Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 240724
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
224 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A ridge is building across the eastern Gulf as a strong low
pressure system over the SW North Atlantic continues to move
farther east. Southerly return flow is on increase across the
western Gulf. Latest scatterometer and surface data show SE-S
winds in the 15-20 kt west of 94W. These winds are occuring ahead
of a cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf today. This front
will move across the northern Gulf through Saturday night, then
lift northward as a warm front Sunday, ahead of a low pressure
system tracking across Texas and Louisiana and north of the area
Monday and Tuesday. Fresh to strong winds are briefly expected
behind the cold front on Saturday, with seas building up to 6-7
ft. Then, moderate to fresh southerly winds will dominate the
western Gulf on Sunday, spreading eastward across the remainder
of the Gulf on Monday. Seas will remain generally below 6 ft. By
Monday evening, expect increasing winds to 20 kt near and to the
NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects induced by a
thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to near 17N81W. A pre-
frontal trough stretches from Haiti to near 15N78W. The cold
front will move east today while weakening. Gentle to moderate
westerly winds are noted over the NW Caribbean in association
with the large circulation of the strong low pressure system
over the SW North Atlantic. Fresh to locally strong southerly
winds are currently seen in the Windward Passage ahead of front,
but mainly moderate to fresh winds are expected today across this
area.

Strong nocturnal flow is expected along the NW coast of Colombia
on Saturday night, with gale conditions possible on Sunday and
Monday nights. Fresh to locally strong NE flow is expected across
the north-central Caribbean, and to the lee of Cuba, including
also the Windward Passage on Sunday night. Fresh to strong
trades are expected across the east and central Caribbean,
including also the Gulf of Honduras on Monday night. At that
time, moderate E-SE winds are forecast across the NW Caribbean
and near the coast of Nicaragua. Seas are forecast to build to
13-14 ft near the coast of Colombia Monday night into early
Tuesday morning with the gale force winds.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence.

A 1004mb gale center is located east of Florida near 28.5N78W.
The most recent scatterometer data indicate gale force winds
within about 120 nm north of the associated warm front that
extends from 28N71W to 27N69W. Fresh to strong winds are also
noted ahead of the cold front, particularly from 20N-27N between
68W-72W. The low will move slowly NE today with a swath of gale
force SE winds NE of the low center, along the warm front
affecting the forecast zones AMZ113 and AMZ115, where a gale
warning will remain in effect today. The low will drag a trailing
cold front across the SE Bahamas today. Marine conditions will
improve this upcominng weekend as the low pressure moves N of the
area. On Saturday, mainly moderate SW-W winds will dominate much
of the forecast region, with seas of 7-8 ft across forecast zone
AMZ115 and seas of 5-6 ft elsewhere east of the Bahamas.

The next cold front will move into the NW waters by Saturday
night and sweep across the north waters through Monday while
weakening. Fresh to locally strong NW are briefly expected behind
the front Saturday night into early Sunday morning with seas of
6-7 ft. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds will set-up across the NW
waters Monday and Tuesday.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
 Gale Warning today.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
 Gale Warning today.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.


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