Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 231730
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND REMAIN ON FRIDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING CALM IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER FOG
WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO HAMPER
FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGHER
CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT. JUST SOME SOME CLOUDS WITH
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BUILDS
IN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. USED A BLEND OF CURRENT GRIDS AND
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON
GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY RAISE AND
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING
CALM IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION
OF WHETHER FOG WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL
ATTEMPT TO HAMPER FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY
PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD VARY. FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...RPY










USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.