Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FGUS73 KGLD 221458
ESFGLD
NEC057-087-145-KSC039-063-109-137-153-222058-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
858 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND OFFICE HAS RECENTLY
IMPLEMENTED LONG RANGE AHPS RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR SOME OF ITS FORECAST
LOCATIONS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED MONTHLY BETWEEN THE THIRD AND
FOURTH THURSDAYS. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE 3
DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE
IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

A BRIEF EXPLANATION OF THE METHODOLOGY USED IN CREATING THESE
FORECASTS IS GIVEN BELOW THE TABLE.

      CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
        VALID JULY 22, 2014 - OCTOBER 24, 2014

LOCATION        FS    90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------       ----   ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

ARIKAREE RIVER
 HAIGLER       12.0   4.4                 4.7                 6.6

REPUBLICAN RIVER
 1 SW BENKELMAN 7.0   3.4                 3.4                 4.7
 STRATTON      11.0   6.4                 6.5                 9.1
 1 SE MCCOOK    9.0   3.6                 3.8                 6.1

SOUTH FORK
REPUBLICAN RIVER
 2 SSW BENKELMAN 9.0   0.3                 0.3                 2.9

FRENCHMAN CREEK
 CULBERTSON     8.0   2.8                 3.0                 5.3

DRIFTWOOD CREEK
 4 SW MCCOOK   17.0   2.9                 2.9                10.3

BEAVER CREEK
 CEDAR BLUFFS  16.0   2.7                 2.7                 9.4
 LUDELL         9.0   2.0                 3.7                 9.8

SAPPA CREEK
15 NE NORCATUR 17.0   5.3                 6.3                12.2
 1 SW OBERLIN  11.0   5.0                 7.5                11.3

HACKBERRY CREEK
 GOVE          19.0   6.3                 6.3                 8.7

NORTH FORK SOLOMON RIVER
 LENORA        10.0   3.8                 3.8                 4.8

SMOKY HILL RIVER
 22 S OAKLEY    9.0   4.3                 5.1                 7.9

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED TOWARD THE END
OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=GLD FOR
MORE WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC
RIVER OUTLOOKS.

$$




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