Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FNUS75 KRIW 111643
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BATES CREEK...BLM CAD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
943 AM MST WED JAN 11 2017

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MST ON JANUARY 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH AND IS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN CASPER...THE WYDOT OBSERVATION STATION WEST OF ALCOVA CALLED
PATHFINDER...AND THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE COUNTY.  NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT THE WIND IS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 GUSTING TO 20 MPH.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT THE WIND IS SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 25 GUSTING TO 40
MPH.  NORTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURE ARE AROUND 3 ABOVE WITH AN RH OF
85 PERCENT.  SOUTH OF THE FRONT THE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 32 WITH AN
RH OF 85 PERCENT.  THE OBSERVATION DENSITY OVER THE AREA IS TOO LOW
TO TELL FOR SURE IF THE COLD FRONT IS NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE BURN AREA
BUT WILL ASSUME THE BURN IS JUST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WOULD LIKELY
MOVE NORTH OF THE BURN AREA BY 1500 WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING...A WIND
SHIFT FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND AN INCREASE FROM 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH...TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN REMAIN NORTH OF THE BURN AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...C.BAKER

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SNOW LIKELY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....30-33.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-65 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH SHIFTING
                    TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 40 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN
SNOW.               60 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST SOUTHEAST 14 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200 THEN FAIR (26000 TO 36000 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SNOW EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....9-12.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-88 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    4-7 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH BY 2300.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 15 MPH BY 2300.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (9700-10900 KNOT-FT).

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....23-26.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-65 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 20 TO
                    25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100 THE FAIR (36000 TO 46000 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND
8. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.FRIDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 8. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. WINDS
SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 10. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.  SOUTHWEST AROUND
18 MPH.
.SUNDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 7. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST AROUND
18 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...C.BAKER
REQUESTED BY...ZEB MCWILLIAMS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1700297.0/RIW
.EMAIL ZMCWILLI@BLM.GOV



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