Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FGUS72 KCAE 161707

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
107 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

...Winter and Spring Flood Potential Outlook...

...Expect below normal to near normal potential of river flooding
across the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area...

This Winter and Spring Flood Potential Outlook is for rivers and
tributaries of the Central Savannah River Basin...East-Central
Georgia and Central South Carolina including the following:

Savannah River Basin Downstream of R. B. Russell Reservoir and
upstream from Burtons Ferry...

The Edisto River basin upstream of the Bamberg and Orangeburg
County line in South Carolina...

The Santee River Basin upstream of the Clarendon and Berkeley
County line and downstream on the Saluda and Broad Rivers at the
Greenwood/Saluda...Laurens/Newberry...Union/Fairfield and the
Chester/Fairfield County lines in South Carolina...

The Wateree River System downstream of Great Falls South

The Great Pee Dee River Basin in Chesterfield County in South

           ...Summary of Recent Weather Events...

Over the last 14 days ending March 16 2017...the hydrologic area
received rainfall amounts that ranged from one half inch up to one
inch across the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area. This is
approximately 50 to 90 percent of normal for the 14 day period.

          ...Soul Moisture-Drought Conditions...

Here is a breakdown of the current conditions across the Midlands
and CSRA.

D1...Moderate Drought covered just the extreme northern CSRA and
western Midlands. This includes the counties of
Lincoln...McCormick...extreme northern Edgefield.

D0...Abnormally Dry conditions covered parts of the CSRA and
western Midlands. This includes the counties of northern
Columbia...northwest Edgefield.....northern McDuffie...Newberry
and western Fairfield...Lancaster...Chesterfield...Kershaw...
Lee...northern Sumter and extreme northern Lexington and Richland

The remainder of the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area
showed no drought conditions.

Go to www.drought.gov for more details.

             ...River and Stream Flow...

Looking at the 14 day stream flow average compared to historical
streamflows for March 15 2017 show nearly all of the streamflows
across the region at Below Normal to Much Below Normal. This
includes the basins of: The Savannah River...The Saluda River...
The Catawba/Wateree Rivers and the Edisto River. The only basin
that indicated conditions near/above normal was the Santee Basin.

Many of the Rivers where stream flow remains below normal for the
historical period are those with reservoirs. This includes the
Middle Saluda River Basin...the Savannah River Basin and the
Catawba-Wateree Basin.

                ...Reservoir Levels...

Area reservoirs remain mixed. Areas along the Savannah River
Basin are below normal for their Winter target pool/guide curves.
The Saluda and Santee Basins remain near or just above
their Winter target pool/guide curves.

Lake Thurmond (FP 330.0 Feet)...
Mar 02 2017    319.77 Feet
Mar 16 2017    320.05 Feet
Difference Plus  0.73 Feet

Lake Greenwood (FP 440.0 Feet)...
Mar 02 2017    435.56 Feet
Mar 16 2017    436.11 Feet
Difference Plus  0.55 Feet

Lake Murray (FP 360.0 Feet)...
Mar 02 2017    356.91 Feet
Mar 16 2017    356.89 Feet
Difference Minus 0.03 Feet

Lake Marion (FP 76.8 Feet)...
Mar 02 2017     74.93 Feet
Mar 16 2017     74.67 Feet
Difference Minus 0.26 Feet

Lake Wateree (FP 100.00 Feet)...
Feb 16 2017     98.57 Feet
Mar 02 2017     98.17 Feet
Difference Minus 0.40 Feet

Data for this segment was gathered from the United States
Geological Survey...the United States Army Corps of
Engineers...Duke Energy...South Carolina Electric and Gas and
Santee Cooper.

      ...Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks...

Near Term...A weak cold front will move across the region Saturday
but rainfall amounts are expected to be one tenth of an inch or
less. Another system will affect the region early next week.
Rainfall amounts are expected to be from one tenth of an inch up
to one quarter inch. Otherwise...seasonable temperatures will
continue into the following week.

Please see the Gridded Forecasts for the chance of rain over the
next 7 days at weather.gov/cae.

The 8 to 14 Day Outlook for the period March 23 to March 29 calls
for a 40 to 50 percent chance of above normal temperatures. There
will be equal chances of above...below and normal precipitation
through the period.

The 30-Day Outlook for April 2017 indicates 40 percent chance of
above normal temperatures with equal chance for above...below and
normal precipitation.

The 3-Month Outlook for April...May and June calls for a 50
percent chance of above normal temperatures with equal chances of
above...below and near normal precipitation.

Go to the Climate Prediction Center webpage at
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov for more details and the latest outlooks.


The Spring Flood Outlook calls for below normal potential of
river flooding across Central South Carolina and East-Central

Historically...the River Flood Season begins in early to mid
January with the number of river flood events increasing through
late Winter. The peak occurs in early to mid March then begins to
end in late April for the region.

Although moderate to severe drought continues over portions of
the Upstate and Piedmont of South Carolina and portions of
Georgia, rainfall over the past 60 days has reduced the area
impacted by drought. However, rainfall has not been excessive and
the risk of significant river flooding during the late Winter
into Spring is minimal.

For this region...streamflows are running below normal. The
medium to long range precipitation guidance indicates no
trends toward above...below or normal precipitation for the
period. The area Reservoirs along the Savannah River are running
below target pool or guide curves. The Santee and Catawba River
Reservoirs are running near or just above normal for their target
pool/guide curves for middle March. Overall...the relative risk
of river flooding downstream from these projects is below normal.

The next schedule Winter/Spring Flood Outlook is scheduled for
March 30 2017.

For additional Drought Information, please check out the latest
Drought Information Statement from the NWS Columbia Office. You
can view the product at:


                ...Questions and Comments...

If you have any questions or comments about this outlook please

The National Weather Service
2909 Aviation Way
West Columbia SC 29170
Phone: 803-822-8135
Internet Address: caewx@noaa.gov
Senior Service Hydrologist:



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