Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 201929
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
329 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

...Warm and rain-free through Friday...

.DISCUSSION...Rain-free but warm weather will continue through
Friday. A slightly drier airmass will settle into the area
overnight, resulting in lower humidity readings on Friday,
especially as temperatures rise well into the 80s. Breezy
conditions this afternoon will subside this evening, with lake
breezes again expected to develop Friday afternoon. Cloud cover
will increase Friday afternoon with the next chance of showers and
storms arriving Friday night into Saturday.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-210815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
329 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Patchy fog after
                    0100.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0800.
Max Temperature.....83-88...except 68-73 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (610).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 3 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers after 0200.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.37 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....76-81.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter...except 7 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (280).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 3 mph shifting to the
                    northeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.08-0.46 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-210815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
329 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0800.
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 68-73 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent...except 66-71 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 9 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (670).
Mixing Height.......5300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers after 0200.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.28 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 68-73 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........63-68 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......27 percent wetter...except 20 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (270).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph shifting to the east in the
                    afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.08-0.41 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-210815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
329 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2300.
Min Temperature.....58-63...except 65-70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0800.
Max Temperature.....83-88...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the west
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (420).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers after 0200.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 3 mph shifting to the south around
                    9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.04-0.56 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers. chance of thunderstorms after 1100
                    until 1400.
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler...except 2 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........63-68 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (240).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the northeast in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.17-0.44 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-210815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
329 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2300.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0800.
Max Temperature.....84-89...except 73-78 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent...except 66-71 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (390).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers after 2000. chance of thunderstorms
                    after 0500.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.17-0.53 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 0800. chance of showers.
                    chance of thunderstorms after 1700.
Max Temperature.....77-82.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........67-72 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......26 percent wetter...except 13 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (180).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the northeast
                    around 3 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.32-0.43 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-210815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
329 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 3 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0800.
Max Temperature.....83-88.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (740).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers after 0200.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.04-0.30 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
                    showers. chance of thunderstorms after 1100.
Max Temperature.....76-81.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........66-71 percent.
   24 HR Trend......28 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (260).
Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph shifting to the northeast in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.26-0.45 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MK



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