Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 190144
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
744 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING AS MOST PRECIP REMAINS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE GULF, HOWEVER RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
FARTHER INLAND AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. OUTSIDE OF THIS MINOR
ADJUSTMENT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER LOWER TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH OF KGLS THEN INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST.
FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE PRE-WARM FRONTAL TYPE WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND SOME MAINLY LIGHT OVER-RIDING TYPE RAIN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND PICK UP
THE SURFACE LOW AND MOVE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ROUGHLY JUST
ALONG THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ON
FRIDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS A
RESULT TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS. ALSO...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AND BECOME MORE INTENSE...ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WARM MOIST AIR SITTING PATIENTLY OFF THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
MOIST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OFFSHORE IN THE WARMER AIR AND MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO VERMILION BAY AND SOUTHERN VERMILION AND LOWER ST
MARTIN PARISHES. NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...SCATTERED PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN INLAND. LESS THAN ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT INDEED
THE RAIN IS GOING TO COME. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY REACHED THE HIGH
POINTS ALREADY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPS
THE TEMPERATURES REIGNED IN.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...ALOFT WE HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WORKING OUT OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
AT THE MOMENT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER TEXAS FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WITH IT BRING A SERIES OF ENERGY PULSES MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF WATERS. THIS IS AN ACTIVE SYSTEM...WITH THAT SAID...THE
WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO STAY RIGHT NEAR THE COAST LINE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...JUST EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THE
MOMENT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STEADILY MOVING EAST ON
FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL JUST BEGIN TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED INLAND AND THE WARM SECTOR TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE AND
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW BUILDING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WHICH MOVES INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE WEEKEND LOOKS GREAT...HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY LINGER SOME AND COULD STILL SEE A SPRINKLE HERE AND THEREFORE MOSTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND IN THE DEEPER GULF WATERS
ON SUNDAY. IN ORDER TO CLEAR THINGS OUT...WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO RIDE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO TRANSITION INTO RETURNING FLOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH/FRONT MOVING IN
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...YOU ARE GOING TO NEED AN UMBRELLA VENTURING
OUT TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WE STAY
IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

MARINE...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF WATERS AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND BEGIN TO SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORING TURNING
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  60  46  58  44 /  80 100  30  10  10
KBPT  56  61  47  60  44 /  80 100  20  10  10
KAEX  50  50  43  54  41 /  60 100  50  10  10
KLFT  56  62  48  59  45 /  80 100  40  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$






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