /  70  70  70  40  30
TIMBERON                69  54  68  53  69 /  60  70  80  50  20
WINSTON                 72  55  73  54  74 /  60  60  60  30  30
HILLSBORO               76  61  75  58  77 /  50  60  50  30  20
SPACEPORT               81  62  80  61  82 /  50  60  50  40  10
LAKE ROBERTS            78  57  77  56  78 /  60  60  60  30  20
HURLEY                  79  63  79  61  79 /  50  50  50  30  20
CLIFF                   82  60  83  58  84 /  50  50  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              81  53  81  52  81 /  50  50  50  30  20
FAYWOOD                 79  63  78  61  76 /  50  60  50  30  20
ANIMAS                  84  64  84  64  86 /  50  50  40  30  10
HACHITA                 84  63  83  62  83 /  50  60  40  40  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          84  61  82  60  85 /  50  50  40  40  10
CLOVERDALE              81  62  82  61  84 /  50  50  50  40  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NMZ401>403-
     407>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.