Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 230357
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1057 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES FROM 00Z FORECAST. VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING. SCT SHRA/TSRA FORMED ALONG THE FROPA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN IT APPROACHED THE COAST...AND CONTINUES THIS EVENING...WITH
THE AREA OF MAIN CONCENTRATION REMAINING ALONG THE FROPA AS IT
MOVES S THIS EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FORECAST
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY FOR TIMING AND ALIGNMENT ALONG
THE FRONT. SCEC WILL CONTINUE AS N TO NE WINDS 15-20 KTS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

INLAND...NO PRECIP EXPECTED AS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR (DEWPTS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S) FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION.
INHERITED LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND SE TX/C LA TO LOWER 60S
LOOKS GOOD UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AND WHAT BETTER WAY TO WELCOME THE
AUTUMNAL EQUINOX AT 9:29 PM THIS EVENING.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO AROUND THE I-10 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS FILTERING IN. LOW
TEMPS TUE AND WED MORNINGS WILL BE 5 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES LESS
THAN THIS PAST MORNING`S LOWS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID
80S. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE FRONTAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
WHERE THIS LOW WILL TRACK AND HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE CWA. AT THIS TIME HIGHER RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WITH LOWER CHANCES TOWARD THE EAST TX LAKE
REGION. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND
AND COULD EASILY PUSH HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IF RAIN CHANCES
BECOME HIGHER WITH THE FRONTAL LOW FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.

MARINE...A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR TONIGHT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE GULF WATERS. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST FLOW WILL
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WINDS POSSIBLE INCREASING
SOMEWHAT AGAIN DURING THE COMING WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVES CLOSE TO AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  63  85  62  86 /  10   0   0   0
KBPT  64  85  63  87 /  10   0   0   0
KAEX  58  83  57  86 /  10   0   0   0
KLFT  61  85  62  87 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA OUT 20 NM.


&&

$$





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