Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 231547 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
845 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE OVER IDAHO/MONTANA WILL CLIP OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES TODAY AND MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND OTHER THAN SOME MINOR
CHANGES THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 133 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BROUGHT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS...SOME OF THEM STRONG. THIS SYSTEM IS NOW EXITING THE
AREA TO THE EAST AND THE CONVECTION HAS TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO JUSTIFY FORECASTING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TODAY OVER THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND WALLOWA COUNTY. AM NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MORE THAN GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND THEN
NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF THE MOST RECENT
UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AND THERE IS EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SOME MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL LINGER ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER MAINLY WALLOWA COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY AND
SUNDAY AND THEN THEY WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY...WITH READINGS
IN THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE MID 80S ON MONDAY IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MOSTLY 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. 88

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING MONDAY. OTHERWISE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. BY FRIDAY...A
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE PACIFIC NW
COAST AND MOVE INLAND SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. ONE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS THAT THE MOISTURE FROM WHAT WILL
BECOME HURRICANE MARIE GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE TROUGH AND PROVIDES
COPIOUS RAINFALL FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED
THINGS CONSERVATIVELY AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR SATURDAY. 78

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. EXPECT JUST A FEW CUMULUS AROUND TODAY AT 6-7 THOUSAND FEET
AND SOME CIRRUS ABOVE. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE MOSTLY NORTH AT 5-15
KT. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  78  57  80  57 /  10  10  20  20
ALW  79  62  82  61 /  10  10  20  20
PSC  82  61  84  59 /  10  10  20  20
YKM  80  58  81  56 /   0  10  30  30
HRI  82  58  84  57 /  10  10  20  20
ELN  79  56  78  55 /  10  10  30  30
RDM  74  47  78  46 /   0   0  20  20
LGD  72  50  74  49 /  20  10  40  40
GCD  72  51  76  50 /  10  10  20  20
DLS  83  62  83  61 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/








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