Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 051843
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



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