Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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050
FXXX10 KWNP 101231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Feb 10 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 10-Feb 12 2016 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 10-Feb 12 2016

            Feb 10     Feb 11     Feb 12
00-03UT        3          2          3
03-06UT        2          2          4
06-09UT        2          2          3
09-12UT        1          2          4
12-15UT        2          1          3
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        2          3          3
21-00UT        2          3          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. The
geomagnetic field is expected to continue at predominantly quiet
levels, with an isolated unsettled period on day one (10 Feb) in
response to waning CME effects. Day two (11 Feb) is expected to be
mostly quiet until later in the day when unsettled conditions are
expected due to the IMF becoming slightly disturbed and enhanced due to
an approaching CIR. Day three (12 Feb) is expected see a few periods of
active conditions due to CIR and CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 10-Feb 12 2016

              Feb 10  Feb 11  Feb 12
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 10-Feb 12 2016

              Feb 10        Feb 11        Feb 12
R1-R2            5%            5%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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