Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
535 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 /435 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION STARTING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...

.ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
RAINFALL FROM LAST WEEKEND HAS SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
ADDITIONALLY...SOILS ARE RELATIVELY MOIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 15 DAYS HAS BEEN
AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SUGGESTING THE GREATEST VULNERABILITY TO FUTURE
FLOODING IS ACROSS THIS AREA.

.EVENT SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH
OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING ENDING THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT.

.RAINFALL TOTALS...
DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR FLOODING FROM A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...THE WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. IN THESE
AREAS...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE. FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND INTO THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

.IMPACTS...
GIVEN THE WET SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ON FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

WITH SEVERAL RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...EXPECT
ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD IMPACTS TO CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE...CHIPOLA...APALACHICOLA AND OCHLOCKONEE RIVERS
ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

STAY ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND FUTURE WARNINGS ON
THIS EVENT. FOR CURRENT AND FUTURE HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION VISIT
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TALLAHASSEE AND CLICK ON THE RIVERS
AND LAKES LINK.

$$

GODSEY



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