Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 111701
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-251715-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1201 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
OVER THE PAST WEEK...

SYNOPSIS...

SEPTEMBER HAS SEEN SPOTTY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
LARGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO DATE HAVE BEEN SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES. ON THE OTHER
HAND...MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL DUE TO
THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. MOST RIVERS...CREEKS AND
STREAMS CONTINUE TO HAVE VERY LOW FLOWS AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ARE DRY OR HAVE NO FLOW. LAKES AND RESERVOIRS HAVE CONTINUED TO
SHOW DECLINES IN LEVELS WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT OR ABSENT.
MANY LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR THE YEAR TO
DATE. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW
AVERAGE FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS HAVE RETURNED IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO
THE LACK OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. CURRENTLY THE
MAIN SHORT TERM IMPACTS ARE WATER RESTRICTIONS AND COUNTY-WIDE
BURN BANS. LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN
IN A MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND
AQUIFERS ARE VERY LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE
TO SEE FREQUENT RAINFALL EVENTS. THERE ARE A FEW LAKES THAT ARE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CONSERVATION POOL IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
MONTHS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO WATCH...SAYING
THERE IS AT LEAST A 65 PERCENT CHANCE A WEAK TO MODERATE EL NINO
EVENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA
AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER
PATTERNS TOO... SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE
PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR
THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID SEPTEMBER 9TH AND ISSUED ON
SEPTEMBER 11TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE
PAST WEEK..MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO
EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE
(D2) DROUGHT STATUS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY ARE IN EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT STATUS.

CURRENTLY 58 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND TWO PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW TO MODERATE DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. IF
WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL
REMAIN HIGH.

AS OF SEPTEMBER 11TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR
18 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

ATASCOSA
BEXAR
BURNET
CALDWELL
COMAL
DEWITT
FAYETTE
GONZALES
GUADALUPE
HAYS
KENDALL
LLANO
MEDINA
TRAVIS
UVALDE
VAL VERDE
WILLIAMSON
WILSON


COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

BANDERA    KERR
BASTROP    KINNEY
BLANCO     LAVACA
DIMMIT     LEE
EDWARDS    MAVERICK
FRIO       REAL
GILLESPIE  ZAVALA
KARNES

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE SEPTEMBER 11TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED
THE FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

400-500    500-600      600-700

BANDERA    BASTROP      ATASCOSA
EDWARDS    BLANCO       BEXAR
GILLESPIE  BURNET       CALDWELL
KERR       DEWITT       COMAL
REAL       GONZALES     DIMMIT
UVALDE     KARNES       FAYETTE
           KENDALL      FRIO
           KINNEY       HAYS
           LEE          GUADALUPE
           LLANO        LAVACA
           TRAVIS       LEE
           VAL VERDE    MAVERICK
           WILSON       WILLIAMSON
                        ZAVALA

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON SEPTEMBER 9 2014 INDICATED...WEATHER IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT BEGAN TO COOL A LITTLE. MUCH OF THE
DISTRICT RECEIVED SPOTTY SHOWERS. THE COOLER WEATHER AND THE
SHOWERS HELPED STABILIZE TOPSOIL AND SUBSOIL MOISTURE. THE GRAIN
SORGHUM HARVEST WAS WRAPPED UP...WITH AVERAGE YIELDS REPORTED. THE
CORN HARVEST WAS MOSTLY FINISHED...WITH FAIR TO POOR YIELDS.
COTTON WAS IN VARIOUS STAGES OF DEFOLIATION...WITH A FEW AREAS
GEARING UP TO STRIP OR PICK. BOTH PASTURE AND FORAGE CROPS IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE REGION NEEDED RAIN. LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
REMAINED IN FAIR CONDITION IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. DOVE NUMBERS
WERE SOLID. FORAGE AVAILABILITY AND BROWSING FOR DEER WAS
GOOD...AND A GOOD ACORN CROP WAS PREDICTED...WHICH PROMISED AN
EXCELLENT DEER HUNTING SEASON.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2014 TO MIDNIGHT SEPTEMBER 10, 2014
AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2014       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY      21.28       23.22       -1.94          92%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM  15.80       23.98       -8.18          66%
SAN ANTONIO       16.26       22.02       -5.76          74%
DEL RIO            8.02       14.33       -6.31          56%

FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 0.85 OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THIS IS 0.03 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 0.82 OF AN INCH.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE IS 85.1 DEGREES.
THIS IS 2.0 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 83.1 DEGREES.

FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.19 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.89 OF AN INCH BELOW
THE NORMAL OF 1.08 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN
ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE IS 86.1
DEGREES. THIS IS 3.6 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 82.5 DEGREES.

FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 1.42 INCHES OF
RAIN. THIS IS 0.29 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 1.13 INCHES. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE IS 86.3
DEGREES. THIS IS 3.4 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 82.9 DEGREES.

FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
HAS RECEIVED 0.25 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.63 OF AN INCH BELOW
THE NORMAL OF 0.99 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE IS
84.8 DEGREES. THIS IS 4.3 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 80.5 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED SEPTEMBER 10 AND VALID SEPTEMBER 18 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 24
WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
NEAR AVERAGE RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 2014 THROUGH NOVEMBER
2014...CREATED ON AUGUST 21ST WAS INDICATING NO STRONG SIGNALS
FOR AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WHICH
INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD. THE OUTLOOKS WERE INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON
SEPTEMBER 18 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE IMPROVED IN SOME AREAS AND
GROWN WORSE IN OTHER LOCATIONS. MOST LOCATIONS STILL HAVE A
DEFICIT FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. THE LACK OF RAINFALL HAS CAUSED LAKE
LEVELS TO FALL. WITH EVAPORATION RATES REMAINING HIGH THESE
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE...MEDINA...UPPER SAN ANTONIO AND UPPER COLORADO
BASINS. THE MIDDLE GUADALUPE...FRIO AND NUECES BASINS REPORTED
BELOW NORMAL (10-24 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW AVERAGES. THE LOWER
COLORADO...LOWER SAN ANTONIO...UPPER GUADALUPE AND LOWER
GUADALUPE BASINS REPORTED MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT)
STREAM FLOW AVERAGES.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF SEPTEMBER 11TH...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                 1075.9           -41.1
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2                976.9           -87.3
CANYON LAKE          909                  898.1           -10.9
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                  774.8           -16.2
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                  986.9           -33.1
LAKE TRAVIS          681                  623.1           -57.9

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 630 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
4 RESTRICTIONS.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER AUTHORITY HAS DECLARED STAGE 4 RESTRICTIONS
WHICH MEANS THE LARGE USERS OF WATER MUST REDUCE THEIR PUMPING BY
40 PERCENT.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT      2013 LEVEL   DEPARTURE
  LEVEL      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2013

 627.3 FT      633.4 FT     -6.1 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS
DECLARED STAGE 2 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS. THIS REQUIRES A 20
PERCENT REDUCTION IN PUMPING.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 4
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 2
DEL RIO                   STAGE 1
SEGUIN                    STAGE 1 NORMAL/AWARENESS WATER STAGE

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND SEPTEMBER 25 2014 OR SOONER
IF NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$










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