Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 010006
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
806 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front slides through tonight. Drier and cooler weather
through the end of the week and into the weekend unless tropical
storm Hermine takes a more westward track.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM Wednesday...

Forecast largely on track. Largest thunderstorm complex was
entering the forecast area from the west as of 00Z, with mainly
just showers elsewhere.

As of 200 PM Wednesday...

Have two areas that we are watching this afternoon. The first is
an area of moisture convergence set up across Southern West
Virginia into Northern Kentucky. We are seeing pop up showers
along this boundary...but they are very isolated and decided to
not go higher than slight chance PoPs here through this afternoon.
After we lose daytime heating we will see the showers diminish in
these areas.

The other area we are watching is the cold front approaching from
the northwest. Starting to see showers increase in coverage with
the front across Central Ohio and the showers/thunderstorms will
continue to push Southeast into our region through the afternoon
and into this evening. The best chance for rain from this front
will be across our Northern Ohio River Valley counties...but after
sunset guidance is indicating that shower activity along the
front will diminish. Have kept chance PoP across the area for now
tonight...but it looks like most areas across the Southern Half of
West Virginia will remain dry.

Behind the front we are looking at much cooler and drier weather.
Going to feel a bit like Autumn as we end the work week...as
dewpoint drop down into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

Quiet cool and dry conditions arrive though may be short-lived
depending on the track of tropical storm Hermine which 12Z models
jaunted on a more westward track. If that is the case, the eastern
portions of our area could see a bit of rain Saturday morning into
Sunday. If not, we stay cool and dry. In this package, I hinted at
some higher PoPs in the mountains and increased cloud cover in the
event that the track is more westward.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

High pressure builds across the area again...and then remains in
control through the remainder of the period. This should result
in dry weather...with a warming trend. A weak front may approach
late Wednesday from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM Wednesday...

A weak cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms to the middle
Ohio Valley this evening will cross the area overnight and
Thursday morning. The showers and thunderstorms will generally
become weaker and fewer and farther between as they move into WV
tonight.

Most of the precipitation was already in the form of just showers
as of 00Z. However, one cluster of intense thunderstorms over
extreme northeast Kentucky and extreme southeast Ohio will pass
just north of the HTS tri-state airport 00Z-03Z. While it is not
likely to directly impact the airport, gusty north winds and MVFR
to even brief IFR ceilings are possible.

A greater impact of the thunderstorm cluster on HTS could also worsen
the fog and low cloud forecast there for late overnight into
Thursday morning.

As the front crosses, MVFR stratocu is likely to form in its wake
Thursday morning. This will form earliest and be most persistent
from PKB through CKB to EKN, where brief IFR is possible, as the
front crosses there first. Visibility Thursday morning is not
likely to be worse than MVFR on account of the clouds, which will
mix up and out late Thursday morning and Thursday afternoon.

Surface flow will generally be light northwest while light west
flow aloft overnight becomes light northwest on Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers or a thunderstorm this evening could
bring brief MVFR to IFR conditions. The MVFR mist forecast for
BKW 04-08Z is on account of the earlier rain and prior to clouds
increasing there, and may not happen. Timing and heights of low
stratus behind the front could vary Thursday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 09/01/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    L

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...

IFR possible overnight Thursday night into Friday morning in Fog.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MPK
NEAR TERM...TRM/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...TRM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.