Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 251523
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1123 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS FIRST THING THIS MORNING.  A MAINLY DRY COLD
FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS FIRST THING THIS MORNING...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST.  THE FRONT IS DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL
S/W TROUGH THAT DIGS ESEWD THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUN.  THIS LEAVES THE FCST AREA ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE JET.

WITH LITTLE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED.  CLOUDS INCREASE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ONLY 20 PERCENT EVEN THERE.

THE FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED OUT OF THE WNW TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
CROSSES...WITH UP TO 50 KTS AT H85.  THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME A BIT GUSTY LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH PEAK GUSTS POSSIBLY OVER 40 KTS OVER THE VERY
HIGHEST RIDGETOPS.

BLENDED IN THE MET AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY...WHICH
ARE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED MOS BLEND AND PREVIOUS.  KEPT LOWS
TONIGHT WHICH ARE ALSO CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.  DID SLOW
THE FALL OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT GOES BY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATER PART OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
DRY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH AN UPSWING IN DAYTIME
HIGHS...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTER WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY.

MAINLY STUCK WITH INHERITED TEMPERATURE VALUES WHICH WERE LEANING
TOWARD THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE.
THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE
DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING
THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME
ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID
NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS FIRST THING MORNING.  THE FOG BURNS OFF BY
14Z...YIELDING A VFR DAY TODAY.  A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W
MAY BRING SPRINKLES...EVEN A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...TO THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE DAY
TODAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR TONIGHT.  NEAR AND W OF THE OHIO
RIVER...THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AS THE BASES LOWER...SO MVFR CIGS
MAY NEVER BE REALIZED.

LIGHT S TO SW SFC FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT W TO SW
TODAY...AND THEN BECOME A BIT GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES.  SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO NW BEHIND
THE FRONT.  SO...EVEN WHERE AND WHEN IT CLEARS...THERE OUGHT TO BE
ENOUGH WIND AND DRY ADVECTION TO PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN LITTLE OR NO RAIN.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL
BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG NW BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG BURNING OFF THIS MORNING MAY VARY
BY AN HOUR OR SO.  WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD VARY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES TONIGHT.  TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR
STRATOCU TONIGHT MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM








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