Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
000
FNUS75 KBOU 041809
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK HAWK COMMAND...COUNTY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1209 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1155 MDT ON JULY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-1800 THEN
LESS LIKELY AFTER THAT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH...THOUGH THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
STILL SOME CHANCE OF STORMS THIS EVENING THOUGH THEY WILL BE WEAKER...
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GUSTY WINDS. YOU ARE WELCOME TO CALL FOR
UPDATES WITH THUNDERSTORM TIMING IF IT BECOMES AN ISSUE.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1300...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    1400 UNTIL 1500...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........25%.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3 UNTIL 1500...THEN 4.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11300-12300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1300. POOR AFTER 1700.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%) UNTIL 2100...THEN PARTLY
                    CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........74%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    WEST 6-12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.
CWR.................10 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2 UNTIL
                    2400...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9700 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN 7600 FT AGL UNTIL
                    2000...THEN 5400 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    2000-3000 FT AGL UNTIL 2400...THEN 1000-1100 FT
                    AGL UNTIL 0300...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL
                    0400...THEN 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST UP TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BLACK HAWK COMMAND.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

07/04-12 55  6  1 77 26   W  6  6 4 1  NW 18 13635 WNW 16195680     E
07/04-13 62  8  2 77 26 WNW  7  7 4 1 WNW 16 13229  NW 14157015     E
07/04-14 68 15  3 78 26  NW  7  7 3 3 WNW 15 12823  NW 10120365    V
07/04-15 75 26  6 78 27 NNW  8 13 3 4 WNW 13 12417  NW  8 85729   G
07/04-16 72 28  8 77 30   N  6  6 3 4 WNW 12 11519 WNW  6 57002  F
07/04-17 70 30  9 77 32 ENE  3  3 3 4 WNW 10 10621   W  3 31788 P
07/04-18 67 30 10 74 38   CALM  5 3 4 WNW  8  9723   CALM 10087 P
07/04-19 64 30  9 71 42 WSW  2  5 3 4 WNW  7  7554 WSW  5 27632 P
07/04-20 61 30  8 69 47 WSW  6  5 3 4   W  6  5385  SW  7 33812 P
07/04-21 58 29  5 64 54 WSW  8  6 3 3   W  5  3217 SSW 10 28624 P
07/04-22 53 16  3 61 60 WSW  8  6 3 3   W  5  2503 SSW 10 22317 P
07/04-23 47 10  2 58 67 WSW  8  7 3 2 WSW  5  1790  SW 10 15987 P
07/05-00 42  7  1 57 69  SW  7  7 3 1 WSW  5  1076 WSW 10  9632 P
07/05-01 43  5  1 55 72 WSW  8 13 3 1 WSW  6  1033 WSW 10  8925 P
07/05-02 43  2  0 54 74   W  9 14 3 1  SW  6   989   W  9  8245 P
07/05-03 44  2  0 53 74   W  9 15 3 1  SW  7   946   W  9  7591 P
07/05-04 47  4  1 53 74   W  9 15 3 1 SSW  6   955   W  9  7662 P
07/05-05 52  4  1 52 74   W  9 14 3 1   S  5   965   W  9  7733 P
07/05-06 55 19  3 52 69   W  8 13 3 2   S  3   974 WNW  9  7804 P
07/05-07 55 19  3 57 67   W  8 14 3 2 SSE  3  2097 WNW  8 14690 P
07/05-08 55 19  3 60 61   W  8 14 3 2  SE  5  3219 WNW  7 19323 P
07/05-09 55 19  3 64 54 WNW  8 13 3 2  SE  5  4341  NW  6 22361 P
07/05-10 55 19  3 67 47 WNW  7  7 3 2  SE  6  6087   N  5 23715 P
07/05-11 55 19  3 70 41  NW  6  6 2 2  SE  6  7833 ENE  3 20686 P
07/05-12 70 40 18 72 38  NW  5  5 2 3  SE  7  9580   CALM 13274 P
07/05-13 70 40 18 74 37  NW  6  6 2 3 SSE  7  9335  SE  2 18327 P
07/05-14 70 40 18 75 39 WNW  8  8 2 3 SSE  7  9091 SSW  3 23098 P
07/05-15 78 40 18 75 41   W  9 15 2 3   S  8  8846  SW  3 27587 P
07/05-16 78 40 18 74 44   W  9 15 2 3   S 10  8392 WSW  6 45301  F
07/05-17 78 40 18 73 47 WNW  9 15 2 3  SW 14  7937   W  9 60942   G
07/05-18 92 48 24 71 51 WNW  9 15 2 4 WSW 17  7483   W 12 74511   G
07/05-19 92 48 24 68 57 WNW  9 15 2 4   W 17  6759   W 13 76605   G
07/05-20 92 48 24 65 63 WNW  9 15 2 4   W 18  6036   W 15 76707   G
07/05-21 92 48 24 62 70 WNW  9 15 2 4   W 20  5312   W 16 74819   G
07/05-22 92 48 24 59 77 WNW  8 14 2 4 WNW 18  4485   W 20 75781   G
07/05-23 92 48 24 56 85 WNW  8  8 2 4  NW 17  3658 WNW 23 72090   G
07/06-00100 37 15 53 93 WNW  7  7 2 4  NW 15  2830 WNW 26 63746   G
07/06-01100 37 15 51 97 WNW  7  7 2 4  NW 18  2593 WNW 25 57852  F
07/06-02100 37 15 50 98 WNW  8 13 2 4  NW 22  2355 WNW 25 52058  F
07/06-03100 37 15 50 96 WNW  8 13 2 4  NW 24  2118 WNW 25 46363  F
07/06-04100 37 15 50 95  NW  7  7 2 4  NW 23  2137 WNW 23 42217  F
07/06-05100 37 15 51 92 NNW  6  6 2 4  NW 22  2156  NW 21 37990 P
07/06-06 74 34 13 52 89   N  5  5 2 2  NW 21  2175  NW 17 33681 P
07/06-07 74 34 13 54 86   N  5  5 2 2  NW 21  3154 NNW 15 41670  F
07/06-08 74 34 13 56 84 NNE  6  6 2 2  NW 21  4134 NNW 13 45197  F
07/06-09 74 34 13 58 80  NE  6  6 2 2 WNW 21  5113   N 10 44262  F
07/06-10 74 34 13 60 75  NE  6  6 2 2 WNW 18  5203   N  8 37788 P
07/06-11 74 34 13 62 70 ENE  5  5 2 2 WNW 17  5292   N  7 31066 P
07/06-12 96 48 24 63 67 ENE  5  5 2 3 WNW 15  5381   N  5 24095 P
07/06-13 96 48 24 64 66 ENE  5  5 2 3 WNW 14  5415   N  5 22781 P
07/06-14 96 48 24 64 67 ENE  5  5 2 3 WNW 13  5449   N  5 21448 P
07/06-15 96 48 24 64 67   E  5  5 2 3 WNW 12  5483   N  5 20096 P
07/06-16 96 48 24 63 69   E  5  5 2 3 WNW 13  5537   N  3 15998 P
07/06-17 96 48 24 62 71   E  3  3 2 3  NW 14  5590 NNW  2 11818 P
07/06-18 77 28  8 62 70 ESE  3  3 2 2  NW 14  5643   CALM  7556 P
07/06-19 77 28  8 61 72 ESE  3  3 2 2 NNW 14  5452 NNW  2  8705 P
07/06-20 77 28  8 60 73  SE  3  3 2 2   N 13  5261   N  2  9757 P
07/06-21 77 28  8 60 72 SSE  3  3 2 2 NNE 13  5070 NNE  2 10709 P
07/06-22 77 28  8 59 73 SSE  3  3 2 2 NNE 10  4837  NE  3 12331 P
07/06-23 77 28  8 57 77 SSE  3  3 2 2 NNE  8  4604 ESE  3 13749 P
07/07-00 54 17  3 55 80 SSE  3  3 2 3 NNE  5  4371  SE  3 14963 P
07/07-01 54 17  3 52 87   S  3  3 2 3   N  5  3697  SE  5 13980 P
07/07-02 54 17  3 49 95   S  3  3 2 3   W  3  3023 SSE  5 12513 P
07/07-03 54 17  3 47100   S  3  3 2 3  SW  2  2348 SSE  5 10562 P
07/07-04 54 17  3 45100   S  3  3 2 3  SW  3  2368 SSE  6 12065 P
07/07-05 54 17  3 45100   S  3  3 2 3 WSW  5  2388 SSE  7 13591 P
07/07-06 48 23  5 46100   S  3  3 2 3   W  5  2408   S  7 15142 P
07/07-07 48 23  5 48 91   S  3  3   3
07/07-08 48 23  5 52 77   S  5  5   3
07/07-09 48 23  5 55 69   S  5  5   3
07/07-10 48 23  5 59 60   S  5  5   3
07/07-11 48 23  5 63 53 SSE  5  5   3
07/07-12 49 30  9 66 48 SSE  5  5   4
07/07-13 49 30  9 67 48 SSE  5  5   4
07/07-14 49 30  9 68 47   S  5  5   4
07/07-15 49 30  9 68 49   S  5  5   4
07/07-16 49 30  9 67 52   S  5  5   4
07/07-17 49 30  9 66 55   S  3  3   4
07/07-18 44 30  9 64 60   S  3  3   4

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD
REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150704.BLACK.01/BOU


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.