Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 272302
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms should decrease in coverage around sunset, or shortly
thereafter.  VFR conditions will prevail throughout the next 24
hours at all southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014/

Not many changes to the current forecast. WV imagery shows an
elongated upper ridge centered just north of West Texas/SE NM,
allowing for another day of widespread triple-digit temps across
the area. At the sfc, a weak front/boundary lies across the S.
Plains, w/return flow to the south. A dense cu field has developed
over the mtns, and upslope flow this afternoon/evening will focus
isolated chances of convection there.

Monday, thicknesses begin decreasing, and should drop temps area-
wide by about a category Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
Aforementioned front may make it into SE NM and the Western Low
Rolling Plains, and be the focus of isolated convection along a
zone of low lvl convergence as depicted by the 12Z NAM. Wednesday,
strong return flow resumes as a leeside sfc trough drifts south
into the area. Models show a spike in thicknesses across the area,
and afternoon temps may reach the century mark one more time for
this forecast.

Late Wednesday night/Thursday morning, models bring a stronger
cold front thru the region. Front may hang up during the day a
little, but models take it to the Rio Grande by 12Z Friday. Along
w/isolated-slight chances of rain w/the front, temps Thu afternoon
should top out right around normal, and below-normal Friday,
w/models forecasting H85 temps ranging near 20C NE to under 30C
SW. Long-range models are similar on temps, but much will also
depend on extent of cloud cover/rain. Temps begin coming back up
Saturday, but models hint at another front Saturday night, for
below-normal temps again Sunday.

During this time, models really moisten the column up, w/PWATs
increasing to 1.5-2" by Saturday. The GFS raises PWATs at KMAF to
around 1.9" Saturday...about 3 std devs above normal.  Thus, the
potential for heavy rainfall will be there over the weekend as
models bring disturbances thru the east side of the ridge. For
now, we`ll continue a low-POP shotgun approach, as this is too far
out to accurately hone in on triggers.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

99




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