Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 240952
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
352 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY HIGH MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE WARMING UP TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MOST ACTIVITY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR LATE MAY IN PLACE FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. DEEP AND VERY LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH UPPER WAVE ROTATING
AROUND IT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE A
LEE CYCLONE WAS PRESENT OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. RESULTANT
CIRCULATION WILL INCLUDE A DEEP WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS NEW MEXICO TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH TRANSPORT OF DRY AIR KEEPING SURFACE DEWPOINTS
MOSTLY BELOW 40 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW .5 INCH MOST AREAS
DURING THIS TIME. UPPER WAVE NOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PASS ACROSS
THE CWA TONIGHT AND PROVIDE BARELY SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT AND FAR
NORTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW AND PASSAGE OF SHORT
WAVE RIDGE WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF IT PUSHING MOISTURE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO
AROUND .5 TO AN 1 INCH EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE CAUSING AIR MASS TO
DESTABILIZE AGAIN. THUS A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN ZONES WITH
MOSTLY WARM DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING WARM DRY
WEATHER ALL LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY BEFORE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS
FROM THE EAST AND GENERATES MORE CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/12Z-25/12Z.
ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z...MAINLY OVER HIGH MOUNTAIN
AREAS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH A FEW AREAS OF
CEILINGS ABOVE 10,000 FEET AGL. SURFACE WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30
MPH BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE WARMING UP
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWEST HUMIDITY
WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS A
FEW AREAS WILL SEE CONDITIONS APPROACHING RED FLAG THIS AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH.
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST ACTIVITY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 83  59  85  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           85  54  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              81  50  82  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              81  53  82  57  85 /   0  10   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              59  40  60  45  64 /   0  20  10  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   79  51  81  56  84 /   0  10  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             72  46  73  48  77 /   0  20  10   0   0
DEMING                  81  49  82  51  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               80  51  81  51  86 /   0  10   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      82  58  85  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               82  53  84  56  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            84  56  87  58  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              77  53  78  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  82  55  85  57  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            83  55  83  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          81  56  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           81  49  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   82  50  83  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                81  54  81  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               81  55  81  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 68  46  69  50  71 /   0  20  10  10   0
MESCALERO               68  44  69  48  72 /   0  20  20  10   0
TIMBERON                68  45  68  49  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
WINSTON                 72  43  72  47  76 /   0  20  20  10   0
HILLSBORO               79  47  80  51  84 /   0  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               81  48  82  52  86 /   0  10   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            72  44  72  46  77 /   0  20  20  10   0
HURLEY                  75  46  75  47  80 /   0  10   0   0   0
CLIFF                   78  46  79  48  84 /   0  20  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              76  41  77  42  81 /   0  20  10   0   0
FAYWOOD                 76  48  76  50  80 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  81  51  82  51  86 /   0  10   0   0   0
HACHITA                 82  50  82  51  87 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          81  49  82  49  87 /   0  10   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              77  49  77  49  82 /   0  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH




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