Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FNUS73 KMQT 300935
FWSMQT

SPOT FORECAST FOR DIVERSION NORTH...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
535 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON JULY 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SITE THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...UP TO 30 MPH...BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARDS EVENING. A SUNNY START TO THE DAY WILL
PROMOTE MIXING INTO DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE AND ALLOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT. EXPECT CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR TOWARDS MID DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING CREATES
SCATTERED DAYTIME CUMULUS AROUND 6-7 THOUSAND FEET THROUGH PEAK
HEATING. WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
STABILIZING EFFECT OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO KEEP THE CLOUDS MORE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SITE. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SITE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAIN IS LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68 AT IGNITION...MAX 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 40 PERCENT.
33-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS WEST AT 17 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    WEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH BY LATE MORNING...THEN
                    DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS WEST AT 13 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    WEST WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST 12 TO 16 MPH BY LATE MORNING...THEN
                    DECREASING TO 8 TO 12 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........4...OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21 TO 40 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 20
                    TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (437) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (936) AT
                    IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1764) IN THE
                    AFTERNOON DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (1038)
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3200-4700 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 5500-6400 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2500-4300 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........27     36     39     46     47
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............68     72     75     77     77
RH..............66     55     45     41     41
33-FOOT WIND....W 17   NW 23  NW 21  NW 21  NW 15
20-FOOT WIND....W 14   NW 18  NW 17  NW 17  NW 12
WIND GUST.......28     30     26     26     23
VINDX KT-FT/100.936    1674   1758   1640   1038
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 33  NW 35  NW 32  NW 30  NW 26
MIX HGT (FT)....3200   5500   6200   6300   4300
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 59.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 90 PERCENT.
33-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 4 TO 9 MPH THROUGH LATE EVENING.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 7 MPH THROUGH LATE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 16 TO 35 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (0).
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1000 FT AGL.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM
SKY (%).........40     38     35     33     37     40
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............73     66     61     60     59     59
RH..............49     65     80     82     88     90
33-FOOT WIND....W 9    W 9    SW 9   W 9    W 9    W 9
20-FOOT WIND....W 7    W 7    SW 7   W 7    W 7    W 7
WIND GUST.......13     13
VINDX KT-FT/100.360    116    25     0      35     0
TRANSPORT WIND..W 24   W 26   W 29   NW 30  NW 25  NW 22
MIX HGT (FT)....1000   200    BLW100 BLW100 200    BLW100
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20
                    PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 40 PERCENT.
33-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 23 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 16 TO 34 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (449) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (2052).
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300 FT AGL THROUGH
                    MID MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 7300-8800 FT
                    AGL BY MID AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 6600 FT AGL
                    LATE.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....NONE TO 0.02 INCHES.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........44     45     46     47     48     49
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............63     70     76     77     77     75
RH..............83     61     47     42     40     44
33-FOOT WIND....W 11   W 11   NW 15  NW 16  NW 16  NW 16
20-FOOT WIND....W 9    W 9    NW 12  NW 13  NW 13  NW 13
WIND GUST.......16     16     20     22     22     23
VINDX KT-FT/100.45     1060   1937   2052   1932   1759
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 21  NW 24  NW 26  NW 26  NW 26  NW 28
MIX HGT (FT)....300    5000   8400   8800   8300   7300
LAL.............2      2      2      2      2      2
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      4      4      4

$$
FORECASTER...SRF
REQUESTED BY...GARY LINDSAY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150730.DIVER.01/MQT


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