Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 191122
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
622 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ITS FOOTHOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS IS TO INITIALLY ANCHOR ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER THE
YUCATAN/SOUTHERN MEXICO. THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING THE HIGH RELOCATES
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...SETTLING OVER PUERTO RICO/VI EARLY
ON SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH THEN MEANDERS WEST OVER HISPANIOLA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN EXPECTED TO HOLD
THROUGH MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. AT 850 HPA...A CLOSED HIGH RELOCATES
SOUTH OF BERMUDA EARLY IN THE CYCLE...TO MEANDER TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO SUSTAIN AN
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL SUSTAIN A STRONG TRADE WINDS CAP.
EMBEDDED IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES...SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS ARE
TO ADVECT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM TIME-TO-TIME...TO FAVOR
PERIODS OF LIGHT CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON MOST ACTIVE
OVER THE VI AND NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY TO MONDAY AS A
WEAK SHEAR LINE ENTERS THE BASIN. BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE TO GENERALLY PEAK AT LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
NANDA...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$




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