Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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599
FNUS71 KAKQ 201135
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Blackwater Marslands...USFWS
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
635 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EST on February 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure over eastern Canada builds south across the region
today, then slides offshore tonight and Tuesday. A frontal boundary
stalls north of the area Tuesday night with low pressure tracking
across the region Wednesday. High pressure returns Thursday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North 5 to 8 mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300-800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 14 mph...increasing to 10 to 16 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............15  17  18  19  19  20  20  22
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................54  56  56  57  58  56  55  53
RH..................52  49  47  45  43  45  45  48
20 FT wind dir......N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd......5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10
Mix hgt (kft).......0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.....16  16  15  13  13  12  12  10
LVORI...............2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................12  12  11  11  9   9   9   7
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....4   6   8   9   7   5   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 34.
Max humidity........85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............23  25  26  27  27  28  30  32  34  36  42  47
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................49  46  44  42  41  40  39  38  38  37  36  36
RH..................58  65  68  73  73  76  76  79  79  82  85  85
20 FT wind dir......N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd......3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft).......0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.....8   8   9   10  13  12  12  10  12  13  13  12
LVORI...............3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   5   5
ADI.................4   3   4   5   6   5   5   5   5   5   6   5
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....2   2   2   2   3   3   2   2   2   3   3   3

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............53     53     49     55     59     63
Weather cov.........
Weather type........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov............
Temp................35     38     47     51     53     52
RH..................85     79     58     52     50     54
20 ft wind..........E 2    E 3    SE 4   S 4    S 5    S 5
20 ft wind gust.....5      5      10     10     10     15
Mix hgt (ft)........300    300    300    300    300    300
Transport wind......E 9    E 8    SE 8   SE 8   SE 9   S 10
LVORI...............4      4      3      2      2      2
ADI.................10     8      6      9      7      8
Chc of pcpn (%).....0      0      0      0      0      0
Haines index........4      4      4      4      4      4
VRate kt-ft/1000....2      2      2      2      2      2

$$
Forecaster...RUSNAK
Requested by...Steve Stack
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702467.0/AKQ
.EMAIL Stephen_Stack@fws.gov



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