Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
000
FXXX10 KWNP 220033
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Oct 22 0031 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 22-Oct 24 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 22-Oct 24 2014

            Oct 22     Oct 23     Oct 24
00-03UT        4          4          4
03-06UT        4          3          3
06-09UT        3          2          3
09-12UT        3          3          3
12-15UT        3          3          3
15-18UT        3          3          3
18-21UT        2          3          3
21-00UT        3          3          3

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to
active conditions, with a slight chance for a (G1-Minor) storm period,
for days one through 3 (22-24 Oct) as high speed stream effects
continue.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 22-Oct 24 2014

              Oct 22  Oct 23  Oct 24
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
enhancement at or above the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm level over
the next three days (22-24 Oct) as Region 2192 moves into a more
favorable position on the solar disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 21 2014 1338 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 22-Oct 24 2014

              Oct 22        Oct 23        Oct 24
R1-R2           65%           65%           65%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: More M-class flares (R1-R2, minor to moderate) are likely
from Region 2192, keeping solar activity at moderate levels.  There is a
slight but persistent chance for an X-class (R3 or greater) flare over
the next three days (22-24 Oct) from this same region.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.