Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 310030
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Jul 31 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 31-Aug 02 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 31-Aug 02 2015

            Jul 31     Aug 01     Aug 02
00-03UT        5 (G1)     5 (G1)     4
03-06UT        4          4          1
06-09UT        3          4          3
09-12UT        3          3          3
12-15UT        2          3          3
15-18UT        2          3          3
18-21UT        4          4          3
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          3

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 31 July and 01
August due to coronal hole high speed stream influence.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2015

              Jul 31  Aug 01  Aug 02
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2015

              Jul 31        Aug 01        Aug 02
R1-R2            5%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


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