Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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079
FNUS72 KILM 241221
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Shipman Rx burn try #3...NCFS
National Weather Service WILMINGTON NC
821 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on March 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
A warmup begins today as high pressure moves off the coast.
A slowly approaching low pressure system from the west will
allow for increasing rain chances on Sunday.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is favorable.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph.
Max Mixing Hgt......5400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 7 mph...becoming south 10 to 12 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Max Vent Rate.......62674 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........9.
Max ADI.............49.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........13  13  14  14  15  14  14  14  13
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............47  56  64  68  69  69  69  69  68
RH..............81  60  47  42  42  43  44  46  48
CHC Pcpn (%)....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
20 FT wind dir..E   E   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.        10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 2.9 4.2 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.3 4.8
Trans Wnd Dir...E   SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Trans Wnd Spd...7   9   10  12  10  10  12  12  12
Haines Index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VR MPH-FT*1000..10  27  44  56  54  55  63  61  55
Stability.......C   C   C   C   C   C   C   C   C
LVORI...........4   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............13  29  40  47  44  44  49  49  47
Aparnt Tmp (F)..44  56  64  68  69  69  69  69  68
Sfc pres (in)...044 044 044 044 044 038 038 038 038

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light and variable.
Min Mixing Hgt......0 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 10 mph.
Min Vent Rate.......0 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........7.
Min ADI.............1.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........13     12     16     19     23     30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............66     61     58     56     54     54
RH..............52     65     72     79     85     88
CHC Pcpn (%)....0      0      0      0      0      0
20 ft wind......S 6    S 5    S 4    S 3    S 3    S 3
20 ft wind gust.10            5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....3400   300    BLW100 200    300    300
Transport wind..S 10   S 6    S 5    S 3    S 3    S 3
Haines Index....5      4      4      4      4      4
VR MPH-FT*1000..35     2      0      1      1      1
Stability.......C      F      F      G      G      G
LVORI...........1      3      3      4      5      6
ADI.............35     3      2      2      2      2
Aparnt Tmp (F)..66     61     58     56     54     54
Sfc pres (in)...30.38  30.34  30.34  30.34  30.31  30.31

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming south 5 to
                    6 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Max Mixing Hgt......5100 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 1 to 6 mph...increasing to 12 to 16 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Max Vent Rate.......82225 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........10.
Max ADI.............67.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........38     45     41     41     46     46
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............51     50     62     70     73     73
RH..............99     100    71     55     49     47
CHC Pcpn (%)....0      10     10     10     10     10
20 ft wind......S 2    S 2    S 5    S 6    S 6    S 6
20 ft wind gust.                     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100 300    3300   5100   4900   4700
Transport wind..S 1    S 2    S 12   S 16   S 13   S 13
Haines Index....4      4      4      4      3      3
VR MPH-FT*1000..0      1      38     82     62     60
Stability.......G      B      C      C      C      C
LVORI...........10     9      3      1      1      1
ADI.............1      2      39     67     52     51
Aparnt Tmp (F)..51     50     62     70     73     73
Sfc pres (in)...30.31  30.29  30.29  30.29  30.23  30.23

$$
Forecaster...Pfaff
Requested by...Michael Rhodes
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705127.0/ILM
.EMAIL d8opsrm@ncagr.gov



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