Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 280727
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
327 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings a stellar day today, before yielding to a
southwest flow of warmer and more humid air Thursday through
Saturday. Cold front crosses Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Wednesday...

High pressure building over the area early this morning, with
its clear sky and light wind, was allowing temperatures to fall
to near record levels:

LocationForecast low this morning   Record      Year
                          Current as of 3 am
CRW Charleston         51       53           50         1988
HTS Huntington         51       54           47         1915
PKB Parkerburg         50       51           48         1988
EKN Elkins             43       46           39         1988
BKW Beckley            49       50           39         1955
CKB Clarksburg         49       50           46         1927

The high will bring about a stellar day today, with a warmer
afternoon. South to southwest flow tonight will bring in
increasing moisture, resulting in patchy cloud. The clouds,
along with the gradient flow, and warmer air, will lead to a
warmer night, especially on the hill and ridgetops.

Blended in the MET and MAV for highs today and lows tonight,
still a little below both beneath high pressure today. For lows
tonight, lowered the valleys a bit and raised the hill and
ridgetop a bit, increasing the ridge / valley split that the
models indicated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

Broad high pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast, will
extend west into WV Thursday night. This will continue to bring
mostly clear skies and warm temperatures through Friday.
Meanwhile, a cold front will slowly approach from the northwest
stalling to our north Saturday. Its vicinity could enhance the
formation of showers or storms during the afternoon hours.
Models show a series of upper level shortwaves that should keep
the warm sector convectively active through the weekend.
Overall, dry Thursday and Thursday night with PoPs increasing to
likely by Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

By Sunday, with the weakened stationary front just north of the
area, chances for pcpn diminish to bring dry conditions Sunday and
Sunday night. Additional upper waves will keep unsettled
weather through the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 AM Wednesday...

High pressure brings VFR except for early morning fog. All
guidance suggests only CRW and EKN go LIFR, and some guidance
does not even bring CRW to IFR.

Fog is not likely to form Wednesday night, as the high moves
east, giving way to southwest flow increasing to 25 to 30 kts
aloft. The calm surface air under high pressure overnight will
give way to light south to southwest flow by Wednesday
afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, but medium overnight for fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR at EKN may begin later than the 07Z
time coded in the TAF. IFR may not form at all at CRW, although
there will be dense fog in the valley along the Elk River there.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 06/28/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM



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