Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FNUS72 KMFL 300954
FWSMFL

Spot Forecast for COLLIER INCIDENT REQUEST...COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
National Weather Service Miami FL
554 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 0600 EDT on April 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (305) 229-4522, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure to the north of the region will maintain warm weather today.
However, more cloudiness could prevent temps from going as high as they
did yesterday. That said given the strong high and that it does not
take much insolation there is still a good chance temps could get up
to near record again today. This coupled with the potential for mixing
means there is a concern for red flag conditions to be met again today
even when not forecast. Therefore, decided to keep the fire weather
watch in effect for this afternoon. Something we will monitor carefully.
A brief light rain shower cannot be ruled out today but is far more
likely to remain dry. Moderate to strong transport winds will result
in very good dispersion conditions once again. Given strong east
southeast winds no sea breeze is expected.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 14 mph.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......300-1400 ft AGL...increasing to 4600-5100 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 12 mph...increasing to southeast 17
                    to 23 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Dispersion index....7...increasing to 61.
LVORI...............5.
Ceiling (kft).......23912...increasing to 25000 in the
                    morning,...then decreasing to 9000...decreasing
                    to 6312 early...decreasing to 6102...decreasing
                    to 5103 early in the afternoon...increasing to
                    25000.

Time (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........72     72     72     54     36     36
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............72     72     81     86     88     88
RH..............93     93     67     55     48     50
20 ft wind......E 4    E 5    E 8    SE 9   SE 9   SE 10
20 ft wind gust.5             15     15     15     15
20 ft wind dir..090    090    110    120    120    120
MIX HGT (FT)....300    300    2500   4100   5100   5100
MIXNG WIND......E 6    E 7    E 17   SE 23  SE 21  SE 20
Dispersion idx..5      8      39     64     64     60
LVORI...........7      6      2      1      1      1
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 72.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 13 mph...becoming light.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......3100-4100 ft AGL...decreasing to 300-2100 ft
                    AGL until just after midnight.
Transport winds.....East 13 to 22 mph...decreasing to 5 to 8 mph
                    around midnight.
Dispersion index....56...decreasing to 8.
LVORI...............4.
Ceiling (kft).......24981.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers through early afternoon. A chance of
                    showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming south 5 to 9 mph. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1400,...then 2.
Mixing height.......300-1500 ft AGL...increasing to 4400-5000 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph...becoming south 12 to 18
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Dispersion index....5...increasing to 21 late in the
                    morning,...then increasing to 45...increasing
                    to 62 early...decreasing to 49...decreasing to
                    41 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
Ceiling (kft).......25000...decreasing to 12000.

$$
Forecaster...Santos
Requested by...RICK ZYVOLOSKI
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1708025.1/MFL


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