Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS
FGUS65 KSTR 051841
National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
May 5, 2016
FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
The 2016 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is not high at this time
for the Great Basin, as well as the Sevier, Virgin, Price/San Rafael, and the
Duchesne River Basins.
Current snowpack conditions in the above basins are below normal, except in the
Virgin and Sevier River Basins where conditions are near normal. Current seasonal
snowpack conditions as a percent of median are:
Virgin River Basin 105%
Sevier River Basin 100%
Price/San Rafael River Basin 60%
Duchesne River Basin 85%
--Bear River Basin 85%
--Weber River Basin 80%
--Six Creeks Basin 70%
--Utah Lake 65%
Currently, the following sites are forecast to peak at or above the bankfull
flow at the given exceedance level:
Green River Near Jensen, UT 10%
No sites are currently forecasted to reach flood stage at this time.
Specific forecast procedures and flood flow levels do not exist for all streams.
Given current snowpack conditions, below average to near average peaks may be
anticipated throughout the state.
Current volume forecasts for the April through July runoff period are below
average to near average over the state. In particular, volume forecasts
in the southern portion of the state and Great Basin are well below average.
It should be emphasized that snow conditions could change significantly before
seasonal runoff begins. While spring temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt
runoff and, consequently, the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also approximately
correspond to volumetric flows. It is also important to recognize that an extended
period of much above average temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt period can
cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year.
A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts are available at:
A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
CBRFC/W.P. Miller, A.Nielson, T. Cox