Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1136 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

Rainfall during the last one to three months has been near to
below normal across the area. Due to the relatively dry conditions
over the parts of the area served by NWS Wilmington, the U.S.
Drought Monitor has classified a large part of the area as
abnormally dry with a small area of moderate drought over the
northwest.

The table below summarizes precipitation amounts at area
observation sites through Thursday January 18th for various time
scales.

WILMINGTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      5.43      3.57      1.86       152%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      7.87      7.06      0.81       111%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     13.40     10.13      3.27       132%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     30.62     30.55      0.07       100%
                ONE YEAR      64.69     59.66      5.03       108%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     73.89     67.23      6.66       110%

LUMBERTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      1.29      2.50     -1.21        52%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      4.75      5.55     -0.80        86%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      6.00      7.93     -1.93        76%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     20.59     21.94     -1.35        94%
                ONE YEAR      42.50     44.97     -2.47        95%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     49.48     51.18     -1.70        97%

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      3.38      3.19      0.19       106%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      5.56      6.58     -1.02        84%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      9.32      9.59     -0.27        97%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     32.23     27.76      4.47       116%
                ONE YEAR      50.35     53.87     -3.52        93%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     53.84     61.09     -7.25        88%

FLORENCE SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      1.95      3.13     -1.18        62%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      5.27      5.92     -0.65        89%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      6.89      8.52     -1.63        81%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     15.79     21.20     -5.41        74%
                ONE YEAR      41.09     44.70     -3.61        92%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     48.72     50.98     -2.26        96%

Streamflow values across the area are generally at below normal
values for this time of year and upstream reservoir levels are
mainly below normal. Soil moisture conditions are at normal to
slightly below normal levels.

During the next seven days, there is a chance of showers Monday.
Otherwise, the next seven days are currently forecast to be dry
and rainfall amounts the next seven days are expected to be below
normal. The eight to fourteen day outlook calls for above normal
rainfall. The outlook for February through April from the Climate
Prediction Center calls for below normal rainfall.

In consideration of the above factors, this outlook calls for a
below normal risk of flooding through April.

The next scheduled Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by
February 2nd.

$$

RAN



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