Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FNUS71 KOKX 311616
FWSOKX

SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST 38TH STREET CRANE COLLAPSE...NYCEM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1216 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1156 EDT ON MAY 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. FLASH FLOODING IS A THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF MULTIPLE STORMS OVER THE SAME AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED THIS EVENING. PERIODS
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

***USE TRANSPORT WINDS AS AN ESTIMATE FOR WIND SPEED AT 300 FT***

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND A
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................40 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 80 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-5100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1000-2500 FT
                    AGL LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 24
                    MPH LATE.
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............64  64  69  72  82  85
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............SCH SCH CHC CHC DEF DEF
TEMP................79  80  81  81  80  79
RH..................64  60  58  58  58  60
20 FT WIND DIR......210 200 170 170 180 120
20 FT WIND SPD......6   7   9   10  8   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  15  20  20  15  10
SURFACE WND DIR.....SW  S   S   S   S   SE
SURFACE WND SPD.....8   9   11  12  10  7
SURFACE WND GST.....10  15  20  20  15  10
CWR.................40  40  50  50  80  80

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH...BECOMING EAST 6 TO
                    11 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................80 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 70 PERCENT IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO 60
                    PERCENT...INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 16 TO 23 MPH.
SURFACE WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH...BECOMING EAST 6 TO
                    11 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............87  91  93  93  94  95  96  97  97  98  98  99
WEATHER COV.........DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............DEF DEF DEF DEF ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
TEMP................77  75  74  72  70  69  68  66  65  65  64  64
RH..................64  66  69  71  73  73  76  81  84  84  87  87
20 FT WIND DIR......020 080 070 080 090 100 090 080 080 080 080 080
20 FT WIND SPD......7   9   6   5   6   8   7   6   5   5   5   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  20  10  10  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10
SURFACE WND DIR.....N   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
SURFACE WND SPD.....9   11  7   6   8   10  9   7   6   6   6   7
SURFACE WND GST.....15  20  10  10  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10
CWR.................80  80  80  80  70  70  60  60  70  70  70  70

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS. A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................70 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 80 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 21 TO 26 MPH.
SURFACE WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 11 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............99  100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
WEATHER COV.........LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP................64  62  63  63  64  64  65  66  67  66  65  64
RH..................87  93  90  90  87  90  87  84  81  84  84  87
20 FT WIND DIR......080 080 080 080 070 060 060 060 060 060 060 060
20 FT WIND SPD......6   7   8   8   8   8   8   9   9   9   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
SURFACE WND DIR.....E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
SURFACE WND SPD.....8   9   10  10  10  10  10  11  11  11  10  9
SURFACE WND GST.....10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
CWR.................70  70  70  70  70  70  80  80  80  80  80  80

$$
FORECASTER...NV
REQUESTED BY...BEN KRAKAUER
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20150531.EAST3.02/OKX



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