Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 290957
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
357 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SWING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS MEANS MORE WIND FOR THE REGION
TODAY AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL KEEP DUST DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT
SOME. MOST OF THE REGION WILL STAY DRY...BUT A LITTLE MOISTURE IS
WORKING IN. THUS A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY A BACKDOOR FRONT AND
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL LIKELY REDUCE THOSE CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT WEEKEND MAY BECOME UNSETTLED AS YET ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM DROPS IN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
W.O.W?..."WINDY OR WINDIER?". THAT IS THE QUESTION FOR TODAY`S
FORECAST. YET ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC STORMS SYSTEM IS PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THIS MEANS MORE WINDS. TODAY WILL BE
COOLER AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A PAC FRONT THROUGH AND TURNS WINDS
WESTERLY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE DUST POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ELIMINATE
IT. DUST SHOULD STAY FAIRLY SOUTH OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ZONES. WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY EAST...SAME OR
LOWER WEST. THINKING A WIND ADVISORY IS NECESSARY FOR LOWLANDS
EAST OF THE BOOTHEEL FOR TODAY...NOON TO 9PM. LAST THING FOR
TODAY...IS THE ARRIVAL OF A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THUS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOSTLY THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.

SATURDAY OUR AREA IS BETWEEN STORMS. A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALLOWS FOR WARMING WITH MODERATE AFTN BREEZES. STILL A BIT OF SW
MTN MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO MAYBE A STRAY BUILDUP OVER THE GILA.
SUNDAY THE NEXT PAC STORM IS OVER NW AZ AND BEGINNING TO LIFT NE
AND OPEN UP. THIS MEANS IT BYPASSES OUR REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT. HOWEVER WE WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A BACKDOOR FRONT FROM
THE NE THANKS TO SOUTHWARD DIVING SFC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS PUTS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER PROLONGED LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME
GULF MOISTURE INGEST WITH THE DRYLINE EBBING WEST AND EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY FOR THE ZONES
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THUS WE BEGIN TO INTRODUCE POPS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. THIS PATTERN SUGGEST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN LOWLANDS EACH DAY.

BEYOND TUE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO FORM WEST AND MOVE OVER
THE REGION BY WED/THU. THIS FEATURES WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LIMIT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RESULTING IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE FOR WED
AND THU.

FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST A
SOUTHWEST MOISTURE TAP TO MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. SO IT LOOKS LIKE WEATHER
COULD BECOME UNSETTLED FOR THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z-30/12Z. VFR COND EXPECTED ALL TERMS THRU PD.
HOWEVER PATCHY LOCAL BLOWING COULD IMPACT DMN...ELP...LRU FOR
BRIEF PDS FROM 18Z-02Z. W WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BETWEEN 15Z-
18Z TO 20-25G45KTS WITH PATCHY AREAS OF 3-5SM BLDU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
STARTING TO DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TODAY WITH
MORE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...AND RH DROPPING RIGHT AROUND 14-18%
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OVER
HUDSPETH AND SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTIES. MAY ALSO SEE ISOLATED PM
MOUNTAIN STORMS AND SLIGHT RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING. AN UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE LOWLANDS BY WEDNESDAY
BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  54  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           74  49  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              70  47  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              72  47  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              48  34  54  36 /  10  20   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  44  75  49 /  10  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             63  40  71  42 /  10  10  10   0
DEMING                  72  44  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               71  43  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  53  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               75  47  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            77  51  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              69  49  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  76  50  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            73  50  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          70  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           70  44  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   72  45  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                74  44  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               71  50  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 58  39  63  39 /   0  20   0  10
MESCALERO               58  38  64  39 /  10  10   0  10
TIMBERON                57  39  63  40 /   0  20   0  10
WINSTON                 62  37  68  39 /  10  20  10   0
HILLSBORO               68  43  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               70  45  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            65  35  69  37 /  10  10  10   0
HURLEY                  65  41  73  42 /   0   0  10   0
CLIFF                   70  37  77  41 /  10  10  10   0
MULE CREEK              68  35  75  39 /  10  10  10   0
FAYWOOD                 67  42  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  73  45  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 72  44  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          74  45  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              71  44  77  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ403-407-410-411-413-417.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

14-BIRD



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