Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 201031
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR CREEK LAKE...VA DCR-STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
631 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY...THEN OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL LATE
                    AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT.
WAVE HEIGHT.........0 FEET.
DOMINANT PERIOD.....0 SECONDS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3100-3900 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 3 TO 5
                    MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL.

TIME (EDT)          7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............6   6   6   6   6   8   8   8   15  15  15
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................62  63  65  67  70  73  75  77  78  79  79
RH..................75  78  68  59  51  44  40  36  35  32  32
20 FT WIND DIR......NE  NE  N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......6   7   6   6   6   5   5   6   5   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  5
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.2 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....15  14  13  10  8   7   7   6   5   5   3
LVORI...............3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................22  26  30  30  27  25  23  21  18  16  13
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....15  17  21  23  23  21  20  18  16  14  12
DOMINANT PERIOD (S).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
WAVE HEIGHT (FT)....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    LATE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT WINDS.
WAVE HEIGHT.........0 FEET.
DOMINANT PERIOD.....0 SECONDS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-800 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 2 TO 8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............15  15  15  26  26  26  46  46  46  66  66  66
WEATHER COV.........                        SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................78  75  72  69  65  62  61  60  59  58  58  57
RH..................35  41  48  53  60  70  72  78  80  83  83  83
20 FT WIND DIR......NW  NE  E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD......3   2   2   2   2   3   2   2   2   3   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.2 2.5 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....2   2   2   5   7   8   8   8   7   6   3   3
LVORI...............2   2   2   2   3   3   3   4   5   5   5   5
ADI.................1   1   1   2   3   4   4   4   3   2   2   2
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   20  20  20  40
HAINES INDEX........4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2
VRATE KT-FT/1000....8   5   4   5   5   2   2   2   2   1   1   1
DOMINANT PERIOD (S).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
WAVE HEIGHT (FT)....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH.
WAVE HEIGHT.........0 FEET.
DOMINANT PERIOD.....MISSING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............86  86  86  91  91  91  89  89  89  80  80  80
WEATHER COV.........LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................58  58  58  59  59  59  60  61  63  64  65  65
RH..................83  83  83  80  80  80  81  78  75  73  70  70
20 FT WIND DIR......NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD......3   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5                   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.....E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  N   N   NE  NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....5   7   9   10  10  12  10  9   9   9   9   9
LVORI...............5   5   4   4   4   3   3   4   4   3   3   3
ADI.................4   5   7   11  14  16  16  16  15  16  18  19
CHC OF PCPN (%).....40  40  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
VRATE KT-FT/1000....1   2   4   6   9   12  13  13  12  14  16  18
DOMINANT PERIOD (S).M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
WAVE HEIGHT (FT)....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0



FORECASTER...ALBRIGHT
REQUESTED BY...IRENE FRENTZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150520.BEARC.01/AKQ



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