Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS

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722
FGMY70 PGUM 101906
ESFMY
GUZ001>004-110800-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
506 AM ChST Thu Aug 11 2016

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE MARIANAS BEGINNING
SATURDAY...

A MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE MARIANAS INTO TROPICAL
STORM CONSON. THIS TROUGH REMAINS WEAK AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH TS
CONSON WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF GUAM AND THE CNMI. THE LATEST
COMPUTER MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH TS CONSON MOVING NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE DEVELOPING OTHER CIRCULATIONS
ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS. THE LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE GFS MODEL HAVE INDICATED RAINFALL WELL IN EXCESS OF 10
INCHES ACROSS ALL THE MARIANAS BEGINNING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWED A
DRIER PATTERN OVER THE MARIANAS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUN IS NOW
COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS MODEL...WITH RAINFALL NEAR 10
INCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF THIS PATTERN DOES DEVELOP AS
THE GFS INDICATES...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD PRODUCE
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO CLEAR DRAINAGE AREAS AND UN-BLOCK CLOGGED
STORM DRAINS IN YOUR AREA TO MINIMIZE THE CHANCE OF FLOODING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE



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