Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 310244
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1044 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
ALL THUNDER HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE I64 CORRIDOR
SOUTHWARD INTO THE COALFIELDS. IN FACT...SEEING SOME FURTHER
REGENERATION ALONG A VERY DIFFUSE SFC COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WHICH
EXTENDS NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN OH INTO INDIANA. NEW CELLS GOING
UP ACROSS NW AND CENTRAL OHIO...JUST WEST OF CMH AT THIS
TIME...APPARENTLY OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX. STILL
EXPECTING PRECIP TO GRADUALLY END BUT HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND NORTHWEST
ZONES THROUGH 06Z. ACTIVITY WEST OF CMH WILL BRUSH THE NW ZONES
SHOULD IT HOLD TOGETHER...THOUGH THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE RUNNING
INTO FAR LESS SFC INSTABILITY THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING
REALIZED FURTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO. ALSO ADJUSTED
CORRESPONDING SKY COVER. STILL EXPECT A GENERAL CLEARING OUT LATE
IN THE OVERNIGHT AND NEAR-DAWN HOURS...SAVE ANY VERY LOW STRATUS
WHICH MAY FORM IN THE POST-RAIN ENVIRONMENT.

730 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK...HAVE TIGHTENED UP THE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. CURRENT BAND OF PRECIP RUNNING ROUGHLY
FROM CKB TO CRW TO HTS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAND IS
CONTINUING EASTWARD...WITH THE SOUTHERN PART TRAINING JUST A BIT
ALONG A CONVERGENT AREA FROM CRW W/NW-WARD TOWARDS THE CINCINNATI
AREA. MEANWHILE...S/W VORT MAX CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NW ZONES.
MAY NEED TO FINE TUNE POPS JUST A BIT WITH THE NEXT UPDATE BUT
STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH VORT MAX CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AND THE CONVERGENT
AREA FURTHER SOUTH PROGGED TO WEAKEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THERE...WILL
MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NAM12
HAS SUPPORT FROM NEAR TERM MODELS AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ON THIS
IDEA SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN A NARROW BAND MOVING
ACROSS.

THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN WITH LESS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LATER TONIGHT AND THU SAVE FOR THE POST-RAIN EFFECTS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. IT AND THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS THAT WILL ENSUE BEHIND
THE AXIS OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM
ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE NEARING IF NOT ENTERING FOG SEASON. A NICE
DAY IS ON TAP FOR THU ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO SW
VA AS THU DRAWS TO A CLOSE THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED CLOSE TO LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON LOWS
TONIGHT AND STRAIGHT UP GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THU...AS H85 VALUES
CLIMBING UP TO 14C SUPPORT AT LEAST LOWER 80S LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH BACK UP INTO THE 60S AREA
WIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AIDING IN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...INDICATING A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK WITH THE DISTURBANCE...AND THUS HIGHER POPS ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND KEEP
HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY DURING AFTERNOON/HEATING HOURS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NEAR
CKB SOUTHWESTWARD TO CRW...THEN WEST TO NEAR HTS. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR/IFR VIS...BUT THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.

CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO
FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIT THE FOG POTENTIAL MUCH HARDER AT THE
LOWLAND TERMINALS WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING RAIN...AND AS A RESULT
ARE ALREADY AT ABOUT A 2-4 DEW POINT DEPRESSION.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THU MORNING...IT MAY BRIEFLY LIFT INTO A
LOW STRATUS DECK...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER FAIRLY QUICKLY
WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THU MORNING MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  THU 07/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/50
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...50








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