Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FNUS71 KPHI 010906
FWSPHI

SPOT FORECAST FOR CRESCO COMPLEX FIRE...CRESCO COMPLEX SITL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
506 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0503 EDT ON MAY 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
BETTER DEFINED LOW WILL PASS OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MORE LOW
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
                    PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MIN HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................80 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 90 PERCENT IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 100 PERCENT IN THE
                    MORNING...DECREASING TO 90 PERCENT IN THE
                    MORNING...DECREASING TO 80 PERCENT...DECREASING
                    TO 70 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 60 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1400...THEN 9-15 STRIKES.
WIND SHIFT..........NO SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFTS EXPECTED.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............99  99  98  98  98  98  97  97  96  94  93  91
WEATHER COV.........DEF DEF PDS PDS PDS PDS PDS PDS PDS LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP................44  43  43  43  43  44  44  45  45  45  45  46
RH..................82  84  85  84  82  80  81  82  82  83  84  85
20 FT WIND DIR......E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
CWR.................80  90  100 100 90  90  90  80  80  70  70  60
CHC OF PCPN (%).....80  90  100 100 90  90  90  80  80  70  70  60
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING. SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42.
MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
CWR.................60 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO 60
                    PERCENT...DECREASING TO 50 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 2300...THEN NO TSTMS.
WIND SHIFT..........

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............89     85     88     90     90     92
WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
TEMP................46     46     46     45     45     45
RH..................86     89     90     93     96     98
20 FT WIND..........SE 6   SE 6   SE 5   E 5    E 3    E 3
20 FT WIND GUST.....10                          5      5
CWR.................60     70     70     60     60     50
CHC OF PCPN (%).....60     70     70     60     60     50
LAL.................4      4      4      1      1      1

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING.
CWR.................60 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT...THEN
                    DECREASING TO 60 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
WIND SHIFT..........NO SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFTS EXPECTED.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............94     94     87     79     72     69
WEATHER COV.........LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............
TEMP................46     49     54     57     60     60
RH..................93     85     74     71     67     62
20 FT WIND..........E 2    E 2    SE 3   SW 5   W 6    W 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      5             10     10
CWR.................60     70     70     60     60     60
CHC OF PCPN (%).....60     70     70     60     60     60
LAL.................1      1      1      1      1      1

$$
FORECASTER...OHARA
REQUESTED BY...JOHN HINTZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160501.CRESC.01/PHI


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