Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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741
FXUS64 KMRX 051934
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
234 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER WINDS, GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH, HAVE
HELPED TO KEEP CLOUDS AWAY AND TEMPERATURES JUST A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20`S IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE
WE WARM UP AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40`S TO LOW 50`S TOMORROW.
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TOMORROW AS HIGHER
MOISTURE AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE
LONG TERM WILL BE THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER
LOW FORMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW. THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
IN THIS REGIME WILL PULL ARCTIC AIR INTO THE DEEP SOUTH LIMITING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE SOME MODIFICATION OF THE CHILLY AIR IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY THE ARCTIC AIR ON ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY AND THIS SHOULD BE LIFTED INTO A PATTERN OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE GREAT
VALLEY WITH PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DUE TO RELATIVELY STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT THROUGH THE THREE
DAY PERIOD. GENERALLY IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK HOWEVER...PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A COUPLE SNOW
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             28  51  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  27  48  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       27  50  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              22  45  26  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/TH



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