Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS73 KAPX 232304
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Mack McKinley 6 & 9...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
704 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Lake breeze front has crossed the burn site, with an
wind shift to the northeast or east. Gustiness has diminished
substantially, and that should continue through the night. This
has also contributed to an area of cumulus clouds, covering
Oscoda and northern Ogemaw Counties. Gradual humidity recovery is
expected tonight, but partial cloud cover will result in less
recovery than last night.


.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Temperature.........Min 33.
RH..................Max 82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 4 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......1600-3500 ft AGL decreasing to 600-1300 ft AGL
                    after midnight.
Transport winds.....Northeast 3 to 7 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor to fair (0-200).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........75  70  65  60  52  45  40  35  35  34  34  34
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............58  58  54  50  46  41  38  36  35  34  34  33
RH..............52  52  52  53  55  65  67  67  64  66  66  69
20 FT wind dir..E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   5   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 3.4 3.3 2.8 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   5   6   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
Haines index....4   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3
VRate/100.......2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   0   0   0

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........Max 62.
RH..................Min 35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 7 mph with
                    occasional gusts up to 16 mph in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-1700 ft AGL increasing to 4200-4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 15 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor to excellent (0-600).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........32     27     19     16     13     20
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............33     37     48     57     60     62
RH..............78     79     58     43     37     35
20 ft wind......E 3    E 4    E 6    E 6    SE 6   E 7
20 ft wind gust.5      5      10     15     15     20
Mix hgt (ft)....600    700    1200   2700   4600   4700
Transport wind..NE 7   E 8    E 9    SE 9   SE 9   SE 14
Haines index....3      2      2      3      4      4
VRate/100.......0      1      1      2      4      6

$$
Forecaster...Jeff Zoltowski
Requested by...Holly Miller
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707537.0/APX


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