Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FNUS73 KJKL 251350
FWSJKL

Spot Forecast for London Ranger Station RX...USDA FS
National Weather Service Jackson, KY
950 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on March 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A slow moving low pressure system will pass by to our
northwest this weekend. The flow around the system will bring southerly
winds and mild temperatures. Gusts will reach around 20 mph today.
Showers will arrive by around dawn on Sunday, with thunderstorms
also possible. No change in air mass will occur with the system`s
departure, so it will continue mild.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny, then increasing clouds late.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........67 at ignition...Max 77.
RH..................47 percent at ignition...Min 34 percent.
Dewpoint............Around 46.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 8 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    south 7 to 11 mph. Gusts around 20 mph,
                    especially through midday.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2600 to 4700
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 20 mph at ignition, otherwise south 20 to 25
                    mph.
Vent Rate...........Good /35100 knot-ft/ at ignition. Otherwise,
                    good to excellent (52900-98800 knot-ft) .
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................49 at ignition, otherwise 65 to 83 in the
                    afternoon...max 83.
Haines Index........3 at ignition, otherwise 3 to to 4 or very low
                    to low potential for large plume dominated fire
                    growth...max 4.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........33  36  44  51  59  61  64  66
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Cch of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............67  70  73  74  75  75  76  76
Dewpoint........46  47  47  48  48  47  47  47
RH..............47  44  40  40  38  37  36  36
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   9   9   9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.16  19  22  20  18  20  20  20
Ridge wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Ridge wind spd..10  10  10  15  15  15  15  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 2.6 3.2 4.2 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.20  23  25  25  24  23  22  20
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............49  68  83  72  72  69  65  78
Haines index....3   3   3   3   4   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/100035  53  70  92  99  94  89  79

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers
                    in the evening. A chance of rain showers
                    overnight, then rain showers likely and a
                    slight chance of thunderstorms late.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0400, then 2.
Temperature.........Min 55.
RH..................Max 87 percent.
Dewpoint............Around 49.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late at night.
Mixing height.......2100-4000 ft AGL in the evening, decreasing to
                    600-1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 16 mph, becoming southeast 8 to 15
                    mph after 0100.
Vent Rate...........Good (56400 knot-ft) in the evening decreasing to
                    poor (3900-10600 knot-ft) by late in the
                    evening.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................60 decreasing to 8.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........65     65     69     74     80     89
Weather cov.....              S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                                   S CHC
Cch of pcpn (%).10     10     20     30     40     60
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      2
Temp............73     66     61     58     57     56
Dewpoint........47     48     48     48     48     50
RH..............40     52     62     69     72     80
20 ft wind......S 6    S 4    S 4    SE 4   SE 4   S 5
20 ft wind gust.15     10     10     10     10     10
Ridgetop wind...S 10   S 5    S 5    SE 5   SE 5   S 5
Mix hgt (ft)....4000   2100   1000   600    600    800
Transport wind..S 16   S 10   S 9    S 8    SE 8   SE 14
LVORI...........1      2      3      3      4      4
ADI.............60     7      6      5      5      9
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/100056     19     8      5      4      9

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain showers and a chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................2 until 0800, then 3.
Temperature.........Max 69.
RH..................Min 57 percent.
Dewpoint............Around 53.
Wind (20 ft)........South 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    mainly between 0900 and 1300. Gusty and
                    erratic winds in and near any thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......800-1400 ft AGL in the morning, becoming
                    1600-3600 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 24 mph becoming southwest 23
                    to 26 mph around 1600.
Vent Rate...........Poor early (10800 knot-ft) becoming
                    good to excellent (46700-82400 knot-ft)
                    in the afternoon.
LVORI...............5 early, decreasing to 1 to 3.
ADI.................10-14 early increasing to 41 to 67 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........96        91        87        83
Weather cov.....LIKELY    DEFNTE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC     CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Cch of pcpn (%).70        90        90        90
LAL.............2         3         3         3
Temp............55        58        65        68
Dewpoint........51        52        54        54
RH..............86        80        68        61
20 FT wind......S 5G10    S 5G15    S 6G20    S 7G20
Ridgetop wind...S 5       S 10      S 10      S 15
Mix hgt (ft)....800       1000      1600      2800
Transport wind..S 15      S 17      S 24      S 24
LVORI...........5         3         1         1
ADI.............10        22        41        56
Haines index....3         3         3         3
VRate kt-ft/100011        15        33        59

$$
Forecaster...JP
Requested by...Aaron Strobel
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705190.0/JKL
.EMAIL aaronpstrobel@fs.fed.us



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