Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 010741
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
335 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE FEATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM. BUOYANCY SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM IN
THE WARM AND RATHER MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE SHEAR IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...IT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR
THE PRODUCTION OF SOME SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MAIN THREAT HERE WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF WIND DAMAGE. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE OZARKS INTO THE MID SOUTH LATER TONIGHT KEEPING
THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD ROCKING AND ROLLING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED POSSIBLY INTO DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. STAYED CLOSE TO SUGGESTED MOS MAX TEMPS TODAY WHICH
SHOULD BE TRUNCATED A BIT WITH DEEP MOISTURE BUILDING IN WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER MO
WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS KY TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BACK
AND STRENGTHEN...INCREASING EFFICIENCY OF GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH AND
TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH
RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY. UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL INDUCE MIDLEVEL
VORTICIES THAT WILL ENHANCE LIFT AT TIMES...THOUGH TIMING THESE
FEATURES AT THIS POINT IS DIFFICULT. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BIGGER
CONCERN WILL BE FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING CELLS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED...BUT SINCE WE ARE STILL MORE THAN 24 HOURS OUT
FROM THE TIME OF EXPECTED ENHANCED RAINFALL...WILL HOLD OFF ON ONE
FOR NOW.

PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT
ACCORDING TO THE NAM...THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE PLAINS MAY SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP AND UPSTREAM
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS SHOWS
CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH HOWEVER...SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING
EVERYWHERE. THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FINALLY
BRING A LITTLE DRYING BY SUNDAY...LOWERING POPS INTO THE CHANCE
RANGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK VERY DIFFERENT BEYOND THAT...WITH GEFS
MEMBERS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH QPF. WILL BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  70  82  71 /  70  60  80  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  67  80  68 /  60  70  80  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       81  68  80  70 /  60  70  80  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  66  77  66 /  60  60  80  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$


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