Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 290245
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED DAYTIME CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH SUNSET/LOSS
OF HEATING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE NERN GULF MOVING WWD WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH...WITH THE CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE AS
IS SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG LATE TNITE AT BPT AND MVFR CIG
BRIEFLY AFTER DAYBREAK AT LFT AND BPT. VCTS BY MID-AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE AGAIN.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D
SHOWS ISO SHRA...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS
SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE MID 90S ALONG
AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW UPPER 90S SPRINKLED ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPTS MATERIALIZED THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104.

FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN. FOR WED...SIMILIAR CONDITONS EXPECTED LIKE TODAY...MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH ISO AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT (EMPHASIS ON WEAK & COOL) TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 90S/POSSIBLY 100 FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE DEWPTS IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH 105-110 AGAIN.
ONCE THIS IS REACHED...THE BOUNDARY COUPLING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG THE N GULF...WILL LIKELY IGNITE SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. OUR
TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IF ANY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DML

MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  99  78  98 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  78  96  78  97 /  10  20  20  40
LFT  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  20  40
BPT  77  96  77  97 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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