Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 250911
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
311 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist unstable air will continue to flow into southern New Mexico
and west Texas and this will bring more showers and thunderstorms
across the region today through Tuesday. A few storms will again
produce heavy rains...hail and string winds this afternoon and
tonight. Westerly winds will result in very warm mostly dry
weather across the Borderland Wednesday through next Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Overnight thunderstorm complex has moved south of the border with
storm motion showing well defined mesoscale convective vortex over
northern Mexico. For today once again the combination of large
thermal/heat trough west of the divide and equally large surface
high over the mid west and southern plains will induce east to
southeast low level with continued transport of abundant moisture.
Surface dewpoints will range from lower 50s west to lower 60s
east supporting high precipitable values around 1.1 to 1.4
inches. Air mass will remain rather unstable with afternoon
MUCAPE`s around 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Thus expect another round of
deep convection as surface heating...upslope flow and possible
short wave moving into the CWA from the north initiate updrafts
with subsequent outflow boundaries sustaining activity into the
night.

Like yesterday expect most of the storms will develop across
northern areas during the afternoon with a likely mesoscale
convective complex/system moving into central and southern regions
late in the afternoon and overnight. The abundant moisture and
instability will result in a few storms producing heavy rains and
possible flash flooding. In addition low level southeast winds
beneath northwesterly winds aloft will result in 0 to 6 km shear
values around 30 kt contributing to further updrafts enhancement
sufficient to cause larger hail. Finally DCAPE values above 1200
J/kg indicate potential for a few damaging downdrafts.

South to southeast winds will maintain inflow of moist air through
Tuesday but upper ridge will be expanding across New Mexico while
associated high pressure center shifts to the south into northern
Mexico. This will result in diminished thunderstorm coverage on
Tuesday. By Wednesday a zonal flow aloft will be established
across the southern Rockies with downslope flow and attendant
warming causing formation of surface trough through eastern New
Mexico. This pattern change will cause low and mid level westerly
flow over the CWA with advection of very warm drier air. Thus will
outlook above normal temperatures and little or no rainfall
Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

...AVIATION...Valid 25.12z-26/12z.
Scattered areas of MVFR or IFR ceilings and visibility in showers
and thunderstorms mainly from 20z to 08z. A few storms may produce
and hail and wind gusts to 50 kt. Otherwise SCT-BKN 050-100 with
surface winds speeds mostly from 10 and 20 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist unstable air will continue to flow into southern New Mexico
and west Texas and this will bring more showers and thunderstorms
across the region today through Tuesday. A few storms will again
produce heavy rains...hail and string winds this afternoon and
tonight. The widespread wetting rains should continue to reduce
the fire danger. Westerly winds will result in very warm mostly
dry weather across the Borderland Wednesday through next Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 94  71  91  71 /  20  60  20  20
Sierra Blanca           92  67  89  67 /  20  50  40  20
Las Cruces              92  67  89  67 /  20  60  20  30
Alamogordo              90  66  88  66 /  30  60  30  30
Cloudcroft              66  51  67  51 /  60  70  70  40
Truth or Consequences   92  66  92  68 /  40  50  40  30
Silver City             91  62  89  63 /  50  60  40  30
Deming                  93  67  91  66 /  20  60  20  20
Lordsburg               95  67  93  67 /  30  50  20  20
West El Paso Metro      92  70  89  71 /  20  70  20  20
Dell City               93  66  91  66 /  30  60  40  20
Fort Hancock            97  70  91  70 /  20  60  30  20
Loma Linda              86  66  86  68 /  20  60  30  20
Fabens                  94  70  90  70 /  20  60  20  20
Santa Teresa            93  68  89  69 /  20  60  20  20
White Sands HQ          91  70  88  70 /  30  70  20  30
Jornada Range           92  65  89  65 /  30  70  20  30
Hatch                   95  66  93  66 /  30  60  20  30
Columbus                95  69  92  69 /  20  60  20  20
Orogrande               92  68  89  68 /  30  60  20  30
Mayhill                 74  55  75  55 /  60  70  80  40
Mescalero               77  54  78  54 /  60  70  70  40
Timberon                75  55  75  55 /  60  70  60  40
Winston                 84  57  84  58 /  60  50  70  40
Hillsboro               87  62  89  62 /  50  60  50  30
Spaceport               94  63  93  63 /  30  60  30  30
Lake Roberts            89  53  86  54 /  60  70  60  30
Hurley                  88  61  88  62 /  30  60  40  20
Cliff                   98  61  95  61 /  40  60  40  30
Mule Creek              96  63  94  64 /  40  50  30  20
Faywood                 89  61  89  62 /  30  70  40  30
Animas                  97  68  94  68 /  30  50  20  30
Hachita                 96  67  94  67 /  30  50  10  30
Antelope Wells          95  67  94  68 /  30  50  20  40
Cloverdale              93  64  89  67 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash


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