Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 230103
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
903 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS INTO THURSDAY.
SECONDARY WAVE THURSDAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATER ON THURSDAY WITH A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL. WET WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEEKS WITH POPS...AS PERSISTANT SHOWERS OVER THE
RIDGETOPS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO WIND
DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.  OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA AS EXPECTED. DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE EAST CREATING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...CREATING THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL LOOKING LIKE
ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP SHOULD STAY OVER MOUNTAINS
WITH OVERALL WEAK FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE.

EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT ONLY EXPECTED IN DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. INCREASED BL
FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH...SHOULD HELP TO KEEP MUCH
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY...AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM
SIDE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES.

SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES
18-21Z...AND END UP TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. STILL NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
EVENT. GOOD CAPE/INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NO
REAL STRONG DYNAMICS...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY 20-25 KTS.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL GET SEVERE HAIL OR DMG WINDS WITH ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS. WILL MAINTAIN THIS IN THE HWO. SPC HAS AREA IN A
SEE TEXT FOR SEVERE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING EAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING DRIER BUT WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW.
THEREFORE...LIKELY POPS STILL EXPECTED IN THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...QUICKLY IMPROVING BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A
COOL AND MUGGY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REACH THEIR
DEWPOINTS...PERHAPS PRODUCING AREAS OF FOG UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

DECREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY 12-15Z THURSDAY WITH CHANCES
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ALL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY MID
DAY THURSDAY. MODELS AGREE IN A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SHORTLY BEHIND
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...SO HOLD ON INTO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MOST OF THE LOWLAND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY WITH MAX
TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL ON SKY
COVER...CODED UP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
THE LOWLANDS BUT SOME INDICATION THAT A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD
MAY REDEVELOP UNDERNEATH AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE WEATHER ELEMENTS WITH A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW TURNS WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW AT H5 WEAKENS SOME 5H...A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED BY
MODELS TO SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
FEATURE COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY...AS CUT-
OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLAYING OUT THIS SCENARIO LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR A GENERAL UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY EARLY
MONDAY.

WEAK AND FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IN DEEP
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 06-09Z...WITH ANY FOG
PROJECTED TO BURN OFF 12-13Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER 16Z.
EXPECT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD VARY TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 07/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
SECONDLY...IFR POSSIBLE LATER WITH POST FRONTAL CEILINGS ESPECIALLY
OVER MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE
WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...JS/SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS

EQUIPMENT...JS







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