Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
105
AGXX40 KNHC 231910
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
210 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A scatterometer pass from 15 UTC indicated a broad area of winds
to gale force over the northeast Gulf, following a strong cold
front that shifted east of the region earlier today. Seas were up
to 20 ft earlier this morning at a buoy off Tampa. Seas in excess
of 12 ft are in place over much of the Gulf north of 22N and east
of 94W. Winds and seas will diminish across the central and
eastern Gulf through late Tuesday as high pressure builds
eastward across the Gulf in the wake of the front.

A cold front moving across the southern plains will approach the
region Tuesday. Southerly return flow will increase to fresh to
strong in the west central Gulf by Tuesday afternoon as the
pressure gradient tightens between the front and the high
pressure exiting to the east. The front will move into the
northwest Gulf Wednesday morning, reaching from the Florida big
bend to 22N96W to the Chivela Pass by Thursday morning, then
stalling and weakening from the Straits of Florida to the
southern Gulf along 22N by Friday morning. Fresh to strong
northerly flow will arrive behind the front, with the strongest
winds near Gale force offshore of Mexico from Tampico southward
Wednesday night. Winds will weaken behind the front throughout
the basin by Thursday night as the front begins to stall out.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

Strong winds and building seas over the northwest Caribbean accompany
a cold front reaching from central Cuba to eastern Honduras.
Fresh to strong northwest flow and building seas in northwest
swell will filter through the Yucatan Channel through the
afternoon, with fresh to strong southwest flow north of 20N south
of Cuba. The front will reach from the Windward Passage to
eastern Jamaica to near the Nicaragua/Costa Rica by Tuesday
morning, then will stall from the northeast Caribbean to south of
Jamaica to Costa Rica by early Wednesday where it will gradually
dissipate. Winds will weaken behind the front by late tonight,
however a surge of 20-25 kt is expected in the offshore waters
near the Honduras/ Nicaragua border, with fresh to strong
southwest winds also expected ahead of the front through the
Windward Passage as the front nears there.

Light and variable winds will prevail across the basin by
Tuesday night as the front weakens and begins to stall.
Northeast to east trade wind flow will return by Wednesday night
and winds will increase to fresh to strong offshore of northwest
Colombia Wednesday night through the end of the week. Seas will
build to 8-11 ft as the area of trades expands Thursday night and
Friday with low pressure over northern Colombia deepening
slightly.

Over the tropical north Atlantic waters, expect mainly gentle to
moderate trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft to continue through the
forecast period. The only change will be the decaying southerly
portion of the cold front which will sink south across the
waters to the north of 15N Thursday, causing winds to briefly
shift near the boundary.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A large line of thunderstorms is active ahead of a strong cold
front reaching from 31N74W to central Cuba this afternoon.
Winds to gale force accompany the front, both ahead of and
following the front north of 24N. Seas are estimated to be 12 to
16 ft along the front north of 26N, and 8 to 12 ft elsewhere over
open waters west of 70W.

The front will shift east and reach from 31N68W to 27N68W to the
Windward Passage by early Tuesday morning, and from 31N59W to
26N58W to the Virgin Islands by early Wednesday morning. The
gales will persist ahead of the front through late Tuesday night,
then diminish thereafter. A broad area of lingering 8-13 ft seas
and strong northwest winds covering the area east of Bahamas
will subside from west to east through Wednesday night as high
pressure builds eastward behind the front.

The next cold front will move off the southeast coast of the
United States early Thursday, moving across the waters off
northeast Florida and north of the Bahamas through the end of
the week. Fresh to near gale force winds will accompany the
front both ahead of and behind it across the waters north of
27N, with seas building back to 7-10 ft north of 27N into Friday,
then subsiding again through Saturday as the front stalls and
weakens from 31N65W through the central Bahamas.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     Gale Warning today into tonight.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     Gale Warning today into tonight.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     Gale Warning tonight into Tue.
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK...
     Gale Warning today.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     Gale Warning today into tonight.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     Gale Warning tonight into Tue.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.