Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 080913
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
313 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE WIND AND POTENTIAL RELATED HAZARDS.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.  LCH VWP IS
SHOWING NW WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE AROUND 25 KNOTS.  GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AND A VERY DEEP MIXING LAYER IS FORECASTED FOR
TODAY.  WINDS SHOULD BE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

FOR NOW...GRADIENT AND WIND FORECASTS MERIT A WIND ADVISORY AREAWIDE
TODAY. KEETCH BYRAM REMAIN LOW AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA. WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
TO COVER THIS SITUATION MAINLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK OVER EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPERATURES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
HAZARDS EXPECTED.

UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO AMPLIFY DURING THE WEEK WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70S FOR
MAXIMUMS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE THIS WEEK WITH ECMWF SHOWING MOVEMENT THROUGH THE CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FASTER GFS IS BRINGING BOUNDARY THROUGH CWA
NEARLY 24 HOURS SOONER.  MODEL BLENDS ARE LEANING TOWARD A SLOWER
MOVEMENT SO WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15
PERCENT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY FROM THE NW WITH GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED. NO CHANGES TO HAZARDS AS GALE WARNING WILL
CONTINUE FOR EASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS.  WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS GRADIENT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECASTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WEST TEXAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  30  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  59  34  57  39 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  58  35  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  60  34  60  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ455-
     472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ455-
     472-475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     GMZ455-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ450-452-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...04


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