Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
714 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. TUTT LOW NEAR
24N 62W EXTENDS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
THIS IS A WELL ORGANIZED AND FAIRLY DEEP PERTURBATION...REFLECTING
QUITE WELL AT MID/LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH A CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW AND AN INDUCED INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADES.
HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF 24N.

THE TUTT LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER LOW
FORMS JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY IN THE CYCLE. THE LATTER IS
TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WHILE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES/EASTERN CARIBBEAN. BUILDING RIDGE IS TO STRENGTHEN
THE TRADE WINDS CAP LATER THIS EVENING...AND THIS IS TO THEN HOLD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TODAY. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BUILD ALONG
THE CORDILLERA LATER THIS MORNING...WITH MOST INTENSE ACROSS
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THIS AREA THE
NMM VERSION OF THE HRWRF IS SHOWING MAXIMA OF 2-3 INCHES...WHILE
THE ARW VERSION PEAKS AT 1-2 INCHES. SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS. THEREAFTER...AS THE CAP INVERSION
STRENGTHENS...EXCEPT FOR THE OCCASIONAL TRADE WIND SHOWER OVER THE
VI/EASTERN PUERTO RICO...THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)
VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$




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