Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 301504
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1104 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

VALID 12Z THU JUN 02 2016 - 12Z MON JUN 06 2016


...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT AND PATTERN
HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

A TRANSITION BACK TO A TROUGH EAST/RIDGE WEST PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  THE
REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OFFSHORE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM NHC
AND AFFECTED NWS FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFO ON BONNIE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE EASTERN MIDWEST THROUGH THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY.  AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES WILL MAKE ITS WAY VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS
DURING THE PERIOD.

FARTHER WEST...A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A WESTERLY JET OVER
THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY AS A THE RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHWARD AND ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVES MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.  WHILE THE
ENSEMBLE SUITE ARE PRETTY UNIFORM IN DEPICTING THIS
TRANSITION...THERE ARE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN DIFFERENT MODEL
SIMULATIONS WITH THE ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN/UKMET REPRESENTING THE LOW
AMPLITUDE SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS/GEFS/NAEFS REPRESENTED A MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN.  AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION WAS USED DUE TO
THE SPLIT IN SOLUTIONS. THERE IS ALSO A SEPARATE TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THE WEEKEND WITH
THE EUROPEAN/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BEING SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF THE
GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS.

ASSESSING UNCERTAINTY...THE TEXAS TROUGH APPEARS TO BE A HIGHLY
PROBABLE FEATURE WITH THE EMPHASIS FOR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. THE INTERACTION WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD TEXAS COULD SIGNIFY A CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL.  WITH BONNIES REMNANTS LOOKING STILL TO BE
AFFECTING PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT TO ITS WEST...SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE REMNANT LOW IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH
THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE CENTER OF WHATS LEFT OF
BONNIE.

MORE UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH THE NEXT INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT.  WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE PATTERN SHIFT
IS HIGH...THE RELATIVE LOCATIONS OF FRONTAL FEATURES GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST OF THE AMPLITUDES OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE LATER OCCURRENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD DIMINISHES THE
PREDICTABILITY.  AT PRESENT...WOULD LIST THE FORECAST AS AVERAGE
IN PREDICTABILITY PRIMARILY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PATTERN CHANGE
FORECAST. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES.

KOCIN













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