Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 072147
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
447 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081045-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
447 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD AND HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM SOUTHWEST
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  TROPICAL
MOISTURE  LIFTING OVER THAT BOUNDARY  WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  RAINFALL RATES OF
ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON...LOCAL AMOUNTS OF TWO INCHES
PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND ENHANCE RAINFALL
RATES.  THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA  AND  NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM  WILL  LIKELY BE IN THE 3 TO 5
INCH RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.  LOCAL RAIN AMOUNTS MAY REACH 10 INCHES IN PERSISTENT
HEAVY RAIN BANDS OR REPEAT THUNDERSTORMS.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FROM INTERSTATE 40 SOUTH WILL
PRODUCE SOME WIND GUST TO AROUND 40 MILES AN HOUR.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED. SOME WATER RESCUES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE FRONTAL WAVE.   THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM  POTENTIAL
BECOMES CONFINED TO AREAS  NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER... BEFORE
EXITING THE REGION FRIDAY.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND...LEADING TO SEVERAL DAYS OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$


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