Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 231231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Feb 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 23-Feb 25 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 23-Feb 25 2017

            Feb 23     Feb 24     Feb 25
00-03UT        2          4          3
03-06UT        2          3          2
06-09UT        2          3          2
09-12UT        2          2          2
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        3          3          2
21-00UT        5 (G1)     3          3

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely late on day one (23
Feb) due to CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 23-Feb 25 2017

              Feb 23  Feb 24  Feb 25
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 23-Feb 25 2017

              Feb 23        Feb 24        Feb 25
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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