Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FNUS75 KGJT 230331
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR OCHO...DURANGO DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
931 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1600 MDT ON JULY 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

UPDATED FOR INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS
EVENING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA ROTATES INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY
AS DAYTIME HEATING PROVIDES INCREASED INSTABILITY.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GENERALLY POOR...BUT BETTER MIXING NEAR STORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL BY MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH
                    LATE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 3-5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    8-12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0930...THEN BECOMING VERY GOOD IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO
                    11900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 13 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
                    THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1930...THEN BECOMING POOR
                    BY SUNSET. BETTER MIXING NEAR STORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1600 FT AGL AFTER
                    SUNSET.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 MPH.


$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...JEFF
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140722.OCHO_.01/GJT



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