Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FNUS72 KILM 291428
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR SLEEPY CREEK...NC FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
928 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1230 EST ON JANUARY 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY...AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE DURING THE FRIDAY PRE-DAWN HOURS.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. INCREASING CHANCES
FOR LIQUID PCPN AND MILDER TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD
OF NEXT WEEK.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.

FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...NONE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (40-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MIN HUMIDITY........29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO
                    6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 1900-2900 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 7 TO 12 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MAX ADI.............30.
MAX LVORI...........6.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (0-34155 MPH-FT).

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............12     20     31     42     51     57
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................23     26     37     45     50     50
RH..................85     90     49     33     29     33
20 FT WIND..........NE 0   E 1    SE 2   S 4    S 5    S 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....              5      10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........200    500    1200   2200   2900   2600
TRANSPORT WIND......N 0    S 2    S 7    S 10   S 12   S 10
LVORI...............6      4      2      2      2      2
ADI.................2      1      2      17     28     28
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...0      1      8      24     34     27

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39.
MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 8 MPH.
MAX ADI.............15.
MAX LVORI...........6.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (459 MPH-FT).

TIME (EST)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............64     68     71     73     72     68
WEATHER COV.........                     S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................48     45     43     43     42     41
RH..................43     55     67     76     82     84
20 FT WIND..........S 5    S 5    SW 5   SW 5   SW 5   W 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     10     10     10     15
MIX HGT (FT)........1000   100    300    300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......S 8    S 7    SW 7   SW 8   SW 8   W 7
LVORI...............2      2      3      4      6      4
ADI.................15     5      5      9      12     12
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...8      0      2      2      2      2

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4100-5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 16 MPH...INCREASING TO 31 TO 33
                    MPH.
MAX ADI.............100.
MAX LVORI...........6.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (229-33005 MPH-FT)...INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (128569 MPH-FT).

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............65     50     31     12     3      2
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................41     41     45     49     51     51
RH..................82     75     56     44     37     35
20 FT WIND..........W 6    NW 6   NW 9   NW 10  NW 10  NW 9
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     20     20     20     20
MIX HGT (FT)........BLW100 1000   3000   3800   4700   5100
TRANSPORT WIND......W 8    NW 13  NW 21  NW 29  NW 33  NW 33
LVORI...............6      4      1      2      2      1
ADI.................16     38     68     70     84     100
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...0      13     61     108    155    171

$$
FORECASTER...COLBY
REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL MALCOLM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150128.SLEEP.01/ILM







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