Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 170559
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1259 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure overnight. Weak system brings the chance for
light rain Sunday afternoon and evening. Cold fronts cross
Tuesday and again late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1255 AM Sunday...

Forecast on track. Dampening upper level system bringing the
chance for light rain Sunday will be streaking across very
quickly, but the rain will have trouble reaching the ground at
first, on account of the very dry low level air.

As of 930 PM Saturday...

Setting up to be a difficult forecast for the overnight lows
tonight. Have seen some areas decouple already and drop into the
20s, while other sites, especially on hills, are still in the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

As of 1220 PM Saturday...

A high pressure system will provide dry weather and light winds
tonight. However, some cirrus in advance of the next system will
be moving into the region. Think that enough good radiation
conditions will exist to go on the cooler side of MOS guidance
lows.

Flattening wave aloft moves over the area Sunday afternoon and
evening. While some showers are expected, most of the moisture
will be used trying to wet the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Therefore, precipitation amounts will remain on the lighter
side.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Saturday...

Dampening s/w trof quickly exits to the east Sunday evening.
However, an abundance of low level moisture will linger along
with some weak isentropic lift in WAA. This was handled with
light rain and drizzle in the wx grids. There is some concern
for perhaps some freezing drizzle or light freezing rain in the
higher elevations, however confidence is not particularly high
at this point for any mention in the HWO. All of this will try
to linger for the first half of Monday along and north of the
I64 corridor as WAA strengthens to our southwest. This may setup
a significant temp gradient across the area with low
stratus/drizzle across the north and some sunshine across
extreme southern counties. I have undercut guidance for highs
Monday quite a bit across the north as a result. The WAA
eventually wins out by Monday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 255 PM Saturday...

A southern system will scoot by mainly to the south Wednesday
and Thursday, though enough of a spread for some low pops across
the mountains. Attention then turns to the weekend where there
remains considerable spread on the synoptic pattern evolution
across the eastern CONUS, as a battle looms between building
warmth across the southern states and advancing cold air from
Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1255 AM Sunday...

A weakening upper level wave will streak quickly across the area
Sunday, bringing some light rain. However, the low levels are so
dry, and the system will be moving so fast, that much of the
rain will not reach the ground at first, and the rain does does
is not likely to cause aviation restrictions.

The system pulls east of the area Sunday night, ending the
chance for rain, except in and near the mountains, where there
may be MVFR stratocu. Otherwise, with so little rainfall
expected, the chance for low cloud and fog forming Sunday night
is low.

Surface flow will be light south to southwest, beneath mainly
light southwest flow aloft.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Formation of MVFR stratocu Sunday night
may vary. Fog may start to form late Sunday night, especially
if it rains more than expected.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 12/17/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR in light rain and stratus at times overnight Sunday night
through Monday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM


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