Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 091310
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHASE BRIDGE PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
810 AM EST MON JAN 9 2017

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EST ON JANUARY 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (989) 732-9306, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.

STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE GUSTIEST
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING. A SOUTH WIND WILL BE SEEN
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........15 AT IGNITION...MAX 24.
RH..................84 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 71 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH LATE
                    IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1400-3200
                    FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-3800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 21 MPH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR /200 AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT /700/.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3.

TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........93  91  90  90  90  86  88  89  91
WEATHER COV.....NUM SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TSTM COV........
TEMP............15  16  18  19  21  23  24  24  24
RH..............84  84  80  80  77  71  71  71  74
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..9   9   8   8   8   7   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.15  20  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.5 2.3 3.2 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.1 2.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW  SW  SW  SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.17  16  16  17  17  16  14  13  14
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   3
VRATE/100.......2   3   4   5   7   6   5   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING. SNOW IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 22.
RH..................MAX 92 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR TO GOOD (200-400).
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........94  95  97  99  100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
WEATHER COV.....    CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....    SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN
TSTM COV........
TEMP............23  22  23  22  22  22  23  23  24  24  25  26
RH..............77  84  81  84  84  84  84  84  84  88  88  85
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   8   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.15  16  16  17  17  18  20  20  18  16  16  18
HAINES INDEX....3   4   4   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
VRATE/100.......4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SNOW UNTIL LATE
                    AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 37.
RH..................MIN 85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 22 TO 24 MPH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (300).
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........100    99     100    100    100    99
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....SNOW   SNOW   SNOW   SNOW   RNSN   RAIN
TSTM COV........
TEMP............26     27     30     33     36     37
RH..............88     92     88     89     85     85
20 FT WIND......S 7    S 7    S 8    S 8    S 8    S 8
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....1300   1400   1400   1700   1700   1500
TRANSPORT WIND..S 22   S 24   S 23   S 23   SW 23  SW 23
HAINES INDEX....2      2      2      2      2      2
VRATE/100.......3      3      3      4      4      3

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF ZOLTOWSKI
REQUESTED BY...HOLLY MILLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1700156.0/APX



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