Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 300800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
400 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD FRONT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SWIFT MOVING COLD FRONT EXITS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING
IN A CLEAN SWEEPING FASHION WITHOUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SHOULD SEE ONLY SOME FLAT
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL MIX SOME DRIER AIR BACK TO
THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT THE DRY AIR WILL NOT EXHIBIT THE LOW
DEWPOINTS SEEN BEFORE THE CURRENT FRONT ARRIVED.

AVOIDED THE MET GUIDANCE FOR THIS ISSUANCE AS THE ERROR POINTS WERE
TOO HIGH FOR THE PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS. INSTEAD...OPTED FOR THE BIAS
CORRECTED MAV...BUT MODIFIED HTS AND CRW WHICH LOOKED A LITTLE TOO
WARM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAST CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL RAPIDLY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT TOO MUCH FANFARE IN THE WEATHER AS MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. THE TRACK OF THE LOW ITSELF BY ALL THE MODELS WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS AND THUS THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE JUST NORTH OF
OUR AREA. WILL GENERALLY CONFINE CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. IN ANY CASE...ANY QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CHANGEABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST FEATURE...QUITE WARM TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.
THIS CHANGE LEADS TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE
MEAN SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...THE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE TAPPED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
FEEDS INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE YET TO BE
ESTABLISHED WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING ALONG THE
FRONT...THE RESULT IN GENERAL WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT WILL FINALLY GET A PUSH BY SATURDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. QUITE WARM THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COOLER FRIDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED MID
TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM
BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEEING SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS. OTHERWISE...ONLY
EXPECTING BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS QUICK LOW LEVEL DRYING
IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. BEYOND...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING MIXING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD
BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 03/30/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26








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