Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FNUS73 KDMX 211250
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for C4/5 2017...Iowa Army National Guard
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
650 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CST on February 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Fog across the region early today will give way to afternoon
breezy and very warm conditions. With less rainfall over the west
and increased winds/warmth today...elevated fire conditions will
be likely west of Interstate 35 from north central Iowa toward
southwest areas where relative humidity will drop to 30 to 35
percent this afternoon for several hours and winds will gust to 15
to 25 mph at times today. Elsewhere over the east wetting rainfall
of .25 to 1.0 inch and lesser winds this afternoon will mitigate
the fire danger somewhat today...though on Wednesday warm temperatures
will again return but winds will not be as brisk.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 12 mph late
                    in the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 12 mph late
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......300-2000 ft AGL increasing to 2800-4600 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon, then decreasing to 2600 ft
                    AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 1 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........20  7   7   7   6   7   7   8   6   4
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............39  42  47  51  56  60  63  66  69  66
RH..............96  86  76  68  59  53  46  38  33  37
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT WIND SPD..3   3   3   5   6   7   8   10  12  10
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5               10
EYE LVL WND DIR.W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
EYE LVL WND SPD.2   2   2   3   4   4   5   6   7   6
EYE LVL WND GST.5   5   5               10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.6 3.6 2.6
MIXNG WIND DIR..W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
MIXNG WIND SPD..1   1   2   3   6   8   9   10  9   8
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 7 to 9 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......300-1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 8 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........2      1      2      4      15     18
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............62     57     53     49     47     45
RH..............44     53     61     68     71     73
20 FT WIND......S 9    SW 8   SW 8   SW 9   SW 8   SW 8
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     10     10
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 5    SW 5   SW 5   SW 5   SW 5   SW 5
EYE LVL WND GST.10     10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....1600   700    300    300    300    300
MIXNG WIND......S 7    S 6    S 7    S 8    SW 7   SW 7
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      5      5

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Eye level winds.....West winds 6 to 13 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL increasing to 1100-2900 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 12 mph increasing to southwest 16 to
                    23 mph in the afternoon, then decreasing to
                    around 12 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........13        11        15        4
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............44        51        66        70
RH..............79        66        42        38
20 FT WIND......S 6       SW 7      SW 13G20  W 12G15
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 4G5     SW 4G5    SW 8G20   W 7G15
MIX HGT (FT)....300       300       1500      2900
MIXNG WIND......S 6       S 5       S 12      SW 23
HAINES INDEX....5         5         4         5

$$
Forecaster...Vachalek
Requested by...andy roby
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702542.0/DMX
.EMAIL andy.roby@iowa.gov



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