Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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115-021-089-149-161-111-199-121-011-023-045-071-109-
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051958-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
800 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAS AVERAGED AROUND 25 PERCENT
OF NORMAL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...AND AROUND 50 PERCENT
OF NORMAL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOWS OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION...
AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE
WINTER...THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THOSE RIVER
FLOODS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE TYPICAL YEAR...OR
CLIMATOLOGICALLY OBSERVED.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF JANUARY 22ND ARE RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE AND WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

RESERVOIRS...MOST RESERVOIRS ARE STILL NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...AFTER TODAY/S EXPECTED RAINFALL...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. LATEST
WPC AND CPC FORECASTS ALSO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...AN EL NINO WATCH
CONTINUES AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC MAY REACH WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS.  BASED ON THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENSO CONDITION AS WELL AS THE LATEST CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST...THERE IS EQUAL CHANCES AT BELOW...NEAR
NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL.
SEE THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB SITE FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR
5 FEB 2015

$$





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