Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 040830
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
230 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE REGION WITH SCATTERED LOWLAND
AND NUMEROUS MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG
DRAINAGES AND ARROYOS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN CURRENT WET ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT IS ANCHORED OVER REGION.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INDICATING BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW MOVING... RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...ARROYOS
AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. PONDING OF WATER IN POORLY DRAINED LOW
LYING AREAS AND ROADS IS POSSIBLE. THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME
A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF CONCENTRATING THE
MOISTURE INTO MORE OF A NORTH SOUTH PLUME THAT WILL STRADDLE THE
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THIS WILL REDUCE THE OCCURRENCEOF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS BUT WILL ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO INCLUDING THE
GILA REGION AND BOOTHEEL. THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THOSE AREAS WHILE SOME DRYING OCCURS FURTHER EAST. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD HOLD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/12Z-05/12Z...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SCATTERED LOWLAND
AND NUMEROUS MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONDS GENERALLY P6SM SCT-BKN100 BKN150-200
AND AFT 18Z SCT LOWLAND AND NMRS MTN 1-3SM TSRA BKN030-040 WITH
GENRLY -SHRA BKN040-060 06Z- 18Z. WINDS GENERALLY E TO SE AOB
12KTS EXCEPT NEAR TSMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION WITH UPPER HIGH FINALLY SHIFTING FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION TO THE BORDERLAND THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER IT WITH DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VERY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES. MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE DRYING TREND GOING TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 94  74  95  74 /  30  40  30  50
SIERRA BLANCA           90  68  92  69 /  30  30  40  40
LAS CRUCES              91  70  92  70 /  30  40  40  40
ALAMOGORDO              90  69  92  70 /  40  40  50  40
CLOUDCROFT              69  54  70  55 /  60  50  60  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   90  69  91  70 /  40  40  40  40
SILVER CITY             82  63  81  64 /  50  50  60  40
DEMING                  91  69  92  70 /  40  50  40  30
LORDSBURG               91  68  90  68 /  40  50  50  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      94  74  95  75 /  30  40  40  50
DELL CITY               92  68  94  70 /  30  30  40  40
FORT HANCOCK            94  72  95  73 /  30  30  30  50
LOMA LINDA              88  68  89  69 /  40  40  40  50
FABENS                  94  71  95  72 /  30  40  30  50
SANTA TERESA            92  72  94  73 /  30  40  40  50
WHITE SANDS HQ          91  70  92  70 /  40  40  40  50
JORNADA RANGE           91  69  92  69 /  40  40  40  40
HATCH                   92  69  93  69 /  30  40  40  40
COLUMBUS                91  70  90  70 /  30  50  40  40
OROGRANDE               91  71  92  72 /  30  40  40  40
MAYHILL                 77  57  80  59 /  50  40  60  50
MESCALERO               79  57  81  58 /  60  50  50  40
TIMBERON                78  56  80  57 /  50  40  50  50
WINSTON                 82  61  82  62 /  50  50  60  40
HILLSBORO               89  65  89  66 /  40  40  50  40
SPACEPORT               91  69  92  69 /  30  40  40  40
LAKE ROBERTS            81  59  81  60 /  60  50  70  40
HURLEY                  84  64  85  65 /  50  50  50  40
CLIFF                   88  65  89  65 /  50  40  50  40
MULE CREEK              87  64  87  64 /  50  40  50  30
FAYWOOD                 86  65  86  66 /  50  50  50  40
ANIMAS                  91  68  89  67 /  40  50  50  40
HACHITA                 91  67  91  67 /  40  50  40  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          89  65  87  65 /  50  60  60  40
CLOVERDALE              85  64  83  65 /  50  50  60  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/04/04


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.