Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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769
AGXX40 KNHC 021709
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
109 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
RETRACT E TODAY AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF NW GULF WATERS
AGAIN THIS MORNING IN AN AREA OF LIGHTER WIND BETWEEN THE FRONT
AND ABOUT 90W. VSBY HAS INCREASED FROM 1-3 TO WIDESPREAD 3-5NM
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED 1-3 ATTM. EXPECT A SMALL AREA OF REMNANT FOG
ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL WATERS ALONG 90W TONIGHT JUST AHEAD THE
FRONTAL WIND SHIFT. THE ARRAY OF GUIDANCE HAS FALLEN IN LINE
SINCE YESTERDAY...AND NOW MOVES THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE
FRONT A LITTLE FASTER ACROSS THE SW GULF WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO REACH FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON
TUE...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA ON
TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONT PASSING E OF ALL GULF WATERS ON WED
NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR 27N95W ON WED NIGHT AND
MEANDER IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THU WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ESE
TO THE FL STRAITS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA ON THU
NIGHT WITH A N-S RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 91W SETTING UP MODERATE-FRESH
SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF W OF THE RIDGE ON FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. THE LOCALIZED LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
ENHANCEMENT OF FRESH NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL RESUME ON SAT AFTERNOON.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRESH E-SE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 5-
7 FT SEAS. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX WITH THE E FLOW
DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA E
OF 75W BY LATE TUE. FRESH E-SE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN S OF 18N W OF 85W THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO RELAX OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHT-GENTLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW FORECAST ON WED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON WED NIGHT...AND REACHING FROM E CUBA
TO FAR NE NICARAGUA LATE FRI BEFORE STALLING...NOTING THAT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS MOVING THE FRONT SLOWER THAN
BEFORE. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND NOW
SUGGESTS MODERATE-FRESH N FLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT BRIEFLY ON
THU NIGHT...MOSTLY ACROSS YUCATAN BASIN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. GLOBAL CONSENSUS FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO 27N65W THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY TO 28N72W. THE COLD FRONT SEGMENT WILL STALL BETWEEN
55-65W TODAY...WITH THE REMNANTS DRIFTING BACK W OF 65W AND
QUICKLY DISSIPATING ON TUE. A NE TO SW RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL WILL SHIFT S TO NEAR FORT PIERCE FL ON
TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FL COAST LATE
TUE NIGHT...PRECEDED BY FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE N OF 27N E
OF THE FRONT AND INCREASING TO STRONG N OF 30N ON WED AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N70W TO
NE CUBA ON THU NIGHT AND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO E CUBA ON FRI
NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO STALL FROM 27N60W TO HISPANIOLA ON SAT
NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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