Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FNUS86 KLOX 132319
FWLLOX

ECCDA Discussions
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
319 PM PST Wed Dec 13 2017

ECC029-141730-
Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch
319 PM PST Wed Dec 13 2017

...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard...

...RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

...WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH VERY DRY AIR
POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

The extended period of offshore flow will continue into
Friday...focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Light
offshore winds and single digit humidities will continue across
interior portions of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through
tonight. Strengthening northeast winds are expected Thursday into
Thursday night, when gusts between 35 and 55 mph can be expected,
resulting in the potential for very rapid fire spread, long range
spotting, and extreme fire behavior. The humidities will remain
incredibly dry with extremely poor overnight recoveries nearly
everywhere tonight and again Thursday night. This will result in
continued critical fire weather conditions into Friday morning,
especially Thursday and Thursday night when the winds peak.

Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties will continue to see
periods of north to east winds (gusts of 15 to 30 mph) through the
week, including areas near the Thomas Fire...resulting in elevated
to near critical fire  weather conditions. In addition, the air mass
will be fairly unstable above the Thomas today and Thursday,
resulting in the potential for large fire plumes which will locally
enhance winds near the fire and cause erratic fire behavior.

Conditions will change Friday afternoon into Friday night, with the
flow becoming more west to northwest. By late Friday night into
Saturday, there is the potential for gusty north winds with
continued low humidities across Santa Barbara county (including the
Thomas Fire area) and the I-5 corridor. For Ventura and Los Angeles
counties, the flow may begin to shift to the northeast again during
the day Saturday, with a greater threat of increased Santa Ana winds
and low humidities late Saturday into Sunday when gusts between
35 and 50 mph will be possible. Critical Red Flag conditions will
once again be possible with the Santa Ana winds over the weekend.


...Discussion from Monterey...

An upper level high pressure area over California  will move west
out over the eastern Pacific late this week allowing a mainly dry
cold front and upper level trough to move southeast  across the
district Friday night into early Saturday morning. Dry weather then
continues this weekend with generally poor recoveries in the
mountains. A dry pattern may turn to a wet weather pattern next
week.

Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified.
Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds.



$$

ECC028-141730-
Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch
319 PM PST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH VERY DRY AIR
POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

The extended period of offshore flow will continue into
Friday...focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Light
offshore winds and single digit humidities will continue across
interior portions of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through
tonight. Strengthening northeast winds are expected Thursday into
Thursday night, when gusts between 35 and 55 mph can be expected,
resulting in the potential for very rapid fire spread, long range
spotting, and extreme fire behavior. The humidities will remain
incredibly dry with extremely poor overnight recoveries nearly
everywhere tonight and again Thursday night. This will result in
continued critical fire weather conditions into Friday morning,
especially Thursday and Thursday night when the winds peak.

Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties will continue to see
periods of north to east winds (gusts of 15 to 30 mph) through the
week, including areas near the Thomas Fire...resulting in elevated
to near critical fire  weather conditions. In addition, the air mass
will be fairly unstable above the Thomas today and Thursday,
resulting in the potential for large fire plumes which will locally
enhance winds near the fire and cause erratic fire behavior.

Conditions will change Friday afternoon into Friday night, with the
flow becoming more west to northwest. By late Friday night into
Saturday, there is the potential for gusty north winds with
continued low humidities across Santa Barbara county (including the
Thomas Fire area) and the I-5 corridor. For Ventura and Los Angeles
counties, the flow may begin to shift to the northeast again during
the day Saturday, with a greater threat of increased Santa Ana winds
and low humidities late Saturday into Sunday when gusts between
35 and 50 mph will be possible. Critical Red Flag conditions will
once again be possible with the Santa Ana winds over the weekend.


$$

ECC031-141730-
Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch
319 PM PST Wed Dec 13 2017

...RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

...WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH VERY DRY AIR
POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

The extended period of offshore flow will continue into
Friday...focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Light
offshore winds and single digit humidities will continue across
interior portions of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through
tonight. Strengthening northeast winds are expected Thursday into
Thursday night, when gusts between 35 and 55 mph can be expected,
resulting in the potential for very rapid fire spread, long range
spotting, and extreme fire behavior. The humidities will remain
incredibly dry with extremely poor overnight recoveries nearly
everywhere tonight and again Thursday night. This will result in
continued critical fire weather conditions into Friday morning,
especially Thursday and Thursday night when the winds peak.

Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties will continue to see
periods of north to east winds (gusts of 15 to 30 mph) through the
week, including areas near the Thomas Fire...resulting in elevated
to near critical fire  weather conditions. In addition, the air mass
will be fairly unstable above the Thomas today and Thursday,
resulting in the potential for large fire plumes which will locally
enhance winds near the fire and cause erratic fire behavior.

Conditions will change Friday afternoon into Friday night, with the
flow becoming more west to northwest. By late Friday night into
Saturday, there is the potential for gusty north winds with
continued low humidities across Santa Barbara county (including the
Thomas Fire area) and the I-5 corridor. For Ventura and Los Angeles
counties, the flow may begin to shift to the northeast again during
the day Saturday, with a greater threat of increased Santa Ana winds
and low humidities late Saturday into Sunday when gusts between
35 and 50 mph will be possible. Critical Red Flag conditions will
once again be possible with the Santa Ana winds over the weekend.


$$

ECC024-141730-
San Luis Obispo County-
Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch
319 PM PST Wed Dec 13 2017


...WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH VERY DRY AIR
POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

The extended period of offshore flow will continue into
Friday...focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Light
offshore winds and single digit humidities will continue across
interior portions of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through
tonight. Strengthening northeast winds are expected Thursday into
Thursday night, when gusts between 35 and 55 mph can be expected,
resulting in the potential for very rapid fire spread, long range
spotting, and extreme fire behavior. The humidities will remain
incredibly dry with extremely poor overnight recoveries nearly
everywhere tonight and again Thursday night. This will result in
continued critical fire weather conditions into Friday morning,
especially Thursday and Thursday night when the winds peak.

Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties will continue to see
periods of north to east winds (gusts of 15 to 30 mph) through the
week, including areas near the Thomas Fire...resulting in elevated
to near critical fire  weather conditions. In addition, the air mass
will be fairly unstable above the Thomas today and Thursday,
resulting in the potential for large fire plumes which will locally
enhance winds near the fire and cause erratic fire behavior.

Conditions will change Friday afternoon into Friday night, with the
flow becoming more west to northwest. By late Friday night into
Saturday, there is the potential for gusty north winds with
continued low humidities across Santa Barbara county (including the
Thomas Fire area) and the I-5 corridor. For Ventura and Los Angeles
counties, the flow may begin to shift to the northeast again during
the day Saturday, with a greater threat of increased Santa Ana winds
and low humidities late Saturday into Sunday when gusts between
35 and 50 mph will be possible. Critical Red Flag conditions will
once again be possible with the Santa Ana winds over the weekend.


$$

ECC032-141730-
Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch
319 PM PST Wed Dec 13 2017

...RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

...WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH VERY DRY AIR
POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

The extended period of offshore flow will continue into
Friday...focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Light
offshore winds and single digit humidities will continue across
interior portions of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through
tonight. Strengthening northeast winds are expected Thursday into
Thursday night, when gusts between 35 and 55 mph can be expected,
resulting in the potential for very rapid fire spread, long range
spotting, and extreme fire behavior. The humidities will remain
incredibly dry with extremely poor overnight recoveries nearly
everywhere tonight and again Thursday night. This will result in
continued critical fire weather conditions into Friday morning,
especially Thursday and Thursday night when the winds peak.

Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties will continue to see
periods of north to east winds (gusts of 15 to 30 mph) through the
week, including areas near the Thomas Fire...resulting in elevated
to near critical fire  weather conditions. In addition, the air mass
will be fairly unstable above the Thomas today and Thursday,
resulting in the potential for large fire plumes which will locally
enhance winds near the fire and cause erratic fire behavior.

Conditions will change Friday afternoon into Friday night, with the
flow becoming more west to northwest. By late Friday night into
Saturday, there is the potential for gusty north winds with
continued low humidities across Santa Barbara county (including the
Thomas Fire area) and the I-5 corridor. For Ventura and Los Angeles
counties, the flow may begin to shift to the northeast again during
the day Saturday, with a greater threat of increased Santa Ana winds
and low humidities late Saturday into Sunday when gusts between
35 and 50 mph will be possible. Critical Red Flag conditions will
once again be possible with the Santa Ana winds over the weekend.


$$

ECC030-141730-
Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch
319 PM PST Wed Dec 13 2017

...RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

...WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH VERY DRY AIR
POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

The extended period of offshore flow will continue into
Friday...focused over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Light
offshore winds and single digit humidities will continue across
interior portions of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through
tonight. Strengthening northeast winds are expected Thursday into
Thursday night, when gusts between 35 and 55 mph can be expected,
resulting in the potential for very rapid fire spread, long range
spotting, and extreme fire behavior. The humidities will remain
incredibly dry with extremely poor overnight recoveries nearly
everywhere tonight and again Thursday night. This will result in
continued critical fire weather conditions into Friday morning,
especially Thursday and Thursday night when the winds peak.

Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties will continue to see
periods of north to east winds (gusts of 15 to 30 mph) through the
week, including areas near the Thomas Fire...resulting in elevated
to near critical fire  weather conditions. In addition, the air mass
will be fairly unstable above the Thomas today and Thursday,
resulting in the potential for large fire plumes which will locally
enhance winds near the fire and cause erratic fire behavior.

Conditions will change Friday afternoon into Friday night, with the
flow becoming more west to northwest. By late Friday night into
Saturday, there is the potential for gusty north winds with
continued low humidities across Santa Barbara county (including the
Thomas Fire area) and the I-5 corridor. For Ventura and Los Angeles
counties, the flow may begin to shift to the northeast again during
the day Saturday, with a greater threat of increased Santa Ana winds
and low humidities late Saturday into Sunday when gusts between
35 and 50 mph will be possible. Critical Red Flag conditions will
once again be possible with the Santa Ana winds over the weekend.


$$


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