Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 091649
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1149 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND UNSETTLED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER A LARGE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADDED WIRT AND RITCHIE TO THE EXISTING WARNING SINCE THOSE
COUNTIES HAVE LOWER WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA COMPARED TO
COUNTIES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

DEEPEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL LIKELY OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS...AND WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
FOR SEVERAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...RATHER THAN ENDING AT 7 AM.

TOTALS OVER 36 TO 48 HOURS COULD NEAR A FOOT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SECONDARY MAX IN SNOW FIGURED MOSTLY ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
IN WEST VIRGINIA...AND THEN ROUTE 50 AND NORTH IN SOUTHEAST
OHIO...MOSTLY 5 TO 9 INCH RANGE SINCE LAST NIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWS FROM THE PREDAWN HAVE LIFTED NORTH INTO PBZ
AREA...BUT ANOTHER 500 VORT MAX IN SOUTHERN OHIO SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL WV LATE TODAY...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SEEN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS.

OF COURSE...THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM...LIKE OUR JANUARY
EPISODE WAS. INSTEAD...AS WE HAVE BEEN STRESSING...THIS IS
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.
OF COURSE...THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM...LIKE OUR JANUARY
EPISODE. BUT RATHER ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN
MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

CODED FROM ONE TO 2.4 INCHES OF SNOW RANGING FROM SOUTHEAST
OH...EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FCST DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD DUE
TO THE VARIABILITY OF CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
ABOUT.

A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVERTOOK THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLED IN OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
SNOW SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS...MOST FREQUENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV ALTHOUGH...BECAUSE THIS
IS AN UPSLOPE PATTERN...FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT TIMES
CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE WV MOUNTAINS. THIS LEAVES ERN KY AND SRN
WV WITH VFR VSBY MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR BAND
CAN BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR. EVEN THERE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE
PERSISTENT...PERHAPS LIFTING TO MVFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST.

SFC FLOW WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE W...AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE W TODAY AND THEN
MODERATE W TO NW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>008-011-013>016-018-020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ037>040-046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ009-010-017-019.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ009-
     010-017-019.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ083-
     086-087.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-084-085.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.