Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FNUS76 KMFR 282138
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR STOUTS CREEK...ODF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
238 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1415 PDT ON AUGUST 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO BRING WETTING RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS TO THE INCIDENT SATURDAY MORNING...

...WIND AND WEIGHT OF RAINFALL TO INCREASE RISK OF FALLING DEBRIS
OVER THE INCIDENT SATURDAY..

.DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TO THE INCIDENT. RAIN AND WIND WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON,
BUT IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND MORE HUMID. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN TO THE INCIDENT SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MUCH COOLER AND MORE HUMID THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS AND THE WEIGHT OF RAINFALL MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF
FALLING DEBRIS ON THE INCIDENT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY
AND SOAKING (NOT INTENSE LIKE IN THUNDERSTORMS), SO DEBRIS FLOW
AND FLOODING ON THE BURN SCARS IS NOT A MAJOR CONCERN, BUT IT IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS AFTER NOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-70.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH...HIGHEST OVER EXPOSED RIDGES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL...RISING TO 5000 FEET AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 40-60 MPH IN THE MORNING...LOWERING TO
                    20-30 BY AFTERNOON.
CWR.................100 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE
                    MORNING...LOWERING TO 10-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXPOSED RIDGES.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-100 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2-4 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 1000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-66.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST-SOUTHWEST 3-6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL RISING TO 4000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 10-20 MPH.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST-SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...WRIGHT
REQUESTED BY...DUANE WEIS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150828.STOUT.01/MFR



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