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AGUS71 KTAR 201634
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1233 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z ( 10 AM EDT ) SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WARM FRONT
DRAPED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE
CANADA SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. EAST OF THIS FRONT...RAIN..
.DRIZZLE AND FOG CONTINUE TO OCCUR AND WILL LIKELY LAST INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS OF MAINE. TO THE WEST...THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM IN QUEBEC WILL SAG
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS COLD FRONT IS WEAK BUT SHOULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS IN NEW YORK STATE EAST
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE JUST
SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS...WE EXPECT
THEM TO BE CAPABLE OF PUTTING DOWN HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME.
:
BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STALLED OUT FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE
AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH 8
AM EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN
THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER OVER
COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...LONG ISLAND AND FAR NORTHERN MAINE
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHERE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IS EXPECTED.
:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A WARM FRONT
BROUGHT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM PORTIONS
OF EXTREME EASTERN NEW YORK STATE INTO MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRED FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE WHERE
BASIN AVERAGES OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES WERE REPORTED. THE HEAVIEST
POINT RAINFALL REPORTED INTO THE NERFC FOR THE PAST 24-HOUR PERIOD
ENDING AT 8 AM EDT THIS MONDAY MORNING CAME FROM NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WHERE PITTSBURG REPORTED 1.10 INCHES.
:
MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUE TO RIDE INTO THE NERFC SERVICE AREA BRINGING
WITH THEM THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE SEVERAL INCHES MAY FALL THROUGH FRIDAY
.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT FELL FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
TO CENTRAL MAINE HAS PRODUCED SOME MINOR RIVER RESPONSES IN THE
UPPER CONNECTICUT, UPPER MERRIMACK, AND NORTHERN & WESTERN MAINE
BASINS.  THESE RESPONSES WILL BE LIMITED TO RISES OF JUST OVER 1
FOOT BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY MORNING.
:
RIVER RESPONSES EXPECTED AT MANY OF THE ADIRONDACK FORECAST POINTS
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MANY RISES UP TO 2
FEET IN THAT AREA.  THE REST OF THE NERFC REGION IS EXPECTED TO
SEE EITHER CONTINUED STEADY ELEVATION TRENDS OR MINOR RISES OF
UNDER 1 FOOT OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
:
RIVER FLOWS ACROSS THE NERFC REGION, AS SEEN ON THE USGS
WATERWATCH WEB PAGE, ARE GENERALLY BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR
MID-MAY.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY FOR THE RIVERS IN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW
YORK FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP.SHTML
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:          RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                   BILL SAUNDERS