Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Arkansas-Red Basin RFC

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Flood Potential Outlook

National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma

1125 CST, Wednesday, February 15, 2017



                          COLORADO

                -- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--



The Rocky Mountains



Although snowpack totals are above average across Colorado, the

potential for flooding due to snowmelt is near normal this spring.

Flooding at most forecast points in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado

is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity

rainfall.



As measured at high altitude SNOTEL monitoring stations, the

mountains of the Arkansas River basin received approximately 118

percent of the median precipitation and have accumulated 149 percent

of the median snowpack this water year. A more detailed table is

included below. This water-year`s precipitation is about 118 percent

of last year`s. SNOTEL locations across the area generally show snow

water equivalent amounts significantly above normal. At the end of

January, mountain reservoirs above Pueblo were, on average, at 76

percent of capacity.  This represents 106 percent of average storage

and 90 percent of last year`s storage. Reservoirs below Pueblo are

at 74 percent of capacity, 61 percent of last year`s storage, and

90 percent of the long-term average.





    S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E



        Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites

              As of Tuesday: February 14, 2017

-------------------------------------------------------------------

BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT   TOTAL PRECIPITATION

Data Site Name   (Ft)                      %                      %

                       Current  Median  Med.  Current  Median  Med

-------------------------------------------------------------------



ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN



APISHAPA         10000     8.5   5.2     163    9.4     8.2     115

BRUMLEY          10600    12.1   6.4     189   11.1     9.0     123

FREMONT PASS     11400    13.6  10.3     132   14.5    10.5     138

PORPHYRY CREEK   10760    19.1  10.5     182   16.0    10.3     155

SOUTH COLONY     10800    12.9  13.1      98   14.7    14.3     103

WHISKEY CK       10220    12.2   6.9     177   12.4    10.6     117

                                        -----                  -----

         Basin wide percent of average   149                    118



Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent

and Total Precipitation values



The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlook for late winter and

spring (FEB-MAR-APR) indicates slightly increased chances (33%-40%) of

above normal temperatures across the southern half of Colorado. The

CPC Outlook also calls for equal chances (33%) of above, below, or near

normal precipitation across much of Colorado during the same period.



Current soil moisture estimates from the CPC are near normal in the

mountain headwaters of the Arkansas River, while soil moisture is

slightly below normal across parts of Eastern Colorado.  Soil moisture

estimates for the end of January were between the 30th and 70th

percentiles throughout the area.



The ESP model does not indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of

flooding at any forecast point.  The table below contains a summary

of the most probable maximum stages from the model output.



            Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

              As of Tuesday: February 14, 2017

               Feb 14 - Jun 14 50% Exceedence

    Weekly

     Flood         50% exceedence    50% exceedence

  Station  Stage(ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)

------------------------------------------------------------------

 Leadville     9.0                7.7                  7.3

 Salida        8.0                4.9                  4.6

 Wellsville    9.0                6.4                  6.2

 Parkdale      9.0                5.5                  5.2

 Canon City   10.0                8.4                  8.1

 Portland      9.0                5.2                  4.8

 Pueblo        8.0                6.2                  5.9



The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that Moderate Drought (D1)

conditions are currently present across much of Eastern Colorado.

The remainder of Eastern Colorado are experiencing Abnormally

Dry (D0) conditions. The US Seasonal Drought Outlook shows drought

conditions are expected to improve across Colorado during the next

3 months.





The Southeastern Plains



The potential for flood conditions is near normal this spring. Normal

conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low probability of

flooding.



Current Climate Prediction Center (CPC) soil moisture estimates for

the area indicate near to slightly below normal conditions in

Southeastern Colorado.  Soil moisture values in the 20th to the 70th

percentile dominate that part of the state.



The Arkansas River is generally flowing at near to below normal levels

downstream from Pueblo Reservoir. Fountain Creek is flowing at above

normal levels.



The ESP model does not indicate any probabilities of flooding greater

than 50 percent. The table below shows the probability of flooding

during the next 120 days at four forecast points.



             Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

               As of Wednesday: February 15, 2017



Fcst Point    % Probability    % Probability      % Probability

Station    Minor Flooding  Moderate FloodingMajor Flooding

ID

ARCC2          Not Expected     Not Expected      Not Expected

LXHC2             19                  4                 3

LAPC2              8                  3                 2

LMAC2          Not Expected     Not Expected      Not Expected



According to the U.S. Drought Monitor the plains of Southeastern

Colorado are in Moderate Drought (D1). The US Seasonal Drought Outlook

calls for improvement to the drought conditions across the area during

the next three months.



   *******************************************************

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   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *

   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *

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SOUTHERN KANSAS



The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas is near normal

this spring. Most flooding in Kansas is directly related to specific

precipitation events. Southwest Kansas has been very dry for the last

several months, leading to a return to drought conditions.



Precipitation so far during the winter is above average. However, this

is their dry season, so amounts have been fairly low. Longer term, the

area has been dry. Southeast Kansas has been extremely dry during the

past 90 days. Drought is also a major concern here. Although relatively

dry in the short term, South-central Kansas was fairly wet during the

past 180 days.



According to the Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) estimates, soil

moisture across Southwest and Southeast Kansas was between the 30th and

70th perncentiles. With the wetter long term conditions, South-central

Kansas was in the 70th to 95th percentiles.



Streamflows across Southwest Kansas are below normal, while they are

generally near to above normal across the eastern half of Kansas.



Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is near normal. U.S. Corps of

Engineers data indicate that Corps reservoirs in southern Kansas

currently have an average of 99 percent of their flood-control storage

available.



Through the late winter and early spring months (FEB-MAR-APR), the

CPC`s outlook for southern Kansas calls for increased chances

(33%-40%) of above normal temperatures in southern Kansas. The

precipitation outlook for the same period indicates equal chances (33%)

of below, near, or above normal precipitation.



The U.S. Drought Monitor currently indicates Severe Drought (D2)

conditions across parts of Southwest Kansas. Moderate Drought (D1) is

also prevalent in the remainder of Southwest Kansas. Abnormally Dry

(D0) is indicated for Southeast Kansas, based on their recent dryness.

The CPC`s US Seasonal Drought Outlook for the next three months calls

for improvements in the drought conditions across Southwest Kansas and

no deterioration across the rest of the state.



The table below indicates the probability of flooding for selected

western Kansas forecast points where the model indicates a greater

than five percent chance of minor flooding. Current model output indicates

that chances of minor flooding in western Kansas are relatively low.

However, these low probabilities do not reflect extreme conditions and

indicate a near normal chance of flooding.



                   Select Points in Western Kansas

               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

                As of Wednesday: February 15, 2017



Fcst. Point% Probability   % Probability      % Probability

StationMinor Flooding  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding

ID

ENWK1                15                   3            Not Expected

FRGO2                 5              Not Expected      Not Expected

ZENK1                 6                   3            Not Expected



The table below presents some south-central and southeast Kansas

forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10%

chance of minor flooding.  These are not extreme conditions and in

the long term do not reflect an above normal potential for flooding.



        Select Points in South-central and Southeast Kansas

               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

                As of Wednesday: February 15, 2017



Fcst. Point% Probability   % Probability      % Probability

StationMinor Flooding  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding

ID

ALMK1               18                 10             Not Expected

ARCK1               39                  9             Not Expected

ARKK1               17                  2             Not Expected

ATOK1               20                  4             Not Expected

CBNK1               40            Not Expected        Not Expected

CFVK1               18                  5             Not Expected

CNUK1               29                 17                   3

COWK1               19            Not Expected        Not Expected

CTWK1               30                 12             Not Expected

DRBK1               17                  7             Not Expected

EREK1               30                 29                  19

FLRK1               25                  2             Not Expected

FRNK1               17                  6             Not Expected

HAVK1               11                  2             Not Expected

HTCK1               44                 29             Not Expected

HTDK1               18                  7             Not Expected

IDPK1               30            Not Expected        Not Expected

IOLK1               20                  9             Not Expected

MDKK1               29                 10             Not Expected

MULK1               18                 12                  9

OSWK1               44                 38                  8

OXFK1               29                 18             Not Expected

PECK1               12            Not Expected        Not Expected

PPFK1               48                 40             Not Expected

PLYK1               26                 12             Not Expected

SEDK1               18                  7                  6

TOWK1               21                 11                  2

WFDK1               30                 15                  4

EMPK1               35                 19             Not Expected

EPRK1               18                 17             Not Expected

LRYK1               11                 11             Not Expected

NEOK1               24                 23             Not Expected



   *******************************************************

   *                                                     *

   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *

   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *

   *                                                     *

   *       www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply            *

   *                                                     *

   *******************************************************



SOUTHWEST MISSOURI



The potential for flood conditions in southwest Missouri is near

normal this spring. Most flooding in this area is related to

specific rainfall events. Therefore, current conditions do not

necessarily indicate an increased or decreased risk of spring

flooding.



It has been a dry winter so far for Southwest Missouri, with

precipitation during the last 90 days running significantly below

average. Soil moisture in southwestern Missouri is currently well

below normal (10th to 30th percentiles). Stream flow in that part

of the state is also below normal for this time of year.



Through the late winter and early spring months (FEB-MAR-APR),

the Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) outlook for southwestern

Missouri calls for increased chances (33%-40%) of above normal

temperatures.  The outlook also indicates equal chances of below,

near, or above normal precipitation for the same period.



The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions

across Southwest Missouri. The CPC`s US Seasonal Drought Outlook

calls for no deterioration of drought conditions for the next

three months.



The table below presents some southwestern Missouri forecast points

where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor

flooding.  These are not extreme conditions and do not reflect an

above-normal potential for flooding.



                 Select Points in Southwest Missouri

                    Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

                   As of Wednesday: February 15, 2017



Fcst. Point% Probability   % Probability      % Probability

StationMinor Flooding  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding

ID

CHTM7               12                  5             Not Expected

TIFM7               20                  5                    3

WCOM7               29            Not Expected        Not Expected

BXTK1               21                  8             Not Expected



   *******************************************************

   *                                                     *

   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *

   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *

   *                                                     *

   *       www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply            *

   *                                                     *

   *******************************************************



$$




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