Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 271547
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1046 AM EST MON FEB 27 2017

VALID 12Z THU MAR 02 2017 - 12Z MON MAR 06 2017

...OVERVIEW/PREFERENCES...

A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE
ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.  THE PATTERN WILL FLATTEN DURING THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER, AN INCOMING TROUGH
MOVING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO
THIS REGION AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  BY MONDAY, THIS TROUGH WILL
SLIDE TOWARD THE PLAINS WHILE BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED.


THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON AN ECMWF-BASED BLEND AND CONTINUITY
ALONG WITH SOME OF THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN.  THE 06Z GFS/GEFS MEAN
WAS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THOSE RUNS ALSO HAD A DIFFERENT HANDLE ON THE SURFACE LOW EJECTING
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS BEING
FARTHER NORTHWEST AND MUCH DEEPER THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. IN
KEEPING WITH CONTINUITY AND THE TREND, THE 00Z GFS/GEFS WERE
BETTER OPTIONS.


...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, A LIGHT MIX
OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS AS THE
PATTERN SHIFTS FROM TROUGHING TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW.  HOWEVER, WITH
THE INCOMING TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY,
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN RAMPING UP THROUGHOUT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY.  AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES,
MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW IS STILL
UNCERTAIN.  LOOKING TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS, A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE ON SUNDAY TO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A FLUX OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND
POTENTIALLY FIRING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.


REINHART

$$





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