Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 211754
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1254 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

GOES-16 channels 8, 9 and 10 continue to indicate a robust
mid/upper trough moving into the Rockies early this morning while
KGLD WSR-88D shows a cold front beginning to impact northwest
Kansas. This mid/upper trough is progged to emerge over the
Central Plains states late in the day and into the overnight
hours. As it does, the cold front will become the focus for deep
moist convection. Cinh is progged to weaken sufficiently between
19-21Z with relatively strong convergence progged along the front.
The timing from yesterday continues to appear on track with
storms expected to develop by around or shortly after 2 pm when
the front stretches from near Salina to Hutchinson. The front will
impact locations along a line from near Harper to Wichita to
Cottonwood Falls by around 4 pm while continuing to surge eastward
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. Severe
storms are still anticipated given 0-1km MLCAPE of 1700+ J/KG and
0-6km bulk shear vectors around 50 knots. While a couple of
initial supercells may be possible, a relatively quick transition
to a linear mode still seems like the most likely scenario along
the front with damaging winds the primary concern. An unseasonably
moist airmass is in place across southeast Kansas with PWATs
progged to rise to around 1.65 inches which is around 225 percent
of normal. So, as the front slows down a bit over southeast
Kansas, efficient rainfall production could lead to some flooding
concerns through the evening and overnight hours.

Sun-Mon...storms are expected to be east of the area by 12Z Sun
with a cooler and drier airmass in their wake. Seasonable
temperatures are expected ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Another progressive shortwave trough will drive a cold front
south across the area late Mon but not before highs rise into the
lower 70s under shortwave ridging. Low level moisture will be
shunted south of the area so the front coming in late Monday is
expected to come through with dry weather conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Breezy northwest winds will prevail across the area on Tuesday in
the wake of a clipper-like system digging across the Upper
Mississippi Valley area. Winds will need to be increased as
confidence grows in the coming days. Northwest mid/upper flow will
prevail through the middle of the week before another shortwave
trough arrives late Thu. Some differences in amplitude remain
between the GFS and ECMWF but both models tend to agree with much
cooler air arriving in the wake of the system. As high pressure
settles across the area Thu night/Fri Morning conditions may
become favorable for the first widespread hard freeze across the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

A strong cold front will continue to progress across the rest of
eastern Kansas this afternoon and evening, with scattered to
numerous thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of the
front after 2 PM. Most probable area for development will be along
and just west of the KS Turnpike corridor. Activity should then
congeal into numerous clusters and/or a squall line and advance
into southeast Kansas this evening. Main threats with storms will
be large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain and frequent lightning.
Activity should exit ICT between 00-02z and exit CNU between
05-08z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  45  72  45 /  70  50   0   0
Hutchinson      73  42  72  44 /  50  20   0   0
Newton          71  43  71  45 /  60  50   0   0
ElDorado        72  45  71  45 /  90  90   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   74  46  71  45 /  90  90   0   0
Russell         69  38  72  45 /  20   0   0   0
Great Bend      69  38  72  45 /  20   0   0   0
Salina          73  42  72  45 /  40  10   0   0
McPherson       73  41  72  44 /  50  20   0   0
Coffeyville     77  51  71  43 /  30 100  10   0
Chanute         75  50  70  43 /  50 100  10   0
Iola            75  49  70  43 /  50 100  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    76  51  69  43 /  30 100  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...ADK



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