Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 210833
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Marshyhope...Maryland Forest Service
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
433 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front will approach from the northwest today, pushing
across the burn area late this afternoon/evening. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the front. The front will stall
across North Carolina on Saturday, while low pressure tracks
eastward along the frontal boundary through Monday. This will
result in widespread rain from Saturday through at least Monday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Areas of fog
                    early in the morning. A chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms this afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light ESE winds...becoming west 5 to 10 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms this afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 5000-5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............68  65  63  60  61  61  62  61  60  59
Weather cov.........                CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type........                RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov............                CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp................60  66  71  75  79  81  82  82  81  80
RH..................98  87  73  66  58  54  53  52  52  54
20 FT wind dir......SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd......4   4   4   5   5   6   7   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.....10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft).......0.3 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.3
Transp wind dir.....S   SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
Transp wind spd.....6   6   7   8   10  13  14  14  14  12
LVORI...............6   5   3   3   2   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................6   8   13  18  26  34  41  43  41  36
Chc of pcpn (%).....10  10  10  30  30  30  50  50  50  50
Haines index........3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....1   6   11  19  29  43  56  59  58  53

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). A chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until early
                    morning...then a slight chance of showers after
                    midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light...then becoming north
                    5 to 7 mph after midnight. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms until early
                    morning.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Mixing height.......Decreasing to 300-600 ft AGL early in the evening.
Transport winds.....Northeast 1 to 8 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............61  62  63  64  66  67  68  70  71  72  73  74
Weather cov.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov............CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp................76  72  68  67  65  64  64  63  63  62  60  59
RH..................62  71  84  84  87  90  84  84  81  78  78  78
20 FT wind dir......W   NW  NW  N   NE  E   NE  N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd......4   3   2   2   2   1   2   4   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.....10  5   5   5           5   10  15  10  15  15
Mix hgt (kft).......3.7 2.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....SW  S   S   S   SE  E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.....8   5   2   1   2   3   3   5   6   7   7   7
LVORI...............2   3   6   6   6   7   5   5   4   4   4   4
ADI.................22  3   1   1   1   1   2   3   5   6   6   6
Chc of pcpn (%).....50  50  30  30  30  30  30  30  20  20  20  20
Haines index........4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   2   2   3   3
VRate kt-ft/1000....27  9   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). A chance of
                    showers.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 9 mph.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 2300-2500 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 14 mph...becoming northwest 14 to 17
                    mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............75     79     79     80     80     84
Weather cov.........S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov............
Temp................58     57     56     57     59     60
RH..................77     75     77     75     72     64
20 ft wind..........N 5    N 5    N 6    N 6    N 5    N 5
20 ft wind gust.....15     10     15     15     10     15
Mix hgt (ft)........300    300    1000   1800   2500   2400
Transport wind......NE 6   NE 6   N 10   N 15   N 17   NW 15
LVORI...............4      3      4      3      3      1
ADI.................5      6      14     28     37     33
Chc of pcpn (%).....20     40     40     40     50     50
Haines index........3      2      2      2      2      2
VRate kt-ft/1000....1      1      9      24     37     32

$$
Forecaster...McGEE
Requested by...Gilbert Wagner4
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707317.0/AKQ
.EMAIL gilbert.wagner@maryland.gov


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