Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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376
FNUS76 KLOX 170247
FWSLOX

Spot Forecast for CREEK...ANF
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
647 PM PST Sat Dec 16 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1900 PST on December 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...An upper level ridge will build into the western Great
Basin tonight into Sunday, combined with strong surface high
pressure in the same location. This will bring increasing offshore
winds to much of Los Angeles County tonight into Sunday. Strong
northeast winds are likely over the Creek Burn Area tonight through
Sunday morning. Local high- resolution models show rapidly
increasing winds this evening, with an area of strong winds
developing near and to the northwest of the Creek Burn. Wind gusts up
to 50 mph are forecast over the surrounding ridges, and isolated
stronger gusts to 55 mph may be possible. At the same time, warming
and drying will occur overnight. The highest humidities will be this
evening, with a rapid drop in humidity overnight into Sunday.
Afternoon minimums will be in the lower to mid teens both Sunday and
Monday, with poor recoveries Sunday night. The offshore flow will
weaken late Sunday evening, with lighter offshore flow into Monday
morning, and light onshore flow by Monday afternoon.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....53-55.
Max humidity........70-75 percent this evening, falling to 25-30
                    percent overnight.
Eye level winds.....North to northeast winds 4 to 8 mph with gusts
                    to 10 mph increasing to 8 to 15 mph with gusts
                    to 18 mph after midnight.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North to northeast winds 8 to 15 mph with gusts
                    to 20 mph through 2000 hrs this evening, then
                    increasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35
                    mph after midnight.
 Ridgetop...........North to northeast winds increasing to 20 to
                    30 mph with gusts to 40 mph by late in the
                    evening. Isolated gusts to 50 mph possible after
                    midnight.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL decreasing to 2800 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....Northeast 25 to 40 mph.


.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....63-65.
Min humidity........10-13 percent.
Eye level winds.....North to northeast winds 9 to 14 mph with gusts to
                    around 22 mph in the morning, subsiding to 4 to 8
                    mph with gusts to 13 mph in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North to northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to
                    40 mph in the morning subsiding to 8 to 15 mph
                    with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........North to northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to
                    50 mph subsiding to 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL increasing to 4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 40 mph decreasing to 25 mph in the
                    afternoon.


.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........22-28 percent.
Eye level winds.....North to northeast winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15
                    mph decreasing to 5 to 8 mph with gusts to 10 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North to northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to
                    30 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20
                    mph.
 Ridgetop...........North to northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to
                    35 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25
                    mph overnight.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL decreasing to 1400 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 20 mph decreasing to 10 mph.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........12-17 percent.
Eye level winds.....North to northeast winds 4 to 8 mph with gusts to
                    around 10 mph in the morning, becoming light and variable
                    in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northeast winds 8 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    20 mph in the morning becoming variable 3 to 6 mph in
                    the afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........North to northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    25 mph becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL increasing to 4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 10 mph becoming southwest up to 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...SMITH
Requested by...Kristen Allison
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1719849.5/LOX
.EMAIL kristenallison@fs.fed.us



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