Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FNUS73 KPAH 161527
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG SPRING FIELDS...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1027 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 CDT ON JULY 16.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA ON THURSDAY. BIGGEST BURNING ISSUES MAY COME WITH SMOKE
DISPERSION...AS SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE
WEAK.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........76 AT IGNITION...MAX 78.
RH..................41 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 2 TO 7 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............76  77  77  76  75
RH..............41  39  39  44  50
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..3   3   3   3   2
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...6.5 6.6 6.6 6.8 6.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.N   N   N   N   NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.6   6   5   3   2
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 56.
RH..................MAX 97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 4 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300-6200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 2 TO 5 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............74     66     62     60     59     57
RH..............56     76     88     92     96     97
20 FT WIND......NE 4   E 2    E 2    NE 2   NE 2   N 1
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....6200   2100   BLW100 300    300    BLW100
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 2   W 3    W 3    W 5    NW 5   NW 5
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      4

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 76.
RH..................MIN 46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100-4600 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    5000-6200 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
                    AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 3400-4200 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 3
                    TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM      10 AM     1 PM      4 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....                    S CHC     S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
TEMP............59        68        74        75
RH..............91        66        52        50
20 FT WIND......N 1       E 4G5     S 4G5     S 4G5
MIX HGT (FT)....300       4600      6200      4200
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 3      S 3       S 7       S 9
CWR.............0         0         0         0
HAINES INDEX....4         4         4         4

$$
FORECASTER...MEFFERT
REQUESTED BY...MATT BRICKNER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140716.BIGSP.01/PAH






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