Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 160748
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
248 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
KS...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS SURGING BACK NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASED ASCENT ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT--WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY EAST OF A LINE FROM
LINCOLN-WICHITA-WINFIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO
WILL FAVOR DIME SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY. REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY--THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GREAT BEND-WICHITA-WINFIELD WEDNESDAY
EVENING--THURSDAY MORNING. MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...READINGS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
80S-90S WED-THU...AS WESTERN CONUS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC SETUP MAY ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA PROGRESS NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A DEEP
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. ADD THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT--SATURDAY
EVENING. TROPICAL CONNECTION AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AND POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEMPER SEVERE
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME. HOWEVER...NOT ANTICIPATING A PROLONGED
EVENT AS SYNOPTIC FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS OFTEN VERIFY THE BEST WITH SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS...SO DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A BIT.
COOLER FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HOWEVER WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG I-70...SOME EARLY
MORNING STRATUS OR FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IF SO...IT WOULD LIKELY
BE IN THE MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CATEGORY. OTHERWISE CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE VFR CATEGORY DURING TUESDAY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH EASTERLY COMPONENT WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  65  89  66 /  10  20  20  20
HUTCHINSON      76  64  88  65 /  10  20  20  30
NEWTON          75  63  85  64 /  10  30  20  30
ELDORADO        76  63  86  65 /  10  30  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  66  89  67 /  10  20  10  20
RUSSELL         76  62  85  64 /  10  20  20  30
GREAT BEND      76  63  88  64 /  10  10  20  30
SALINA          74  62  84  65 /  10  30  20  40
MCPHERSON       75  63  85  64 /  10  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     77  64  85  66 /  10  30  30  30
CHANUTE         75  61  82  64 /  10  40  30  40
IOLA            74  60  81  63 /  10  40  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    76  63  84  65 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



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