Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 310741
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
241 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PoPs and temperatures will continue to be modulated by the
subtropical ridge and the mid level theta-e ridge entrained within
said ridge. Today, the subtropical ridge axis will be to the north
of the CWFA as will be the theta-e ridge, while dropping se from the
ne-n, nearing the far ern CWFA. Anecdotal observations indicate
that convection also tends to develop in the mid level theta-e
gradient and there may be a convective boundary INVOF nrn CWFA
late today. As such will opt to reflect isold PoPs n and far e
INVOF said features. The subtropical ridge amplifies to the nw Sat
PM with indications of a weak shrtwv trof within the nw flow
aloft. This will favor the mid level theta-e ridge axis farther s
into the n-ne CWFA and worthy of scattered PoPs, which are already
in the forecast. A similar set-up for Sunday, even though the
ridge flattens some. Mtn PoPs will continue to be suppressed thru
Sunday with only isold tstms possible. Outside of temps being
convectively cooled (clouds/precip/outflow) across the n-e it will
still be hot thru the weekend, mostly above normal temps will
persist. Perusal of GEFS ensemble 85h,7h temp data (+2 to +3
standard deviations) also supports above normal temps. On Mon/Tue
there will be a slight uptick in PoPs across SE NM/Upper Trans,
but thereafter there is a good chance that the subtropical ridge
will move east as a trof slowly deepens along the NW coast,
ensuring hot wx will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  99  75  97  75  /  10  10  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                    98  71  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                     101  76 100  76  /  10  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               99  73  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              87  66  91  70  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       95  69  95  70  /  10  10  20  10
MARFA TX                       89  62  90  65  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        99  73  97  74  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                      99  74  97  75  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                       102  74 100  75  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


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