Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FNUS74 KEWX 291229
FWSEWX

Spot Forecast for Swift Unit 1...Texas A&M Forest Service
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
729 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on June 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Low clouds and areas of patchy fog is ongoing in and near the burn
site this morning with nearly 100 percent humidity values. These
values will decrease through the 10am ignition time as low clouds
slowly mix out. smoke dispersion may be less than ideal initially
this morning but will improve through the late morning and afternoon
as mixing and winds increase. Winds will be near calm to variable
initially and then become more south to southeasterly through the
late morning and afternoon. No rain is expected today as clouds
further decrease through the afternoon. Another round of low clouds
and patchy fog will be possible again Friday morning with near
similar wind and cloud mix-out patterns.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1300-3000 ft AGL increasing to 7100-7300 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........52  48  45  41  38  36  33  30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............81  84  86  89  91  93  94  94
RH..............79  72  68  59  54  49  47  47
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   6   6   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.            10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.            10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 3.0 5.2 6.2 6.5 7.1 7.3 7.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   9   10  12  13  13  14  15
Haines index....2   3   3   3   3   3   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 77.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 8 to 9 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......5500-6800 ft AGL decreasing to 1400-2300 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 23 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........27        11        24        48
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............93        86        80        79
RH..............51        65        82        88
20 FT wind......S 8G15    S 9G15    S 9G15    S 9G15
Eye level wind..S 5G15    S 5G15    S 5G15    S 5G15
Mix hgt (ft)....6800      3400      1600      2100
Transport wind..S 15      S 18      S 23      S 22
Haines index....4         4         3         3

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 8 to 13 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......1900-3800 ft AGL increasing to 4400-6200 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 23 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........61        65        53        41
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............77        81        88        93
RH..............94        82        66        52
20 FT wind......S 7G10    S 10G15   S 11G15   S 12G20
Eye level wind..S 4G10    S 6G15    S 7G15    S 7G20
Mix hgt (ft)....2000      3800      4700      5900
Transport wind..S 20      S 20      S 21      S 23
Haines index....4         4         3         3

$$
Forecaster...Allen
Requested by...Steven Moore
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1711843.0/EWX
.EMAIL smoore@tfs.tamu.edu


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