Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FNUS73 KJKL 201350
FWSJKL

Spot Forecast for curd garden 4...USFS
National Weather Service Jackson, KY
850 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on February 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Much warmer temperatures will continue to
affect Kentucky over the next several days. We will remain dry
until later Wednesday, followed by multiple shots of
showers and possible thunderstorms to round out the week. 1-3
inches of rain possible for the area through Sunday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........67 at ignition...Max 80.
RH..................84 percent at ignition...Min 52 percent.
Dewpoint............57 increasing to 60 late at night, then
                    decreasing to 57 in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming south 6 to 12 mph, with
                    gusts of 20 to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL at ignition...increasing to
                    4400 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 24 mph increasing to 22 to 31 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Fair /22600 knot-ft/ at ignition...increasing
                    to excellent (75300-97600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................22 increasing, then increasing to 48 late in
                    the morning, increasing 100 late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.

TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........18  23  30  35  36  38  40  42  41
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Cch of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............67  68  69  72  72  74  75  76  76
Dewpoint........62  60  61  59  56  57  58  58  58
RH..............84  76  76  64  57  55  55  54  54
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   7   6   7   8   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.15  20  20  20  20  25  20  15  15
Ridge wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Ridge wind spd..10  10  15  10  15  15  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.3 1.8 2.7 3.2 3.5 4.1 4.4 3.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SW  SW  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.18  21  24  28  31  29  28  25  22
LVORI...........4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............34  41  48  93  81  81  104 95  84
Haines index....3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
VRate kt-ft/100023  28  44  76  97  98  96  90  75

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 60.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Dewpoint............59.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming south 5 to 6 mph
                    late.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL decreasing to 100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair to good (24300-55500 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................11.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........40     40     42     52     61     70
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Cch of pcpn (%).0      0      0      10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............75     68     66     64     62     61
Dewpoint........58     58     59     59     60     61
RH..............55     70     78     84     93     100
20 ft wind......S 5    S 3    S 2    S 2    S 3    S 5
20 ft wind gust.10     5      5      5      5      10
Ridgetop wind...S 10   S 5    S 5    S 5    S 5    S 10
Mix hgt (ft)....2900   100    100    100    100    100
Transport wind..S 20   S 15   S 14   S 14   S 15   S 17
LVORI...........2      3      4      4      5      5
ADI.............10     9      8      8      13     14
Haines index....2      2      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/100056     40     28     27     27     24

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the
                    morning. Isolated thunderstorms through the
                    day. Numerous showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1100, then 2.
Temperature.........Max 76.
RH..................Min 56 percent.
Dewpoint............62 decreasing to 59 late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 9 mph with gusts to around
                    20 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the morning.
Mixing height.......100-1700 ft AGL increasing to 3300-4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 21 to 29 mph increasing to 22 to 31
                    mph early in the afternoon, then decreasing to
                    12 to 17 mph late in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Fair to good (25600-59400 knot-ft) increasing
                    to excellent (86200 knot-ft) late in the
                    morning, then increasing to excellent (134500-
                    162100 knot-ft) early in the afternoon,
                    decreasing to good to excellent (59900-
                    90300 knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................37 increasing to 54 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 73 late in the morning increasing
                    to 99 early in the afternoon, decreasing to
                    29 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........71        68        78        84
Weather cov.....ISOLTD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD    NUMRUS
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                    ISOLTD    ISOLTD
Cch of pcpn (%).20        30        50        70
LAL.............1         1         2         2
Temp............62        69        76        75
Dewpoint........62        63        61        60
RH..............100       93        58        60
20 FT wind......S 4G5     S 5G10    SW 6G15   W 5G10
Ridgetop wind...S 5       S 10      SW 10     W 10
Mix hgt (ft)....100       1700      3900      4200
Transport wind..S 21      SW 24     SW 29     SW 22
LVORI...........4         4         1         1
ADI.............33        50        95        67
Haines index....3         3         3         3
VRate kt-ft/100026        49        138       90

$$
Forecaster...HAL
Requested by...Leif Meadows
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1802188.0/JKL
.EMAIL leifmeadows@fs.fed.us


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