Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 262002
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
402 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is crossing the area providing showers and
thunderstorms. A large upper level low drops into the area
Wednesday and Wednesday night, and then swirls about the area
Thursday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 PM Monday...

A cold front is currently moving through the area though most
thunderstorms have already occurred in the pre-frontal band which
is nearing our eastern cwa boundary. Expect a gradual decrease in
shower activity tonight as front pushes through with an associated
temperature and dew point drop.

Clearing skies, light winds, and residual moisture should make
conditions ripe for a night of dense fog which should last into
the late morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Monday...

Some seasonable Fall weather is finally on tap for the region.
A Broad upper low/trough will dig south across the
region and remain nearly stationary overhead. We will be mostly
clear Tuesday night and will have a cool start to the day on
Wednesday...as lows drop into the 40s just about everywhere.

The cool weather will remain through the end of the week as H500
anomaly of 2 to 3 standard deviations below normal expected with upper
low. As the upper low pushes in we can also expect an increase in
shower activity with cooling temps aloft and continued height
falls on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 320 PM Monday...

Operational and ensemble guidance is in pretty good agreement with
large upper level low remaining overhead well into the weekend.
With the cool temperatures aloft...any daytime heating we receive
will quickly yield showers and possible isolated thunderstorms.
The good news is that this should bring some much needed rainfall
to the region and amounts will remain light enough so we are not
expecting any hydro issues. The upper low meanders northward
Sunday into Monday with ridging moving in behind it. This will
bring warm air back into the region with upper 70s to near 80
degrees for the start of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 PM Monday...

Cold front moving through bringing isolated MVFR/IFR conditions
otherwise VFR. Winds lull tonight setting up a favorable
environment for LIFR fog, so will be trending forecast that way.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of stratus and fog behind
the front tonight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    M    L    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    L    L    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    M    L    L    M    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    M    M    H    M    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Morning valley fog possible Tuesday through Friday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MPK
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...JW


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