Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
AGXX40 KNHC 270744
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
244 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND RECENT ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW-N WINDS
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS E OF 87W...AND FRESH BETWEEN 87W
AND 90W. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ALTIMETER DATA SAMPLED 6-10 FT
SEAS E OF 90W. HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 25N96W AT 1024 MB CONTROLS
THE WESTERN GULF. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE
W OF 90W ALONG WITH 3-5 FT SEAS BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...AND 1-3 FT
SEAS W OF 94W.

CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS MORNING WHILE THE HIGH REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE WESTERN GULF. BY WED MORNING...HIGH PRES
OVER THE SE UNITED STATES BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
REGIME ACROSS THE BASIN WITH MODERATE RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE
WATERS BY THU MORNING ALONG WITH 3-5 FT SEAS IN THE SE GULF AND
1-3 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT THU.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE THU NIGHT
AND WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE ALONG 27N THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRES
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH RETURN FLOW
DOMINATING THE GULF WATERS YET AGAIN SAT INCREASING TO MODERATE
TO FRESH LEVELS SAT EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE SAT NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA ACROSS WESTERN
JAMAICA TO SE NICARAGUA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS BEHIND THIS FEATURE
REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO 20N88W. OTHER THAN A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...LITTLE DIRECT IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TIGHT RIDGING IS IN THE PROCESS OF SETTING UP ALONG INTERIOR
CENTRAL AMERICA WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE W
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THESE
WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS
UP TO 8-10 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THU ALLOWING FOR
DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NE-E BY FRI MORNING.

NE-E WINDS ARE PULSING TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS NEAR THE NW COAST
OF COLOMBIA DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. WINDS WILL ONLY
PULSE TO FRESH LEVELS FROM AROUND SUNRISE TODAY THROUGH WED...
THEN WILL INCREASE BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS AND EXPAND TO
MORE OFFSHORE WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...PEAKING AT 30 KT
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS EVEN HINTS AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 06-12 UTC ON
SUN WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA BY LATE WED
NIGHT...DIMINISHING BY LATE THU NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEAS OF 4-7 FT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE WEEK...EXCEPT BRIEFLY
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE NE PORTION THU THROUGH THU NIGHT AS SOME
NW SWELL PROPAGATES INTO THE AREA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...THE EASTERN FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N64W TO EASTERN CUBA
NEAR 21N75W...AND THE WESTERN FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N69W TO
22N79W. PLENTIFUL CONVECTION EXISTS N OF 24N WITHIN 240 NM AHEAD
OF THE FIRST FRONT. ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES
CAPTURED A LARGE SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N W OF THE
WESTERN FRONT TO 79W...WITH AN AREA OF S-SW GALE FORCE WINDS N OF
28N E OF THE WESTERN FRONT TO 62W. SEAS ARE QUICKLY BUILDING WITH
THIS LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND WILL MAX OUT AROUND 20 FT
NEAR 31N73W LATER THIS MORNING.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT AS
THE FRONTS MERGE AND PUSH E OF 65W. ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT OR
TROUGH IS ALREADY MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST TWO FRONTS AND WILL
REACH FROM 31N63W TO 23N73W BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT
ONLY FRESH NW-N WINDS BEHIND IT BY THEN ALONG WITH 8-10 FT SEAS.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THAT HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SE REACHING
31N74W BY THU EVENING...THEN WILL WEAKEN AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

THAT FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO THE FLORIDA SPACE COAST BY
FRI AFTERNOON...QUICKLY RACING EASTWARD AND EXTENDING FROM 30N65W
TO 28N80W LATE FRI NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND IT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 FT. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN
AS IT LIES DOWN ALONG 27N BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
BEHIND IT...HOWEVER FRESH NORTHERLY SWELLS OF 8-12 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF
27N THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
 GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
 GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
 GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.