Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 221600
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1100 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Vis sat imagery shows morning stratus continues to erode, and
should scatter out to a widespread cu field by or shortly after
issuance time, w/bases 4-6 kft agl. Meanwhile, return flow will be
on the increase in response to leeside troughing on the Front
Range. This will develop a 40-45kt LLJ overnight, keeping winds up
and bringing in IFR/LIFR cigs to most terminals. Cigs will improve
little by the end of the forecast period. Latest models are
pushing back timing of convection, which looks to develop after
18Z Sat.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong upper trough centered over ID this morning extends down across
CA to the Pacific.  This trough will slowly push east as it tries to
dislodge the upper ridge center over the Eastern US.  This will put
the region into SW flow aloft carrying disturbances across the area.

Should be a few degrees cooler today but still well above normal
with highs mainly in the 90s.  As cloudcover increases expect to see
cooler temps with highs in the 80s Saturday and Sunday.  Looking at
a long awaited cold front moving into the area Tuesday and may be
reinforced with another one Thursday.  Long range models are giving
highs in the 70s after these fronts move in.

Already have good low level moisture with dewpts in the 60s as of
early morning and the MAF 00z sounding had a PW of 1.3 inches.  So
when disturbances are added in it is not surprising that models are
developing lots of qpf... starting out west this afternoon and
continue through the weekend.  There is the potential for locally
heavy rain this weekend... especially over SE NM on Saturday and
Saturday night with precip spreading east by Sunday.  Have increased
pops Saturday night to likely across all of SE NM.  A Flash Flood
Watch may end up being necessary but after discussing with
neighboring offices will hold off for now.  Will highlight heavy
rain concerns in HWO.  As the upper trough remains to the west look
for decent to good rain chances to continue into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  87  69  84 /  10  20  30  30
Carlsbad                       66  81  64  84 /  50  60  70  40
Dryden                         73  92  73  88 /  10  10  40  30
Fort Stockton                  69  87  68  85 /  10  30  40  50
Guadalupe Pass                 64  77  61  78 /  50  60  60  30
Hobbs                          65  80  62  79 /  20  50  60  60
Marfa                          57  81  59  80 /  10  50  50  60
Midland Intl Airport           70  88  70  83 /  10  20  40  40
Odessa                         70  88  68  83 /  10  30  40  40
Wink                           69  87  70  86 /  10  40  50  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44



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