Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 191053
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
653 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2017

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM SEP 19/06
UTC: HURRICANE MARIA...A CAT 5 HURRICANE...IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE
DIRECTLY OVER SAINT CROIX AND NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. IN THIS
TRACK...IN ADDITION TO STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...THE USVI WILL BE
FULLY EXPOSED TO THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE
HURRICANE...PUTTING THESE ISLANDS AT A HIGHER RISK OF SEVERE
CONVECTION/TORNADOS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO ACCOMPANY THIS CYCLONE...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 8-12 INCHES AND MAXIMA RANGING BETWEEN 15-25 INCHES. THE MOST
INTENSE IS TO AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...SAINT
CROIX...VIEQUES...CULEBRA. THIS FORECAST IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE
NOAA STAR HYDRO ESTIMATOR...WITH SENSOR SHOWING 6 HRS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6-8 INCHES NEAR THE EYE CORE.

FOLLOWING THE HURRICANE...AS A DEEP LAYER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...FEEDER BAND CONVERGENCE
WILL THREATEN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOW MOST ACTIVE CLUSTERING ALONG THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...WITH
DAILY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES. STRONG FORCING AND RISK OF
ECHO TRAINING COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...PEAKING
AROUND 6 INCHES.

GUY...NMS (BELIZE)
RIVAS...SENAMHI (PERU)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$





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