Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 272357
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
657 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE INTO SATURDAY. WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD
FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS WERE ABOUT MINUS 18C TO MINUS 21C WERE HERE
TODAY. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD BE DRYING UP THIS
EVENING. YET...WITH THE 850 THERMAL TROF STILL LINGERING THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z...BEFORE THOSE TEMPERATURES CREEP HIGHER....A FEW OF THOSE
CLOUD PATCHES MAY STICK INTO THE NIGHT AROUND IN THE WEAK FLOW.

WENT A BIT COLDER IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY IN INTERIOR SE OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  HOWEVER...HAVE MID DECK CLOUDS RETURNING
BEFORE DAWN IN THE SOUTH TO AFFECT THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE NIGHT.

WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PCT SATURDAY...FIGURING ANY PCPN WILL BE
ALOFT.  AS MID DECK MOVES NE IN THE MORNING...BREAK COULD DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTH...AS LIFT WEAKENS 18Z SAT TO 00Z SUN.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE...MAYBE HELD DOWN A BIT IN
THE SOUTH BY THOSE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING H850 TO SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO START BRINGING WARMER AND MOISTER AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS LIFT THE FREEZING LINE NORTH
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME
COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS DAYS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW AT H500
CROSSING EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE THIS
FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS PA. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT SOME
INTERACTION WITH A LIFTING WARM FRONT FEATURE FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING THE ONSET OF PCPN AS SNOW...BUT QUICKLY CHANGING
TO RAIN AS AFOREMENTIONED WARM TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. HAVE LIKELY POP
AS NOT TRUSTING A WARM FRONT LIFTING FROM THE SOUTH.
MEANWHILE...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SPREAD ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH...EAST WITH A COLD FRONT CHANGING PCPN TO SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE LOWLANDS
WILL SEE LIQUID PCPN SUNDAY...TRANSITIONING INTO SNOW OR MIXED PCPN
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PCPN MOVES EAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE
ENDING EARLY MONDAY.

BUFKIT SOUNDING SUGGEST 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTHEAST OH...PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES WITH
THE COLD FRONT. CONTINUED WORDING IN HWO FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORIES
DUE TO SNOW ON SUNDAY. SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. FIGURED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1.5
INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HAVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S...AND MID TO LOW 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY REMAINS
RELATIVELY WARM BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS COVERING THE SKIES.

WENT WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLENDED WITH BIAS
CORRECTED NAM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER IN
TERMS OF OVERALL PATTERN...ALTHOUGH TIMING ISSUES REMAIN. BRIEF
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON A LITTLE LONGER. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL CHANGE AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN SLEET AT THE ONSET TUESDAY...BEFORE ENOUGH
WARM AIR IS ABLE TO SURGE NORTH TO SCOUR OUT COLDER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE GOOD TAP OF GULF MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING...WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 1.2 TO 1.3
INCHES...OR ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS...WILL RESULT IN
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT EXPECTED ACROSS WV
LOWLANDS AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. THE HEAVY RAIN...COMBINED WITH ANY SNOW
MELT THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES...COULD
CREATE FLOODING ISSUES. THERE IS A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR AND HOW RAPID IT WILL
BE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS INITIALLY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND POSSIBLY RIVERS AS TIME PROGRESSES.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK WITH THE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HOPEFULLY KEEP THE BULK OF MOISTURE WITH
THAT LOW TO OUR SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND TAKING HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOWFALL BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FLOODING
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR THE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR MOST PLACES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOWER VSBYS NORTH PER MODEL GUIDANCE
...BUT GIVEN DEW POINTS ARE SO LOW IT WOULD BE HARD TO IMAGINE
THIS CULMINATING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SAT
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JW









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