Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 042041
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
241 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER NEW MEXICO AND THAT
WILL DECREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE OUR TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE LOWLANDS THIS WEEK WILL BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. BY
THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT IN DRY AIR
ALOFT. DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE LOW 60`S...BUT NOW THEY
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50`S OR EVEN IN THE 40`S IN A FEW SPOTS. THE
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WILL STRUGGLE SO I`M NOT
EXPECTING MUCH COVERAGE FOR THE LOWLANDS LATER. BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS NEW MEXICO
WHICH WILL AGAIN DECREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES EVEN FURTHER AND
INCREASE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW MOST
LOWLAND LOCATIONS TO HIT THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND PROBABLY FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE DRIFTED TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO REDEVELOP AND USHER IN MOISTURE SO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL "COOL" A BIT BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BRING THE UPPER RIDGE BACK INTO NEW MEXICO SO WE WILL LIKELY
AGAIN SEE A DOWNTURN IN OUR RAIN CHANCES AND AN UPTURN IN OUR
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 05/00Z-06/00Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD...GENLY VFR. ISOLD -TSRA BKN100CB TOPS 400...MAINLY
OVER MOUNTAINS AND DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM (SOUTH) OF THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS...FROM 00Z-04Z TONIGHT AND AGAIN AFT 18Z ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE IFR CIG...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS 35-45
KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...  HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER EAST TEXAS FOR THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL INHIBIT MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST...SO
ISOLATED MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BY SATURDAY THE HIGH
SHIFTS TO EAST TEXAS FOR THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
RETURN WITH SOME ADDED MOISTURE. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALL
ZONES SAT/SUN WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A BIT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 74 103  75 103 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           70  99  69 100 /  10   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              69 101  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              69 103  68 102 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              53  78  54  78 /  10  20  20  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   68 100  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             63  91  64  92 /   0  10  10  20
DEMING                  69 101  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               66 100  67  99 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      73 104  73 103 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               71 102  71 103 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            71 103  71 103 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              70  96  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  71 103  71 103 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            71 102  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          71 102  71 101 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           69 102  69 101 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   69 103  69 102 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                69 101  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               71 102  71 101 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 59  87  59  87 /  10  20  20  20
MESCALERO               57  87  56  87 /   0  20  20  20
TIMBERON                60  88  60  87 /  10  20  20  20
WINSTON                 59  89  60  89 /   0  20  20  20
HILLSBORO               66  97  67  98 /   0  10  10  20
SPACEPORT               69 101  70 101 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            57  91  58  90 /   0  10  10  20
HURLEY                  64  94  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   60  98  62  97 /   0   0   0  10
MULE CREEK              58  94  59  95 /   0   0   0  10
FAYWOOD                 65  94  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  66  99  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 67 100  67  99 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          65  96  66  95 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              64  92  64  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/HEFNER


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