Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 271132
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
632 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. POLAR FRONT
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC-GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO LIFT OVER
BROAD RIDGE TO THE EAST. AS THEY COLLIDE...THE MODELS FORECAST
GRADUAL EROSION OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS...EXPECTING SURGING EASTERLY TRADES TO GRADUALLY WANE.
MEANWHILE...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 20-25KT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. IN A STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
CAP...THESE ARE TO FAVOR ADVECTION OF SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES AND GENERATION OF STREAMERS
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. OVER THE VI/EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS
IS TO RESULT IN LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BRIEF SHOWERS...WITH
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS TO LIMIT TO EL YUNQUE...CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY FAVOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...IT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO IMPEDE THE SEA/LAND BREEZE
CYCLE TO ESTABLISH OVER THE LARGER ISLANDS.

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
NANDA...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$




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