Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 162208
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
555 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front front will push through the area Thursday into
Friday and bring unsettled conditions. Generally drier
afterwards until Tuesday. Another cold front by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

As of 555 PM Wednesday...

Updated the chance of precipitation and sky grids for this evening
to better capture satellite and radar trends. Also lowered winds
overnight in the mountain valleys.


As of 200 PM Wednesday...

We will be well within the warm sector of system tracking into
the Great Lakes for most of the day tomorrow. Cold front starts
pushing into the region late tomorrow afternoon with current
consensus of guidance having the front near the Ohio Valley
around 0Z Friday. Could see a few scattered showers out ahead of
the front during the day tomorrow with a weak prefrontal trough
pushing through. Otherwise the heaviest rain will not arrive
until after 0Z Friday.

PWATs will be in the 2" range and any showers and storms will
likely contain locally heavy rainfall, but any flash flood
concerns are very low at this time. The best dynamics will
pass just to our north of our CWA, but our NW`rn West Virginia
Counties and Eastern Ohio Counties will be on the fringe of best
lift. Have decided to leave the HWO as is for now with low
probability of Flash Flooding in those areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Wednesday...

Ahead of an approaching cold front, moisture will increase to
provide some isolated showers or storms. Models show the cold
front will cross some time around 03Z Friday. Some storms may
contain heavy showers as pwats will be around 2.2 inches.
Although the probability for severe weather is marginal, there
will be plenty of deep layered shear of about 40 knots, strong
boundary layer convergence and sfc CAPE values exceeding 1600
J/Kg. With this moisture content any slow moving storm of
training over the same areas could present a risk for water
problems and isolated strong to severe storms.

High pressure builds for the weekend to provide mostly clear
skies and weak flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 PM Wednesday...

High pressure remains over the region through Sunday. Moisture
will be in the increase Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next
approaching cold front. The cold front crosses some time
later Wednesday to Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 555 PM Wednesday...

Some VFR clouds are possible overnight as a boundary pushes
northward across the area. Believe that light winds by morning will
prevent fog in the Ohio River counties, while decoupled mountain
valleys should form some fog. The density of the fog in the
mountains may be effected by some clouds.

A cumulus deck will form on Thursday. With increased moisture over
the area Thursday, scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms can
be expected.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except medium confidence overnight with
fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog intensity and coverage could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and
thunderstorms into the weekend. Dense river valley fog also possible
each morning depending on clouds.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...RPY/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MPK


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